金融世界 第十二講

在上一講中我們提到英國經濟學家凱恩斯的經濟理論曾在經濟學領域掀起了一場革命。他認為經濟衰退是由對商品和服務的有效需求不足而引起的，政府可以對此采取措施，影響經濟的發展。二次大戰后各國政府紛紛接受這一理論，承擔起對經濟運作的責任。

今天我們要介紹一下經濟學界對凱恩斯經濟理論的不同看法。

甚至在凱恩斯理論的鼎盛時期，也一直存在著對這一理論的爭執。一九七六年獲得諾貝爾經濟學獎的美國教授弗里德曼就是持有不同看法的學者之一。

在聽弗里德曼教授講述他的觀點之前，我們先來學幾個他要在談話中使用的英文詞匯：

1 Keynesian orthodoxy 凱恩斯傳統理論
2 monetary policy 貨幣政策，指一國中央銀行對貨幣和信貸的調節管理政策。
3 easy money 低息貸款，銀根松動
4 misinterpretation 曲解
5 Federal Reserve system 聯邦儲備系統

下面我們聽一下弗里德曼教授對凱恩斯理論的不同看法：

In the first place the reason Keynesian orthodoxy came into so much favour was because of a widespread misinterpretation of the Great Depression. And it was widely interpreted as showing that monetary policy couldn't work. It was interpreted that way because of course all of the central bankers kept saying that they were engaged in very easy money and that the economy was declining in spite of them, their actions, and not because of their actions.

首先，凱恩斯理論之所以這樣受寵，是因為廣泛流傳的對大蕭條的錯誤解釋。大蕭條被普遍認為表明了貨幣政策的無效，因為所有中央銀行官員都堅持說銀根已經放得很松。盡管他們采取了行動，經濟仍然衰退，而衰退并不是由于他們的行動造成的。

But we found that the situation was very different. Though in our opinion the Great Depression was not a sign of the failure of monetary policy as it was so interpreted, it was not a result of a failure of the market system as was widely interpreted, it was rather a consequence of a very serious government failure, a failure in the monetary authorities to do what they'd initially been set up to do.

但是我們發現的情況卻非常不同。盡管我們認為大蕭條并非如同它被解釋的那樣是貨幣政策失敗的標志，它也不像人們普遍認為的那樣是市場機制失敗的結果。確切地說它是政府嚴重失敗的后果，是貨幣管理當局執行當初建立它們這些機構時所賦予它們的職責的失敗。

下面我們再完整聽一遍弗里德曼的這段談話。（略）

弗里德曼教授接下來進一步談了凱恩斯理論的影響和他自己對這一理論的不同看法。他使用了這樣一些詞匯：

1 the effect 作用，影響
2 intellectual community 知識界，學術界
3 cut tax 減稅
4 government deficit 政府赤字
5 the House of Commons 議會下院

弗里德曼教授說：

The effect was primarily, I would say, after World War Two. The effect was to encourage politicians to do what politicians love to do - spend money and not raise taxes.

我覺得（凱恩斯理論）在二次世界大戰以后產生了根本性的影響。這種影響鼓勵政治家們去做他們喜愛做的事：花錢但不增加稅收。

The Keynesian theory, not as Keynes himself necessarily presented it, but as it was interpreted both in the intellectual community and in the media and the press, said that if you have high unemployment, the way to solve that is to cut taxes and increase government spending - at least create a government deficit.

我們所說的凱恩斯理論，不一定是凱恩斯自己原來提出的那套理論，而是經過學術界和新聞媒體做了解釋的理論。這種理論認為對付高失業問題的辦法是削減稅收和增加政府開支，至少要在政府預算中造成赤字。

Now the government could have created the deficit entirely by cutting taxes and not increasing spending, but if you're sitting in the House of Commons in London or in Australia, or in the United States, obviously the thing you'd like to do is to increase spending.

現在政府完全可以通過減稅而不增加開支來造成赤字。但如果你身居倫敦的英國議會下院，或是澳大利亞或美國的議會，很明顯你愿意做的是增加開支。

And so the major effect of the Keynesian orthodoxy in the post-war period was to encourage an expansion in government spending as a fraction of income, and to contribute to the inflation of the 1970s.

因此凱恩斯傳統理論在戰后時期的主要影響在于鼓勵政府增加開支作為人們收入的部分來源，也就促成了一九七十年代的通貨膨脹。

下面我們再完整聽一遍弗里德曼教授的這段談話。（略）

在這一講和上一講中，我們為您簡單介紹了經濟學中曾紅極一時的凱恩斯理論和對這一理論的不同看法。

在結束這一講之前，我們再復習一下今天涉及的一些英文詞匯：

1 Keynesian orthodoxy 凱恩斯傳統理論
2 monetary policy 貨幣政策，指一國中央銀行對貨幣和信貸的調節管理政策
3 easy money 低息貸款，銀根松動
4 misinterpretation 曲解
5 Federal Reserve system 聯邦儲備系統
6 the effect 作用，影響
7 intellectual community 知識界，學術界
8 cut tax 減稅
9 government deficit 政府赤字
10 the House of Commons 議會下院

這次由澳洲廣播電臺中文部為您制作的金融世界節目到這里就播送完了，謝謝您的收聽，我們下一講再會。