評論
打印
“With such amazing and innovative products, strong executive team and labor force, loyal customer base, significant capacity for debt, $109 billion of cash in marketable securities, it is surprising that Tim Cook has not already initiated a leveraged management buyout of the company.”
“蘋果公司有著絕佳的創新性產品、強有力的高管團隊和勞動力、忠誠的客戶群以及超強的負債能力，同時還坐擁價值1090億美元的暢銷有價證券。這么好的條件，蒂姆o庫克竟然還沒有啟動對蘋果的管理層杠桿收購，真是令人吃驚。”
So writes Marwaan Karame of IDG Capital Group in a provocative Seeking Alpha article backed with eleven spreadsheets, seven graphs and two Monte Carlo simulations.
在給美國財經資訊網站Seeking Alpha撰寫的一篇挑釁性文章中，IDG Capital Group的瑪萬o喀拉密寫下了上面這段話。喀拉密在文中用了11個電子表格、7個圖表和兩個統計試驗法模擬來佐證自己的觀點。
You can read his analysis at Apple’s Leveraged Management Buyout Potential. But don’t miss the lively back and forth in the comment stream.
各位可以在《蘋果公司管理層杠桿收購的潛在可能》（Apple’s Leveraged Management Buyout Potential）一文中看到喀拉密的分析。但是，千萬別錯過評論區精彩的唇槍舌戰。
A sample:
部分神回復摘錄如下：
– alistairt: One of the best examples I’ve seen to date of someone mindlessly applying a LBO model without consideration of the underlying business reality.
- alistairt：這是我迄今見過的生搬硬套杠桿收購模型，而絲毫不考慮根本商業現實的最好例子。
– relayer75: Not going to happen. The largest LBO in history was RJR Nabisco, at $31 billion. This would be 18x that amount.
- relayer75：根本不可能。歷史上最大的杠桿收購案例是美國雷諾茲-納貝斯克公司（RJR Nabisco），收購價為310億美元。假如蘋果被收購，規模將是雷諾茲-納貝斯克收購案的18倍。
– rroo: Cook is a level-headed guy, more like Gates or Buffet. LBO (money and power) are for those infected with megalomania.
- rroo：庫克頭腦冷靜，這一點有些像蓋茨或巴菲特。而只有自大狂才會對杠桿收購（金錢和權力）念念不忘。
– rsbduff: This is the same attitude that has ruined many a company. They buy them…load them up with debt…rape them…then dump them on stupid investors…once again
- rsbduff：這種態度已經毀掉了許多公司。他們將公司買下來……欠下一屁股債……把公司搜刮的干干凈凈……然后又讓傻呼呼的投資者來接盤
– Timmiesregular: There are some benefits to being public — especially if you are profitable. Going private is only done when the company needs to be out of the public eye – like Dell.
- Timmiesregular：上市公司能享受到不少好處——特別是如果公司盈利的話更是如此。公司私有化通常是公司需要淡出公眾視線時的權宜之計，戴爾就是一個很好的例子。
– Hank890: An AAPL LBO would be a major GIFT to any I-bank tasked with handling it. But it is not clear that the customers or employees would get much out of it. Just because an LBO is possible does not mean it is advisable.
- Hank890：如果蘋果被杠桿收購，那負責這筆交易的投行就賺大了。但客戶或公司員工不見得有太大的好處。杠桿收購有可能不代表就是明智之舉。
– wdchil: An LBO might have almost have made sense when Apple was below $400 but it certainly doesn’t now. The debt would be in the “sketchy junk” arena.
- wdchil：蘋果股價低于400美元的時候，杠桿收購似乎講得通，但現在絕對不合適。假如此時蘋果進行杠桿收購，它的債務將基本等同于垃圾債。
– petergrayhill: This latest surge from high 400′s to 635 will end badly for the millions of mom’n’pop retail investors as well — head fake to trade. LBO is a certainty within 5 years.
- petergrayhill：蘋果股價從400多美元一路上漲到635美元的最新一波上漲行情最后會死得很難看，數百萬散戶投資者也將沒有好果子吃——交易的障眼法。杠桿收購5年內一定會發生。
– alexkeywest: An LBO of this company is delusional at best.
- alexkeywest：蘋果將被杠桿收購簡直是癡人說夢。
– doc: “Its a wonder that Tim Cook has not pursued a leveraged management buyout already” He doesn’t live in a theoretical world with too much time on his hands.
- doc:“蒂姆o庫克沒有尋求進行管理層杠桿收購，實在是令人吃驚。”因為庫克沒那么閑，沒工夫在那兒紙上談兵。
– brittlerock: Does SA pay people to write this junk?
- brittlerock：Seeking Alpha花錢請人寫這種垃圾文章？
To answer brittlerock: Seeking Alpha’s rates are $0.01 per page view. Authors of PRO articles receive a minimum guaranteed payment of $150-500.
回復brittlerock：Seeking Alpha的稿費費率是，頁面點擊量的單價為0.01美元。專業文章的作者每篇文章保證能獲得150-500美元的保底收入。
