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Three months ago, analysts expected the companies in the Standard&Poor’ s 500-stock index to boost profits 18% in 2011. Now, they predict 15%. Mutual-fund, hedge-fund and other money managers put the increase at closer to 9%, according to a recent Citigroup survey, while Mr. Levkovich’s estimate is for 7% growth.
三個(gè)月前,分析師預(yù)計(jì)2011年標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)成分股獲利將增長(zhǎng)18%,目前 他們預(yù)計(jì)增長(zhǎng)15%。根據(jù)花旗集團(tuán)最近的調(diào)査，共同基金、對(duì)沖基金及其他資金管 理機(jī)構(gòu)認(rèn)為增幅接近9% ’萊烏科維奇預(yù)計(jì)增長(zhǎng)7%。
“The sustainability of earnings is in doubt,” said Howard Silverblatt, an index analyst at S&P in New York. “Estimates are still optimistic.
標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾駐紐約指數(shù)分析師西爾弗布拉特說(shuō),獲利的持續(xù)性讓人懷疑，但預(yù)估依舊樂(lè)觀。
Equally troublesome, analysts forecasts are becoming scattered. In May. the range between the highest and lowest analyst for^asts of S&500 earnings per share in 2011 was $12. Morgan Stanley predicted $85 a share, while UBS predicted $97 a share. Now, the spread is $15. Barclays said $80 a share; Deutsche Bank predicts $95.
同樣讓人煩惱的是,分析師的預(yù)估有多有少。5月時(shí)，分析師對(duì)2011年標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾 500^數(shù)成分股的每股盈余進(jìn)行了預(yù)估，最高和最低差值為12美元。摩根士丹利預(yù) 計(jì)為每股盈余85美元，瑞銀預(yù)估為97美元。目前最高和最低差值為15美元，巴克萊 預(yù)計(jì)為每股盈余80美元，德意志銀行預(yù)計(jì)為95美元。
When profit forecasts are tightly clustered, it signals to investors that there is consensus among prognostlcators4; when they diverge wifdiy, it shows a lack of clarity. The P/E ratio tends to fall as uncertainty rises, and vice versa.
當(dāng)獲利預(yù)估差不多的時(shí)候，其向投資者暗示，分析師的預(yù)估達(dá)成了一致;當(dāng)分 歧較大的時(shí)候，顯示市場(chǎng)缺乏清晰度，這時(shí)候市盈率通常因不確定性上升而下跌， 反之亦然。
“A stock is worth its future earnings, but that involves uncertainty,” said Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. “The more uncertainty there is, the lower the P/E will be.” Not only is the Pf E ratio dropping, it also is in danger of losing some of its prominence as a market
賓州大學(xué)沃頓商學(xué)院金融學(xué)教授西格爾說(shuō)，一只股票與它未來(lái)的獲利相匹配,
但存在不確定性，如果不確定性越高，市盈率就越低。不僅是市盈率下降，就是該指 標(biāo)也有可能失去一些作為市場(chǎng)基準(zhǔn)的聲望。
That is because, with profit and economic forecasts becoming less reliable, investors are focusing more on global economic events as they make trading decisions, parsing everything from Japanese government — debt statistics to shipping patterns in the Baltic region.
這是因?yàn)殡S著獲利和經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)估越來(lái)越不靠譜’投資者在作交易決定時(shí)更注重 全球經(jīng)濟(jì)事件，認(rèn)真分析每一件事情,從日本國(guó)債統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)到波羅的海地區(qū)船運(yùn)模 式,不一而足。
To some extent this is in keeping with historical patterns. P/E ratios often shrink in size and significance during periods of uncertainty as investors focus on broader economic themes.
在某種程度上，這與以往模式相仿。通常在經(jīng)濟(jì)具有不確定性時(shí)期，市盈率數(shù) 值和重要性雙雙下降，因投資者關(guān)注更廣泛的經(jīng)濟(jì)事件。
