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China’s banks granted new loans at the fastest pace on record in January, a sign that Beijing is loosening monetary policy more aggressively in an attempt to bolster the slowing economy.
今年1月，中國各銀行新增貸款速度達到有記錄以來最快，這一跡象表明，中國正在更加積極地放松貨幣政策，以提振日益放緩的經(jīng)濟。
China grew at its slowest pace since 1990 last year, dragged down by a severe downturn in manufacturing and construction, once the main growth drivers.
去年，中國經(jīng)濟增速達到自1990年以來最慢，曾經(jīng)是主要增長推動力的制造業(yè)和建筑業(yè)嚴重低迷，拖累了經(jīng)濟增長。
Policymakers have sought to strike a balance between supporting short-term growth with interest-rate cuts and higher loan volumes without exacerbating longer-term risks from excessive debt. Loan demand from corporate borrowers has also been tepid, as factory owners delay investments amid severe overcapacity in many sectors.
迄今為止，政策制定者希望實現(xiàn)這種平衡：通過降息和增加貸款規(guī)模支持短期增長，同時不加劇過度負債帶來的較長期風險。同時企業(yè)借款人對貸款的需求也顯得乏力，在很多行業(yè)產(chǎn)能嚴重過剩之際，工廠所有者紛紛推遲了投資。
That trend appeared to reverse in January, however, as new local currency bank loans to the real economy soared to a monthly record of Rmb2.5tn ($390bn). Credit from all sources, including bonds and off-balance-sheet lending, was Rmb3.2tn, also a monthly record, as corporate bond issuance hit an all-time high.
然而，這種趨勢似乎在1月逆轉(zhuǎn)，進入實體經(jīng)濟的新增人民幣貸款飆升至2.5萬億元人民幣（合3900億美元）的月度新高。社會融資規(guī)模增量為3.42萬億元人民幣，也創(chuàng)下了月度紀錄，其中企業(yè)債券發(fā)行量達到有史以來最高。
“Judging from recent speeches by top leaders and January’s credit growth, this year policymakers seem to be determined to make the economy grow above their bottom line of 6.5 per cent,” said Larry Hu, China economist at Macquarie Securities.
麥格理證券(Macquarie Securities)中國經(jīng)濟學家胡偉俊(Larry Hu)表示：“根據(jù)最高領導人最近的演講和1月份信貸增速判斷，今年政策制定者似乎決心讓經(jīng)濟增速高于6.5%的底線。”
Residential mortgages helped drive January’s strong lending figure, the latest sign that China’s housing market is gradually recovering from a downturn that began in 2014. However, UBS economist Donna Kwok cautioned that banks are “unlikely” to maintain last month’s record pace, especially while the central bank continues to encourage “prudent credit expansion”.
住房抵押貸款幫助推動了今年1月的強勁放貸數(shù)據(jù)，這一最新跡象表明，中國樓市正從2014年開始的低迷逐漸回暖。然而，瑞銀(UBS)經(jīng)濟學家郭浩莊(Donna Kwok)告誡稱，銀行“不太可能”保持上月的創(chuàng)紀錄貸款增速，特別是在央行繼續(xù)鼓勵“審慎信貸擴張”之際。
January is nearly always the biggest month of the year for lending, as banks have fresh loan quotas to start the calendar year. The timing of this year’s lunar new year holiday is likely to have amplified this seasonality, as banks accelerated lending ahead of the break.
1月幾乎總是一年中放貸規(guī)模最高的月份，因為銀行在每個日歷年的開始擁有新的貸款額度。今年春節(jié)假期所處的時間可能放大了這種季節(jié)效應，因為銀行會在春節(jié)假期之前加快放貸。
Renminbi depreciation may also have boosted demand for loans. In the years when the renminbi was viewed as a one-way bet to appreciate, Chinese companies were eager to borrow in dollars, since the debt burden was expected to be lighter in renminbi terms when the loan came due. Now, the opposite dynamic is at play, and many Chinese companies are borrowing in renminbi to replace foreign currency debt.
人民幣貶值可能也推動了貸款需求。在人民幣匯率被認為只升不降的幾年里，中國企業(yè)希望借入美元，因為他們預期，在貸款到期時，以人民幣計算的貸款負擔會減輕。如今的情況相反，很多中國企業(yè)正借入人民幣，取代外幣貸款。
