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中國(guó)大宗商品需求銳減刺痛全球

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Chile is expanding its largest open-pit copper mine below the northern desert to dig up 1.7 billion additional tons of minerals, even as metal prices plummet around the globe.

智利正在擴(kuò)建該國(guó)北部沙漠下面的最大露天銅礦,以把礦石挖掘量增加17億噸,雖然全球范圍內(nèi)的金屬價(jià)格正在大幅下降。

India is building railroad lines that crisscross the country to connect underused coal mines with growing urban populations, threatening to dump more resources into an already glutted market.

印度正在修建穿越國(guó)家的縱橫交錯(cuò)的鐵路網(wǎng),以把未得到充分利用的煤礦與不斷增長(zhǎng)的城市人口連接起來(lái),同時(shí)威脅著讓更多的資源拋售到一個(gè)已經(jīng)供過(guò)于求的市場(chǎng)。

Australia is increasing natural gas production by roughly 150 percent over the next four years, as energy companies build half a dozen export terminals to serve dwindling demand.

澳大利亞正在擴(kuò)大天然氣的生產(chǎn),產(chǎn)量在未來(lái)的四年中將大約增長(zhǎng)50%,同時(shí)能源公司正在建造六個(gè)出口終端港,盡管需求在日益減少。

Across the commodities landscape, this worrisome mismatch mainly traces back to the same source: China.

跨越整個(gè)大宗商品風(fēng)景線(xiàn)的這種令人擔(dān)憂(yōu)的不匹配景象大都可追溯到同一根源:中國(guó)。

For years, China voraciously gobbled up all manner of metals, crops and fuels as its economy rapidly expanded. Countries and companies, fueled by cheap debt, aggressively broadened their operations, betting that China’s appetite would grow unabated.

多年來(lái),隨著其經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模的迅速擴(kuò)大,中國(guó)以極大的胃口消耗著各種各樣的金屬、農(nóng)作物和燃料。其他國(guó)家和企業(yè)靠廉價(jià)貸款積極擴(kuò)大自己的業(yè)務(wù),他們押賭中國(guó)的胃口會(huì)只增不減。

Now everything has changed.

現(xiàn)在,一切都改變了。

China’s economy is slumping. American companies, struggling to pay their debts as interest rates rise, must keep producing. All the excess is crushing prices, hurting commodity-dependent economies across emerging markets like Brazil and Venezuela and developed countries like Australia and Canada.

中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)正在走下坡路。隨著利率的上升,美國(guó)公司償還債務(wù)的壓力增大,必須不停地生產(chǎn)。這一切所導(dǎo)致的過(guò)剩進(jìn)一步壓低了價(jià)格,傷害了依賴(lài)大宗商品的國(guó)家,不論是像巴西和委內(nèi)瑞拉這樣的新興市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體,還是諸如澳大利亞和加拿大等發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家。

The geopolitical and financial consequences of this shift have shaken investor confidence. Concerns over global growth intensified in recent days, when weakness in China prompted a stock sell-off around the world.

這種轉(zhuǎn)變的地緣政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)后果已經(jīng)動(dòng)搖了投資者的信心。對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的擔(dān)憂(yōu)最近幾天有所加劇,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的疲軟觸發(fā)了一輪全球股票拋售。

The commodities hangover, the dark side of a decade-long boom, could last for a while.

大宗商品過(guò)剩是這十年繁榮的一個(gè)陰暗面,這個(gè)問(wèn)題可能會(huì)持續(xù)一段時(shí)間。

Multibillion-dollar investment decisions made years ago on big projects, like the oil sands fields in Canada and iron ore mines in West Africa, are just getting up and running. Facing huge costs, companies cannot simply shut off projects. So the excess could take years to work through.

