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Diamond miners are expected to have to offer more price cuts in 2016 to help the industry clear a backlog of stock and revive sales, according to sector experts.
業內專家表示，預計鉆石礦商將在2016年進一步降價，以幫助行業消化積壓的庫存并提振銷售。
The likely need for lower prices and possible supply cuts will put further strain on the balance sheets of some miners including Anglo American, which owns De Beers, the largest supplier of rough diamonds by value.
可能需要降價加上可能的供應削減，將會讓英美資源集團(Anglo American)等一些礦商的資產負債表進一步承壓。按價值計算為全球最大原鉆供應商的戴比爾斯(De Beers)隸屬英美資源集團旗下。
Having been a rare bright spot for miners as commodity markets softened in 2014, the diamond industry came under severe pressure in 2015 as weakening consumer demand led to a big build-up of stocks and led to sharp falls in rough diamond purchases and prices.
在2014年大宗商品市場陷入低迷之際，鉆石行業成了采礦行業中罕見的亮點，但到了2015年，隨著消費者需求疲弱導致庫存激增、原鉆購買量和價格大幅下跌，鉆石行業承受了巨大的壓力。
Prices for rough diamonds — the mined stones that are then turned into polished gems — fell 18 per cent in the year to November, Moody’s, the rating agency, said this month.
評級機構穆迪(Moody’s)12月時表示，在截止2015年11月的一年里，原鉆價格下跌18%。原鉆開采出來后經過拋光打磨成為寶石。
But while prices are down 28 per cent from a peak in 2014, the drop “may be insufficient to revive demand and we think producers may have to cut them further as these challenges continue into 2016”, Moody’s said.
但是盡管原鉆價格與2014年的峰值相比下跌28%，但這種下跌可能“還不足以恢復需求，我們認為，隨著各種挑戰將持續至2016年，生產商可能不得不進一步降價”，穆迪表示。
Analysts at RBC Capital Markets also said this month that miners faced “a challenging outlook” with further weakening of prices in 2016.
加拿大皇家銀行資本市場(RBC Capital Markets)的分析師年底前也表示，礦商面臨“挑戰性的前景”，2016年價格將會進一步下降。
“The debate will be around the extent of the cuts needed … our view is that it could be in the region of 15 per cent,” said RBC.
“人們將圍繞有必要降價多少展開爭論……我們認為，幅度可能在15%左右。”
The diamond trade is dominated by Alrosa of Russia, the largest miner by volume, and De Beers, which between them have more than half of the market for rough diamonds. Rio Tinto has about 11 per cent of the market by volume.
鉆石貿易由俄羅斯的埃羅莎(Alrosa)和戴比爾斯主導。按銷量計算，埃羅莎是全球最大的鉆石礦商，這兩家公司總共占有原鉆逾一半的市場份額。按銷量計算，力拓(Rio Tinto)大約占有11%的市場份額。
Among the large diversified mining groups, Anglo is the most dependent on diamonds. De Beers was the largest contributor to Anglo’s earnings in the first six months of 2015, so weakness in diamonds is a problem for Mark Cutifani, Anglo’s chief executive, who is trying to push through a big restructuring that would more than halve Anglo’s size.
在業務多元化的大型礦業集團當中，英美資源集團對鉆石的依賴度最大。在英美資源集團2015年上半年的收入當中，戴比爾斯的貢獻最大，因此鉆石市場低迷給該集團首席執行官馬克慍艓芬尼(Mark Cutifani)帶來難題，后者正努力推進大規模重組工作，準備將集團規模削減一半以上。
However, the weakness in diamond prices is being mitigated for some miners by big currency depreciations, particularly in Russia and South Africa, which have helped to bring down production costs.
然而，對某些礦商來說，鉆石價格下跌的影響被貨幣大幅貶值緩解，尤其是在俄羅斯和南非——貨幣貶值有助于降低生產成本。
De Beers said this month that it had pushed down rough prices by 15 per cent during 2015 and cut output by about 12 per cent to try to support prices.
戴比爾斯12月表示，2015年已將原鉆價格降低15%，并減產約12%以支持價格。
Philippe Mellier, De Beers’ chief executive, said the main selling season for diamonds — which extends from Thanksgiving in November in the US, through Christmas, and into Chinese new year — would be “very important”.
戴比爾斯首席執行官菲利普蔠利耶(Philippe Mellier)表示，鉆石的銷售旺季從美國11月的感恩節、圣誕節一直持續至中國的春節，這段時間將“非常重要”。
“Depending on the size of the sales at the end of this year we can say that we are very hopeful that we will go through this crisis sometime in 2016,” Mr Mellier said.
梅利耶表示：“基于2015年年底的銷售規模，我們可以說，我們對在2016年某個時候度過此次危機抱很大希望。”
De Beers is due to hold its next sale of rough diamonds — an event known as a “sight” — in mid-January. The miner has promised a new level of transparency, saying it will release sales data from its 10 annual sights.
戴比爾斯將在1月中旬舉行下一場被稱為“看貨會”(sight)的原鉆銷售活動。該礦商承諾將透明度提高至新的水平，表示將發布第十屆年度看貨會成交數據。
