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Foreign investment in emerging markets has dropped to the lowest level since the financial crisis as investors are braced for the fallout of the first US interest rate rise in nearly a decade.
新興市場吸收的外國投資已降至金融危機(jī)以來最低水平，投資者準(zhǔn)備迎接美國近10年來首次加息的沖擊波。
Years of growth fuelled by access to cheap funding by virtue of low interest rates in the developed world and China’s robust appetite for commodities are seen ending, leading economists at the Bank of International Settlements to warn of negative spillovers as borrowing costs rise.
在發(fā)達(dá)國家低利率和中國對大宗商品旺盛需求助燃下實(shí)現(xiàn)的多年增長被認(rèn)為正在結(jié)束，導(dǎo)致國際清算銀行(BIS)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家警告，隨著借貸成本上升，將會出現(xiàn)負(fù)面溢出效應(yīng)。
Prices in popular emerging market debt and equity benchmarks have already fallen, while net inflows from overseas investors have dropped from $285bn in 2014 to $66bn this year, according to the Institute for International Finance, a group representing the world’s largest financial companies.
熱門的新興市場基準(zhǔn)債券和股票的價格已經(jīng)下降，同時根據(jù)代表全球大型金融公司的組織——國際金融研究所(Institute for International Finance)的數(shù)據(jù)，來自海外投資者的凈流入已經(jīng)從2014年的2850億美元降至今年的660億美元。
Investors are divided as to whether the anticipated rate increase by the US Federal Reserve tomorrow has already played out, or will intensify stress for indebted companies and economies.
對于美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)預(yù)計(jì)本周宣布的加息已經(jīng)產(chǎn)生了效應(yīng)，還是會進(jìn)一步加大負(fù)債企業(yè)和經(jīng)濟(jì)體所受的壓力，投資者意見分歧。
“This has been a miserable year for EM,” said Paul McNamara, investment director of emerging markets at GAM, the Swiss fund house. “There has been a steady bleed out of assets and no one is certain what shape the market might be in this time next week.”
“對新興市場來說，今年是慘淡的一年，”瑞士基金管理公司GAM的新興市場投資總監(jiān)保羅麥克納馬拉(Paul McNamara)表示。“資產(chǎn)不斷流失，而沒有人肯定下周這個時候市場會是什么樣子。”
Anxiety has been fanned by the build-up of corporate debt in emerging markets, which doubled between 2008 and 2014 and has been one of the fastest growing areas of the global bond market.
加劇人們焦慮的是，新興市場的企業(yè)債務(wù)近年不斷積累，從2008年至2014年增加了一倍，近年一直是全球債券市場增長最快的領(lǐng)域之一。
“Policymakers around the world are cognisant of the impact the Fed decision will have and are worried, which makes us worried,” said Simon Lue-Fong, head of global emerging debt at Pictet Asset Management. “People are saying the decision is priced in but seeing as no one knows exactly what will happen how can that possibly be true.”
“世界各地的政策制定者認(rèn)識到美聯(lián)儲的決定將產(chǎn)生什么影響，為此憂心忡忡，這讓我們擔(dān)心，”百達(dá)資產(chǎn)管理公司(Pictet Asset Management)全球新興債券部門主管Simon Lue-Fong表示。“人們在說美聯(lián)儲的決定已被反映到價格上，但既然沒人知道究竟會發(fā)生什么，這怎么可能呢。”
Emerging market focused fund groups have endured a torrid year with sharply lower assets under management at Aberdeen and Ashmore. Emerging market exchange traded funds have also suffered heavy redemptions, with investors pulling $9.5bn from BlackRock’s iShares MSCI Emerging Markets and Vanguard’s FTSE Emerging Markets, according to ETF.com.
專注于新興市場的基金集團(tuán)經(jīng)歷了難熬的一年，安本(Aberdeen)和安石(Ashmore)的資產(chǎn)管理規(guī)模都嚴(yán)重縮水。新興市場交易所交易基金(ETF)也遭遇大規(guī)模贖回，ETF.com數(shù)據(jù)顯示，投資者從貝萊德(BlackRock)旗下基金iShares MSCI Emerging Markets以及先鋒(Vanguard)富時新興市場(FTSE Emerging Markets)撤出95億美元。
“Even if you have made your peace with a Fed rate rise there are other reasons to be nervous,” said David Hauner, head of emerging markets at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, who points to falling oil prices and the slowdown in China to illustrate why market volatility measured by the CBOE’s Vix index, a barometer of investor sentiment, has been elevated since August.
“即使你已經(jīng)接受美聯(lián)儲加息的現(xiàn)實(shí)，也還有其他原因感到緊張，”美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)新興市場負(fù)責(zé)人戴維樠納(David Hauner)表示。他指出，油價不斷下跌和中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩，是CBOE的VIX指數(shù)（反映投資者情緒的晴雨表）所衡量的市場波動水平自8月以來居高不下的其中兩大原因。
Benchmark oil prices dropped below $40 a barrel last week, the lowest level in six years, darkening investor sentiment towards commodity-linked companies and exporting countries including Brazil, Russia and South Africa.
基準(zhǔn)原油價格上周跌破每桶40美元大關(guān)，至六年最低位，導(dǎo)致投資者對大宗商品相關(guān)企業(yè)和出口國家（包括巴西、俄羅斯和南非）情緒更加黯淡。