多年前做出的數(shù)十億美元的大項(xiàng)目投資決定,比如加拿大的油砂田和西非鐵礦石等項(xiàng)目,才剛剛開(kāi)始運(yùn)行。面對(duì)巨大的成本投入,企業(yè)不可能簡(jiǎn)單地把項(xiàng)目停掉。因此過(guò)剩的產(chǎn)能也許需要好幾年才能消化掉。

The flood of raw materials is pressuring prices, prompting a painful shakeout. Oil companies have laid off an estimated 250,000 workers worldwide. Alpha Natural Resources and other American coal mining companies have filed for bankruptcy protection.

商品價(jià)格正受到原材料大潮的沖擊,這將導(dǎo)致一次痛苦的洗牌。石油公司在世界各地已裁掉了大約25萬(wàn)名工人。阿爾法自然資源(Alpha Natural Resources)及其他美國(guó)煤礦公司也已申請(qǐng)了破產(chǎn)保護(hù)。

Saudi Arabia, a giant energy economy, has had to tap the credit markets as its financial reserves dwindle. Venezuela, an oil-rich nation that went on a spending spree, is struggling to meet $10 billion in debt obligations this year, since 95 percent of export earnings depend on crude.

沙特阿拉伯是一個(gè)以出口能源為主的巨大經(jīng)濟(jì)體,隨著其財(cái)政儲(chǔ)備的減少,不得不求助于信貸市場(chǎng)。石油資源豐富的委內(nèi)瑞拉曾大手大腳地花錢(qián),而今年卻面臨著償還一筆10億美元債務(wù)的困難,因?yàn)槲瘍?nèi)瑞拉95%的出口收入依賴(lài)于原油。

Michael Levi, an energy expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, likened the reversal to a rainfall that first relieved a drought but then created a flood. “Producers ended up being their own worst enemies,” he said. “No one ever worried they would produce too much, but that is exactly what has happened and gotten them into this mess.”

美國(guó)外交關(guān)系委員會(huì)能源專(zhuān)家邁克爾·萊維(Michael Levi)把大宗商品供求關(guān)系的逆轉(zhuǎn)比作久旱后的降雨,雖然雨水一開(kāi)始緩解了干旱,但持續(xù)的降雨卻引發(fā)了洪水。“生產(chǎn)商反而成了自己最大的敵人,”他說(shuō)。“沒(méi)人擔(dān)心他們會(huì)過(guò)多地產(chǎn)生,但這正是所發(fā)生的事情,這讓他們陷入了目前的狀況。”

Lower energy and material prices are often welcomed by consumers. An energy glut has allowed American households to save hundreds of dollars a year on gasoline and heating oil.

較低的能源和材料價(jià)格往往受到消費(fèi)者的歡迎。能源過(guò)剩已經(jīng)讓美國(guó)家庭在一年中省下了數(shù)百美元的汽油和取暖油錢(qián)。

But economists worry that the commodity mess reflects a weakening global economy, lowering the value of trade worldwide and perhaps even pushing some countries into the same kind of deflationary spiral that has hampered the Japanese economy for decades. Global turmoil last summer, stemming from China, prompted the United States to delay raising interest rates until the end of last year.

但經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家擔(dān)心,大宗商品問(wèn)題是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)疲軟的反映,這將導(dǎo)致世界各地貿(mào)易值的減少,甚至?xí)岩恍﹪?guó)家推入日本經(jīng)歷過(guò)的那種通貨緊縮漩渦,通貨緊縮給日本經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)了數(shù)十年的停滯不前。去年夏天從中國(guó)開(kāi)始的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)蕩,迫使美國(guó)推遲其加息計(jì)劃,直到去年年底才開(kāi)始實(shí)施。

“Lower oil prices have not proven to be as stimulative as economic theory once had it,” said Daniel Yergin, the energy historian and vice chairman of the IHS consultancy. “The question is what are weak commodity prices telling us: Is it overinvestment in the past, or signaling a weaker global economy forward? My own feeling is the answer is both.”

