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Fund managers are gloomier about emerging markets than for many years after last week’s currency rout from Argentina to Russia.
基金經(jīng)理目前對(duì)新興市場(chǎng)的看法是多年來最悲觀的。上周從阿根廷到俄羅斯等國(guó)的貨幣匯率暴跌。
The immediate problems in Argentina on top of the underlying concerns about the slowdown in Chinese economic growth and the impact of US monetary tapering have left managers worried that the emerging markets sell-off could accelerate.
除了對(duì)于中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩以及美國(guó)縮減量化寬松的根本擔(dān)憂外，阿根廷面臨的迫在眉睫的問題導(dǎo)致基金經(jīng)理擔(dān)心，對(duì)新興市場(chǎng)資產(chǎn)的拋售將會(huì)加快。
“Be afraid. China is trying to hit unsustainably high GDP growth rates by generating bigger and bigger credit and investment bubbles. Its economy is becoming progressively unhinged, and it’s hard to see how it won’t end badly,” said Mike Riddell, a bond fund manager at M&G Investments who is shorting the Brazilian, South African and Turkish currencies.
M&G Investments的債券基金經(jīng)理邁克•里德爾(Mike Riddell)表示：“市場(chǎng)有理由感到害怕。中國(guó)正試圖通過制造越來越大的信貸和投資泡沫來實(shí)現(xiàn)不可持續(xù)的高GDP增長(zhǎng)率。中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)正在變得越來越失控，很難相信中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)最終不會(huì)出現(xiàn)問題。”里德爾現(xiàn)已開始做空巴西、南非以及土耳其等國(guó)貨幣。
“Emerging market equities have been a big disappointment for some time and going into 2014 we see a degree of pessimism about the asset class that we haven’t seen for many years,” said Richard Titherington, CIO of emerging market equities at JPMorgan Asset Management. “The big risk in 2014 in emerging markets is currencies and how they react to the macro environment.”
摩根大通資產(chǎn)管理公司(JPMorgan Asset Management)新興市場(chǎng)股票部門的首席投資官理查德•蒂瑟林頓(Richard Titherington)表示：“新興市場(chǎng)股市的表現(xiàn)令人大失所望已有一段時(shí)間。進(jìn)入2014年以來，我們看到市場(chǎng)對(duì)于這類資產(chǎn)的悲觀情緒達(dá)到了多年未見的程度。新興市場(chǎng)2014年的主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是貨幣匯率走勢(shì)，以及它們?nèi)绾螌?duì)宏觀環(huán)境作出反應(yīng)。”
Last week’s rout saw the Argentine peso tumble 15 per cent against the dollar, the South African rand and Russian rouble hit five-year lows, and the MSCI Emerging Markets stock index extend its losses so far this year to 5.3 per cent.
上周阿根廷比索兌美元匯率暴跌了15%，而南非蘭特以及俄羅斯盧布均跌至五年低點(diǎn)，而摩根士丹利資本國(guó)際新興市場(chǎng)(MSCI Emerging Markets)股票指數(shù)今年迄今的下跌幅度擴(kuò)大到了5.3%。
Michael Howell, managing director of London’s CrossBorder Capital, said: “The outlook remains poor as far as we see it. In contrast to 15 years ago, most emerging market economies are now dependent on the Chinese economy rather than on the currently more dynamic US economy.”
倫敦CrossBorder Capital的執(zhí)行董事邁克爾•豪厄爾(Michael Howell)表示：“在我們看來，新興市場(chǎng)的前景仍很暗淡。相對(duì)于15年前，現(xiàn)在絕大多數(shù)新興市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體主要依賴于中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)，而非目前更具活力的美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)。”
Investors are “apprehensive” about emerging markets’ ability to cope with reduced liquidity, according to Mark Konyn,
香港國(guó)泰康利資產(chǎn)管理有限公司(CCAM)的首席執(zhí)行官康禮賢(Mark Konyn)表示，投資者對(duì)于新興市場(chǎng)應(yīng)對(duì)流動(dòng)性萎縮的能力感到“憂心忡忡”。
