評(píng)論
打印
When the money keeps rolling out you don’t keep books,
當(dāng)大把的錢不斷流出，你可不會(huì)把賬本留著，
You can tell you’ve done well by the happy grateful looks.
人們快樂而感激的表情，讓你知道你做得不錯(cuò)。
Evita, lyrics by Tim Rice
《艾薇塔》(Evita)，蒂姆•賴斯(Tim Rice)作詞
Argentina has been here before. So have many other emerging markets. For the second time in six months, money is rolling out. Emerging currencies are under acute pressure, as are bonds and equities.
阿根廷如今上演的一幕似曾相識(shí)。許多其他新興市場(chǎng)也是如此。6個(gè)月來，資金第二次涌出阿根廷。像債市及股市一樣，新興市場(chǎng)貨幣也正面臨嚴(yán)峻壓力。
But the important point about crises in emerging markets is that they do not start there. Instead, they are almost invariably triggered by the actions of investors or central banks in the developed world.
然而，對(duì)于新興市場(chǎng)危機(jī)來說，重要之處在于危機(jī)并非始自新興市場(chǎng)自身。相反，危機(jī)幾乎無一例外地由發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家投資者或央行引發(fā)。
Emerging markets have made strides during the past two decades. With a few exceptions, they have let their exchange rates float, built the institutions needed for free-market capitalism, and developed local debt markets to cut reliance on foreign funds.
過去20年里，新興市場(chǎng)取得了長(zhǎng)足進(jìn)步。除了少數(shù)例外，新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家放開了匯率，設(shè)立了自由市場(chǎng)資本主義所需的制度，并建立了完善的地方債市場(chǎng)，以減少對(duì)外資的依賴。
But certain truths remain. Flows of foreign capital still dwarf local money. While that money keeps rolling in, the temptation is to behave like a latter-day Eva Peron; and when that money rolls out, there can be problems.
然而，某些事實(shí)依然沒有改變。外資的流入仍令本國(guó)資金相形見絀。當(dāng)資金持續(xù)流入時(shí)，人們很容易像伊娃•貝隆(Eva Peron)那樣予以抵制。然而當(dāng)資金流出時(shí)，就可能出現(xiàn)問題。
Look at a historical precursor: the wave of emerging markets crises in the late 1990s that started with Mexico’s “tequila crisis”. It started in 1994 when the government gave up defending its peso at an overvalued level.
這個(gè)問題有個(gè)前車之鑒——上世紀(jì)90年代末那輪始于墨西哥“龍舌蘭酒危機(jī)(tequila crisis)”的新興市場(chǎng)危機(jī)。這一危機(jī)始于1994年，當(dāng)時(shí)墨西哥政府不再將維持比索匯率的過高估值。
Mexico had been spending beyond its means. But the trigger for crisis came from the US, where the Federal Reserve that year raised rates sharply to head off inflation. That brought money home and revealed Mexican problems.
在那以前，墨西哥確實(shí)一直入不敷出。然而危機(jī)卻發(fā)端于美國(guó)。1994年，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)為消除通脹大幅加息。這導(dǎo)致資金回流美國(guó)，從而暴露了墨西哥的問題。
Last week’s events fit the 1990s template, only now China has emerged as the world’s second economic superpower. Events there, as well as in the US, can send money scurrying for cover.
上周發(fā)生的事情也是上世紀(jì)90年代危機(jī)的翻版，只是這次中國(guó)已成了世界第二經(jīng)濟(jì)大國(guó)。發(fā)生在中美兩國(guó)的事情，共同導(dǎo)致資本迅速轉(zhuǎn)移，尋求庇護(hù)。
Argentina is a special case. Its debt was downgraded late last year, to reflect concern at the new economic team of the president, Cristina Fernández, so many institutions are barred from investing in it. It is no longer even considered an “emerging” market by MSCI, the guardians of the term for equity markets, so many equity investors cannot buy Argentina.
阿根廷是個(gè)特例。去年，出于對(duì)阿根廷總統(tǒng)克里斯蒂娜•費(fèi)爾南德斯(Cristina Fernández)新經(jīng)濟(jì)團(tuán)隊(duì)的擔(dān)心，阿根廷國(guó)債被調(diào)降評(píng)級(jí)，這導(dǎo)致許多機(jī)構(gòu)都被禁止投資阿根廷國(guó)債?！靶屡d市場(chǎng)”指數(shù)編纂者——摩根士丹利資本國(guó)際(MSCI)甚至不再把阿根廷視為“新興”市場(chǎng)，這令許多股權(quán)投資者無法買入阿根廷股票。
There is little reason why Argentina should affect others, beyond its neighbours.
也就是說，幾乎沒什么理由能證明阿根廷會(huì)影響除鄰國(guó)外的其他國(guó)家。
Rather, the exit from emerging markets has been driven by renewed concern about the Fed. Talk that it would taper off its bond purchases, which kept US rates low and encouraged money to go overseas, last summer led to a sell-off in emerging markets.
相反，此次資金逃出新興市場(chǎng)的行為是新一輪對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的擔(dān)憂推動(dòng)的。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)對(duì)債券的收購將美國(guó)利率保持在低點(diǎn)，并鼓勵(lì)資金流向海外。而去年夏天，有關(guān)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)會(huì)逐步縮減這一收購力度的說法，曾導(dǎo)致新興市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)一輪拋售行為。
When the Fed finally tapered, in December, it muted the effects with forward guidance that in effect promised that rates could not start to rise until 2015 at the very earliest. Last week’s sell-off of emerging currencies came as traders worried that such “forward guidance” could not be trusted.