“油價(jià)下跌并未被證明具有以前的經(jīng)濟(jì)理論所認(rèn)為的那種刺激作用,”咨詢(xún)公司IHS的副董事長(zhǎng)、能源歷史學(xué)家丹尼爾·耶爾金(Daniel Yergin)說(shuō)。“問(wèn)題是,大宗商品價(jià)格疲軟對(duì)我們有什么啟示:這是過(guò)去的投資過(guò)度呢?還是意味著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的未來(lái)發(fā)展放緩?我本人的感覺(jué)是,答案是兩者兼而有之。”

Commodities have always been subject to booms and busts, rising and falling with the global economy. But China and the cheap debt have changed the equation in some ways.

大宗商品從來(lái)都受繁榮和蕭條的影響,與全球經(jīng)濟(jì)同起同落。但是,中國(guó)、以及廉價(jià)貸款已在某種程度改變了供求關(guān)系的方程。

China’s rapid growth led to an increase in crude oil consumption to 7.5 million barrels a day in 2007, from 5.5 million barrels a day in 2003. It is now the world’s biggest importer of crude, having surpassed the United States. Other commodities have followed a similar pattern.

中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速增長(zhǎng)帶動(dòng)了原油消費(fèi)的直線(xiàn)上升,從2003年的每天550萬(wàn)桶,到2007年的每天750萬(wàn)桶。中國(guó)目前已經(jīng)超過(guò)美國(guó),成為世界上最大的原油進(jìn)口國(guó)。其他大宗商品的情況也基本上類(lèi)似。

The increased demand fueled a surge in prices; copper tripled and zinc doubled over the five-year period ending in 2007. Americans and Europeans found themselves in what amounted to a bidding war for products as diversified as gasoline and coffee.

需求的增加推動(dòng)了價(jià)格的飆升。在截至2007年的五年期間,銅的價(jià)格漲了200%,鋅的價(jià)格翻了一番。美國(guó)人和歐洲人發(fā)現(xiàn),在從汽油到咖啡的各種各樣的產(chǎn)品上,他們實(shí)際上是在打競(jìng)購(gòu)戰(zhàn)。

Then the financial crisis hit in 2008. While the global economy faltered, China continued to grow, buying ever more commodities from developing countries. Those economies, in turn, flourished from the infusion of money.

后來(lái),金融危機(jī)在2008年發(fā)生了。雖然全球經(jīng)濟(jì)受到重創(chuàng),但中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)卻仍在持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),中國(guó)從發(fā)展中國(guó)家購(gòu)買(mǎi)的商品越來(lái)越多。這些國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)由于中國(guó)注入的現(xiàn)金也得到了相應(yīng)的蓬勃發(fā)展。

Peru, with its big bounty of copper and other metals, used its newfound riches to expand its middle class, creating a boom in shopping centers and apartment houses in its capital, Lima. Lagos, Nigeria, experienced the same, benefiting from the high price of oil.

秘魯?shù)你~和其他金屬資源非常豐富,新發(fā)掘的財(cái)富增加了該國(guó)中產(chǎn)階層的基數(shù),首都利馬矗立起一座座購(gòu)物中心和公寓住宅。得益于高企的油價(jià),尼日利亞拉各斯也經(jīng)歷了同樣的繁榮。

The low interest rates, which had been cut to the bone because of the crisis, fueled the boom. The Brazilian energy company Petrobras accumulated $128 billion in debt, doubling its annual borrowing costs over the last three years.

危機(jī)之后的極低利率助長(zhǎng)了這些繁榮。巴西能源公司巴西國(guó)家石油公司(Petrobras)累計(jì)債務(wù)已達(dá)1280億美元,其借貸成本在過(guò)去三年增加了一倍。

Then the commodity story started to change when Chinese growth slipped.

然后,隨著中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的下滑,大宗商品的形勢(shì)開(kāi)始發(fā)生了變化。

In 2015, commodity prices had their worst year since the financial crisis and global slowdown. Nickel, iron ore, palladium, platinum and copper all declined by 25 percent or more. Oil prices have declined by more than 60 percent over the last 18 months. Even corn, oat and wheat prices have sunk.

