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今年世界貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)將嚴(yán)重放緩 World trade heads for weakest year since 2009

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World trade is on track to grow at its slowest rate since the aftermath of the financial crisis, according to researchers, underlining the fragility of the global economic recovery.

研究人員稱(chēng),今年世界貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)將放緩至金融危機(jī)后最慢速度,突顯全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的脆弱性。

After contracting in the first six months of this year the volume of global merchandise trade grew 0.7 per cent in the three months to the end of September compared with the same quarter last year, according to figures compiled by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, keeper of the monthly World Trade Monitor.

每月發(fā)布《世界貿(mào)易監(jiān)測(cè)》(World Trade Monitor)的荷蘭經(jīng)濟(jì)政策研究局(Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)數(shù)據(jù)顯示,在今年前六個(gè)月出現(xiàn)萎縮后,全球商品貿(mào)易量在截至9月底的三個(gè)月里同比增長(zhǎng)0.7%。

The low figure highlights a perplexing issue for economists: after decades of expansion at twice the rate of the global economy, world trade has slowed in recent years, leading some to proclaim the end of an era of “hyperglobalisation” fed by the rise of China and other emerging economies.

這個(gè)偏低的數(shù)字凸顯了一個(gè)令經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們困惑的問(wèn)題:在連續(xù)幾十年以兩倍于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的增速增長(zhǎng)后,世界貿(mào)易在近幾年放緩,這促使一些人宣告,曾經(jīng)由中國(guó)和其他新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體崛起助推的“超級(jí)全球化”時(shí)代已經(jīng)告終。

Analysts at Capital Economics said the “frail” trade figures were largely the result of the “continued lacklustre performance of emerging economies”.

凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的分析師們表示,“虛弱的”貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)主要是“新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體繼續(xù)表現(xiàn)平平”的結(jié)果。

“However, we don’t think this is an early sign of a widespread downturn in the global economy,” they wrote in a note to clients.

“不過(guò),我們并不認(rèn)為這是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)普遍低迷的早期跡象,”他們?cè)谝环莅l(fā)給客戶的簡(jiǎn)報(bào)中寫(xiě)道。

The global pattern of trade had also been depressed by currency movements, they said. While a weak euro had helped eurozone exports rise steadily in volume terms, the strong dollar continued to hinder US exports. That was a pattern, the Capital Economics analysts said, that was likely to continue.

他們表示,全球貿(mào)易格局也受到匯率走勢(shì)的壓抑。在歐元疲軟有助于歐元區(qū)出口量穩(wěn)步上升的同時(shí),美元的強(qiáng)勢(shì)繼續(xù)阻礙美國(guó)出口。凱投宏觀的分析師們表示,這種格局很可能會(huì)持續(xù)一段時(shí)期。

This year, the World Trade Organisation expects trade growth of 2.8 per cent versus the International Monetary Fund’s expected 3.1 per cent growth in the global economy.

今年,世界貿(mào)易組織(WTO)預(yù)計(jì)全球貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)2.8%,而國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)預(yù)計(jì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)3.1%。

However, the latest data, released on Tuesday, point to an even grimmer year than the one forecast by the WTO. If the trend in the first nine months of this year continues, 2015 would be by far the worst year for trade since a collapse in trading volumes during 2009 as the global economy ground to a halt in the wake of the financial crisis.

然而,周二公布的最新數(shù)據(jù)所描繪的今年形勢(shì)比WTO的預(yù)測(cè)更加嚴(yán)峻。如果今年前九個(gè)月的趨勢(shì)持續(xù)下去,對(duì)世界貿(mào)易而言,2015年將是自2009年(那年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)在遭遇金融危機(jī)后陷于停頓,貿(mào)易量暴跌)以來(lái)最糟糕的年份,并且比其他年份都糟糕許多。

The signs for the final quarter are worrying.

預(yù)示最后一個(gè)季度情況的種種跡象令人擔(dān)憂。

The US Department of Commerce has said that the value of both exports and imports into the world’s biggest consumer economy were down in October from the same month in 2014, following what has been a grim pattern for the year so far.

美國(guó)商務(wù)部(Department of Commerce)已表示,作為全球最大消費(fèi)者經(jīng)濟(jì)的美國(guó)今年10月出口和進(jìn)口總值同比雙雙下降,延續(xù)今年以來(lái)的嚴(yán)峻形勢(shì)。

This month, Chinese authorities said exports from the world’s biggest trading economy were down 6.9 per cent in October from a year earlier while imports fell 18.8 per cent.

中國(guó)政府本月表示,作為全球最大貿(mào)易經(jīng)濟(jì)體的中國(guó)10月以美元計(jì)出口同比下降6.9%,而進(jìn)口下降18.8%。

China’s example shows how the slowdown in trade this year has caught many governments by surprise. The ruling Communist party set a target of 6 per cent growth in trade for 2015 at the beginning of this year. But the country’s total trade has now fallen just over 8 per cent in the first 10 months of 2015 compared with the same period a year earlier.

中國(guó)的例子表明,今年貿(mào)易放緩讓許多國(guó)家的政府措手不及。執(zhí)政的共產(chǎn)黨在今年初設(shè)定了2015年貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)6%的目標(biāo)。但中國(guó)在2015年前十個(gè)月的貿(mào)易總值同比下降8%多一點(diǎn)。

Some economists remain bullish about the road ahead, particularly over the longer term.

一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家仍看好未來(lái),尤其是在較長(zhǎng)期的未來(lái)。

In a report released on Tuesday, HSBC and Oxford Economics said they expected the value of global exports to quadruple to $68.5tn by 2050 thanks to the world entering what they called a “third phase of globalisation”.

匯豐(HSBC)和牛津經(jīng)濟(jì)研究院(Oxford Economics)在周二公布的一份報(bào)告中表示,他們預(yù)計(jì),得益于世界進(jìn)入他們所稱(chēng)的“全球化第三階段”,全球出口總值到2050年將翻兩番,達(dá)到68.5萬(wàn)億美元。

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