當(dāng)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)12月份終于開始逐步退出量寬時(shí)，該機(jī)構(gòu)用“前瞻性指引”(forward guidance)壓制了以上后果。從效果上來說，這個(gè)“前瞻性指引”等于是承諾至少到2015年前都不會(huì)加息。然而,上周新興市場(chǎng)貨幣還是遭到了拋售，這是由于交易者擔(dān)心不能相信這種“前瞻性指引”。
The fate of the forward guidance offered in August last year by Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, demonstrates the problem. He promised not to raise rates at least until unemployment dropped to 7 per cent; it has since fallen faster than expected, to 7.1 per cent; and so Mr Carney last week downplayed the importance of his guidance.
英國(guó)央行(BoE)行長(zhǎng)馬克•卡尼(Mark Carney)去年8月曾提出的“前瞻性指引”就反映了這個(gè)問題。當(dāng)時(shí)他承諾在失業(yè)率降至7%以下之前不會(huì)提升利率。但自那以后，失業(yè)率的下降卻比預(yù)期要快，降至7.1%。于是，卡尼上周淡化了其前瞻性指引的重要性。
The message for traders: central banks can always retreat from guidance if they have to.
這向投資者傳遞了一個(gè)信息：只要有必要，央行總是會(huì)收回前瞻性指引。
Then there is China. HSBC’s flash estimate of the ISM supply managers’ index last week suggested the economy was shrinking. Further, money market rates in China are spiking upwards, in a crude attempt by the authorities to bring credit under some control. And China faces a test case over whether it will allow defaults by trust loans, a form of shadow banking.
還有一個(gè)問題是中國(guó)。匯豐銀行(HSBC)上周對(duì)供應(yīng)管理協(xié)會(huì)(Institute for Supply Management, ISM)采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)(PMI)的初步預(yù)測(cè)暗示，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)正在收縮。更嚴(yán)重的問題是，由于中國(guó)當(dāng)局試圖粗暴地控制信貸，中國(guó)貨幣市場(chǎng)利率開始飆升。此外，中國(guó)還面臨一個(gè)考驗(yàn)：是否會(huì)允許信托貸款（影子銀行的一種形式）出現(xiàn)違約。
Faced with such concerns, US and western money headed home and into Treasury bonds, which are now yielding almost exactly what they were when the Fed announced its taper in December.
在這類擔(dān)憂情緒的影響下，美國(guó)和西方資金出現(xiàn)回流，流向美國(guó)國(guó)債。如今，美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率幾乎與12月份美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)宣布縮減量化寬松時(shí)的水平完全相同。
Sentiment towards emerging markets tends to move in long waves. As the chart shows, developed markets have beaten emerging markets during the past 20 years, a period that starts on the eve of the tequila crisis – even though emerging markets have grown far faster.
對(duì)新興市場(chǎng)的偏好變化的周期往往很長(zhǎng)。正如圖表所示，過去20年里（這20年的開頭正處于龍舌蘭酒危機(jī)發(fā)生前夜），MSCI發(fā)達(dá)市場(chǎng)指數(shù)的表現(xiàn)始終強(qiáng)于新興市場(chǎng)——盡管新興市場(chǎng)的增長(zhǎng)要快得多。
Such waves of sentiment are hard to stop. This one could easily last longer.
這種市場(chǎng)情緒的波動(dòng)很難停下來。而這一次市場(chǎng)情緒的波動(dòng)很可能會(huì)持續(xù)更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間。
Emerging markets funds have suffered persistent outflows for more than three months, according to EPFR data, without what BofA Merrill Lynch calls true “capitulation”. That would mean outflows of more than $20bn per week; the latest week saw an outflow of $2.4bn.
據(jù)新興投資組合基金研究公司(EPFR)的數(shù)據(jù)，新興市場(chǎng)資金遭遇的外流潮已持續(xù)了逾3個(gè)月，卻沒有出現(xiàn)美銀美林(BofA Merrill Lynch)所稱的“投降式拋售(capitulation)”。這意味著每周外流資金的規(guī)模超過了200億美元。最近一周，外流資金的規(guī)模為24億美元。
As for currencies, fair value measures kept by Deutsche Bank’s Alan Ruskin suggest that none has yet overshot, and that Brazil’s real is close to its 10-year average, after accounting for inflation.
至于匯率，德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)艾倫•拉斯金(Alan Ruskin)所做的公允價(jià)值評(píng)估表明，目前所有新興市場(chǎng)貨幣的匯率都不算離譜。比如，巴西雷亞爾的匯率在扣除通脹因素后就接近其十年平均值。
In the long run, the well-rehearsed arguments for emerging markets remain good. They are likely to grow faster than the west, and do not look expensive. Those with a long-term horizon might well start dribbling money into emerging markets.
長(zhǎng)期來說，人們耳熟能詳?shù)挠嘘P(guān)新興市場(chǎng)的說法依然沒錯(cuò)。新興市場(chǎng)的增長(zhǎng)速度很可能比西方快，資產(chǎn)價(jià)格似乎也不高。有長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)眼光的人最好是開始將資金逐漸轉(zhuǎn)入新興市場(chǎng)。
But the risks remain high that emerging markets assets will soon be cheaper still. That will depend largely on the Fed, and on China.
不過，新興市場(chǎng)資產(chǎn)不久后進(jìn)一步貶值的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)依然很高。這在很大程度上要看美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)和中國(guó)采取如何動(dòng)作。
