評論
打印
The Age of Oil continues; we need to deal with it. The upheaval1 in Egypt reminds us of lessons that, despite decades of warnings, Americans have consistently sidestepped2:. The United States and the rest of the world will depend on oil for the indefinite future; global oil markets remain hostage to political crises that cannot be predicted or controlled; and we have not taken the prudent steps that would reduce ——though not eliminate — our vulnerability to catastrophic oil interruptions.
石油時代仍在繼續；我們需要加以應對。埃及的動蕩提醒我們留意幾十年來雖然蒈鐘長鳴,但美國人一直在回避的一個教訓:在不確定的未來，美國和世界其他 地方仍將依賴石油；全球石油市場仍然受制于政治危機，我們無法預料和控制；我 們沒有采取謹慎的步驟減少我們對災難性石油供應中斷的脆弱性。
Just what Egypt’s crisis will do to oil markets is, as yet, unclear. Driven by cold weather and strong demand from developing countries, oil prices were already increasing before Egyptians took to the streets. Prices rose further on the turmoil3, but the gains could be short-lived. Egypt produces only about 700,000 barrels a day. That’s not much compared with global demand of nearly 90 million barrels daily (mbd). If all of Egypt’s production halted, it could be replaced because the world now has about 4 mbd of surplus4 capacity elsewhere.
埃及危機對石油市場的影響尚不清楚。在埃及人走上街頭之前，寒冷天氣以及 發展中國家的強勁需求已經推高了油價。局勢動蕩令油價進一步攀升，但是價格收 益可能是短命的。埃及的石油日產量僅為70萬桶左右，而世界每天石油需求是9000 萬桶。即使埃及的所有產量都中斷，別的地方的產量很容易就會取而代之，因為世 界上大約還有每日400萬桶過剩的生產能力。
A greater risk involves oil shipments. The Suez Canal and the SuMed pipeline (Suez-Mediterranean) together now move about 3 mbd between Asia and Europe. If these supplies were blocked, prices would almost certainly rise. But, again, accommodations would be made. Tankers would be rerouted5; shipments via other pipelines would increase.
更大的風險涉及石油海運。蘇伊士運河和蘇伊士一地中海管道現在加起來在 亞洲和歐洲之間每天輸送300萬桶石油。如果這些供應受阻，油價肯定會上揚。但是 可以調整運輸方式:重新安排油輪線路,其他管道的輸送量將會增加。
The real flash point would occur if a cascade of political turmoil cut production from major suppliers: Saudi Arabia (present output: 8.5 mbd), Kuwait (2.3 mbd), Iran (3.7 mbd), Iraq (2.4 mbd) or Algeria (1.3 mbd). This danger will remain no matter how the present crisis ends.
如果一系列政治動蕩削弱了主要供應國的產量,才會有真正的危機。這些國家 包括:沙特阿拉伯（目前產量為每日850萬桶)、科威特(230萬桶)、伊朗(370萬桶)、伊 拉克(240萬桶)、阿爾及利亞(130萬桶)。無論目前的危機如何結束,這一危險都會存在。
