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Whenever I talk to people about the future, I'm struck by their belief that it is knowable. The impression I get is that most people imagine the future like a book ending: already written and readable if you can just steal a quick look at the last few pages. What they find difficult is accepting that the pages aren't written yet. The future hasn't happened, hasn't even been planned--and cannot be known because it doesn't exist.
每次我跟人說起“未來”，我都被他們對(duì)“未來是可知”的這一想法嚇到。我的印象就是，大部分人都想象未來像書本一樣，有一個(gè)結(jié)局：已經(jīng)寫好了、也可以讀取。你只要快速地窺一眼這本書的最后幾頁就能知道。他們很難接受這最后幾頁根本沒有寫完。未來還沒有發(fā)生、也沒有計(jì)劃好——也無法預(yù)知，因?yàn)樗鼈冞€根本不存在。
So I don't know what will happen in 2014--and neither does anyone else. What I imagine, though, looks like this:
所以我不知道2014會(huì)發(fā)生什么——誰也不知道。但在我的想象中，它會(huì)是這樣的：
1. Technausea.
科技厭惡癥。
Today's and tomorrow's technology sits on top of multiple layers, every one of which is changing and has to inter-operate with others. This makes our gadgets, the internet of things, phones and laptops unstable. And it makes consumers irritated. How many of your apps actually work--and actually make life easier, faster or more fun? I'd expect to see consumer cynicism grow, as delight is overtaken by disappointment. This will put pressure on hardware and software developers to deliver that most boring of qualities: reliability.
現(xiàn)今和未來的科技都基于多重技術(shù)，而每一種技術(shù)都在發(fā)生著改變、并和其他技術(shù)交互。這讓我們的科技產(chǎn)品，像是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的東西、電話、筆記本等等變得不穩(wěn)定，這同時(shí)也讓消費(fèi)者感到厭惡。就說說你們手機(jī)里的應(yīng)用，有多少你是真正在用的？又有多少真正能讓你的生活變簡單、變快捷、變得更有趣？我認(rèn)為消費(fèi)者對(duì)此的嘲諷情緒會(huì)上升，科技帶給他們的愉悅感會(huì)被失望所取代。這會(huì)給硬件和軟件的開發(fā)者造成壓力，從而讓他們追求最無趣的產(chǎn)品品質(zhì)：穩(wěn)定性。
2. Mobile overtakes the web.
移動(dòng)端取代網(wǎng)頁端。
Most technology developers are seeing app use grow and web use decline. That means companies have to have strong, fast, meaningful mobile platforms and those that don't lose customers.
大部分的科技從業(yè)人員都認(rèn)為移動(dòng)應(yīng)用會(huì)發(fā)展、而電腦應(yīng)用會(huì)減弱。這意味著企業(yè)都需要強(qiáng)勁、快捷和實(shí)用的移動(dòng)平臺(tái)，不重視這點(diǎn)的企業(yè)必然會(huì)失去消費(fèi)者。
3. Tablets meet viruses.
平板電腦的病毒出現(xiàn)。
As PC use declines, infecting them with viruses just won't be as much fun any more. I'd expect to see malware, worms and viruses jump onto tablets and phones. As a consequence, we will all have to start protecting our devices more assiduously.
隨著PC端的消亡，再用病毒攻擊他們就沒那么有趣了。我認(rèn)為惡意軟件、蠕蟲病毒和其他病毒都會(huì)很快入侵平板和手機(jī)。結(jié)果就是，我們要更賣力地保護(hù)自己的設(shè)備。
4. Manufacturing won't save the economy.
制造業(yè)也救不了經(jīng)濟(jì)。
I'm pleased to see manufacturing jobs returning to the U.S., but I don't expect the manufacturing industry to have the galvanic effect on the economy that many hope for. Why? Because automation will sharply erode the number of jobs any factory requires. The disappearance of blue-collar and entry-level jobs is already a problem, and that problem will grow.
我很高興看到制造業(yè)的工作機(jī)會(huì)又重回美國市場，但我不認(rèn)為它會(huì)像很多人期望的那樣，產(chǎn)生原電池效應(yīng)拯救經(jīng)濟(jì)。為什么？因?yàn)橹圃鞓I(yè)中的很多工作機(jī)會(huì)都被機(jī)械化的自動(dòng)生產(chǎn)取代了。藍(lán)領(lǐng)階層和基礎(chǔ)職位的消失已經(jīng)成了一個(gè)問題，而這個(gè)問題還將繼續(xù)擴(kuò)大。
5. Women keep rising.
女性地位繼續(xù)上升。
The appointment of Inga Beale to run Lloyds of London and of Mary Barra to run General Motors marked an encouraging end to 2013. Progress for women in the coming year will continue to be too little and too slow, but you should expect to see women in positions of power and influence everywhere. Even Japan is starting to try to get women into work.
Inga Beale出任倫敦勞埃德保險(xiǎn)公司CEO，Mary Barra 出任通用汽車高級(jí)副總裁，這些都為2013年的女性地位寫下了濃墨重彩的一筆。接下來的一年，女性地位還將繼續(xù)發(fā)展，但進(jìn)展會(huì)緩慢而微小，但你一定能隨處看到女性的權(quán)力和影響力。再怎么說，就連日本都開始鼓勵(lì)女性工作了呢。
6. Gene therapy comes good.
基因療法發(fā)展良好。
After decades of promise, new gene therapies are starting to deliver real results. Like all new therapies, communicating accurately how and where it works will prove as challenging as the treatment itself.
在經(jīng)歷了長達(dá)幾十年的許諾后，新的基因療法終于開始有了一些真實(shí)的好成果。不過就像所有的新型療法一樣，基因療法需要向公眾準(zhǔn)確地傳遞如何治療以及治療背后的原理，這和療法本身一樣具有挑戰(zhàn)性。
7. Trust will remain the single most critical business issue.
信任感依然會(huì)是商業(yè)領(lǐng)域中唯一且最關(guān)鍵的問題。
Do your customers trust you? Do they know what you do with their data and are they happy with it? This will be a major issue not just for the N.S.A., Microsoft and Google. Nor will Google Glass be the only product to provoke debate. Trust reduces the cost of doing business and those who don't build relationships of trust with their partners, suppliers and customers will feel the pinch.
你的消費(fèi)者信任你嗎？他們知道你都拿他們的個(gè)人信息干嘛去了嗎？你這么做他們高興嗎？這不僅僅是美國國家安全局、微軟和谷歌的問題。谷歌眼鏡也不會(huì)是唯一一個(gè)引發(fā)爭論的產(chǎn)品。如果你和你的顧客之間有足夠的信任，這會(huì)降低你做生意的成本；反之，那些不重視與合伙人、供應(yīng)商和消費(fèi)者建立信任關(guān)系的企業(yè)則會(huì)為之所累。