2015年是自金融危機(jī)和全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩以來(lái),大宗商品價(jià)格表現(xiàn)最糟糕的一年。鎳、鐵礦石、鈀、鉑,銅全線(xiàn)下降了25%或更多。過(guò)去18個(gè)月里,油價(jià)已經(jīng)下跌逾60%。就連玉米、燕麥和小麥的價(jià)格都遭受重挫。

And the commodity slide has continued into this year. At just over $30 a barrel, oil has reached levels not seen in over a decade.

大宗商品價(jià)格的下滑趨勢(shì)延續(xù)到了今年。油價(jià)跌至十年未見(jiàn)的低水平,每桶才30美元出頭。

The bust is made all the more pernicious by rising interest rates, as the Federal Reserve changes gears. Companies that took advantage of the cheap debt to increase production are now stuck with a big bill that will be difficult to cover.

隨著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)改變政策,提高利率,公司遭受的沖擊更加嚴(yán)重。它們利用低成本貸款來(lái)提高產(chǎn)量,現(xiàn)在卻陷入了難以?xún)敻兜拇蠊P債務(wù)。

Freeport-McMoRan is putting the finishing touches on a $4.6 billion expansion of the Cerro Verde copper mine in Peru, which will triple production. The project is so big that it could consume nearly 10 percent of Peru’s electricity.

自由港邁克墨倫銅金礦公司(Freeport-McMoRan)投資46億美元,擴(kuò)建了秘魯賽洛維德的銅礦,目前正在進(jìn)行收尾工作。擴(kuò)建后的銅礦產(chǎn)量將提高兩倍。該項(xiàng)目非常巨大,將消耗秘魯全國(guó)近10%的電力。

With copper prices at their lowest level in seven years, Freeport-McMoRan reported a $3.8 billion loss for the third quarter. The company’s shares have dropped by more than 70 percent over the last year. At the behest of the board, the executive chairman James R. Moffett stepped down at the end of 2015, and the company’s next moves are uncertain.

銅價(jià)跌至七年來(lái)的最低水平,自由港邁克墨倫公司第三季度錄得38億美元的虧損。去年,該公司的股價(jià)跌幅逾70%。在董事會(huì)的要求下,常務(wù)主席詹姆斯· R·莫菲特(James R. Moffett)于2015年底下了臺(tái),該公司還不確定下一步該怎么走。

Although companies are retrenching, they cannot completely retreat. Many new mines, for example, are designed to function at full capacity to keep them operating efficiently. And the sales are necessary to pay the debts incurred to build them.

盡管這些公司正在削減開(kāi)支,項(xiàng)目卻不能完全放棄。例如,很多新礦是按滿(mǎn)負(fù)荷運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)來(lái)設(shè)計(jì)的,以便能高效運(yùn)作。而要償付項(xiàng)目興建時(shí)欠下的債務(wù),就得銷(xiāo)售產(chǎn)品。

At particular risk are coal mines in the United States, Australia, Indonesia and elsewhere. Not only is Chinese demand declining, but rising environmental concerns are also hurting their prospects.

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)特別大的是美國(guó)、澳大利亞、印度尼西亞等地方的煤礦。這不僅是因?yàn)橹袊?guó)的需求在減少,而且日益突顯的環(huán)境問(wèn)題,也令它們前景堪憂(yōu)。

“Raw material producers invest according to current prices without realizing how those prices might affect future demand,” said Michael C. Lynch, president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research, a consultancy. “Now that the demand is declining because of high prices, they have too much capacity, and once it’s built, you can’t unbuild it.”

“原材料生產(chǎn)商是根據(jù)現(xiàn)有價(jià)格來(lái)進(jìn)行投資的,沒(méi)有意識(shí)到這種價(jià)格可能會(huì)對(duì)未來(lái)的需求產(chǎn)生怎樣的影響,”戰(zhàn)略能源和經(jīng)濟(jì)研究公司(Strategic Energy and Economic Research)總裁邁克爾·C·林奇(Michael C. Lynch)說(shuō)。“由于價(jià)格高企,目前需求正在下降,公司產(chǎn)能過(guò)大,而且項(xiàng)目建成之后,就無(wú)法逆轉(zhuǎn)。”

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