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Stop me if you've heard this one before: An untested social media company with no revenue gets a mind-blowing offer. Against all advice, the cocky, twentysomething CEO refuses to sell. Meanwhile, competitors come out of the woodwork with lawsuits claiming their ideas were ripped off.
如果您以前聽過這句話，那就當我沒說：一家未經考驗，沒有任何收入的社交媒體公司獲得一個令人暈眩的的報價。不顧所有人的建議，那位自命不凡，二十出頭的CEO拒絕出售。與此同時，不知從哪兒冒出來的競爭對手突然發起訴訟，言之鑿鑿地聲稱他們的創意被竊取了。
The parallels between Snapchat, the upstart "sexting" service, and social media behemoth Facebook (FB) in its early days are uncanny. We all know how well Zuckerberg's long bet paid off (not to mention how thoroughly he vanquished those dastardly Winklevoss twins). Could Snapchat's future be just as bright?
迅速崛起的“色情短信”服務商Snapchat與早期的社交媒體巨頭Facebook具有令人不可思議的相似性。我們現在都知道扎克伯格早早就投下的賭注獲得了多大的成功（更不必說他還徹底擊敗了卑劣的文克萊沃斯孿生兄弟）。那么，Snapchat能否擁有同樣光明的未來？
Here's a look into social media's crystal ball for 2014. Will Snapchat catch fire? Will those annoying Promoted Tweets keep invading your Twitter stream? Will your boss finally learn to tweet? These five trends are poised to shake up the industry and the way we use social media in 2014:
現在，我們來預測一下社交媒體領域在2014年將發生哪些事情。Snapchat會火起來嗎？哪些煩人的“推廣消息”(Promoted Tweets)會不會持續不斷地入侵你的Twitter信息流？你的老板是否將終于學會如何使用Twitter？這五大趨勢有望撼動社交網絡世界，以及我們在2014年使用社交媒體的方式：
The rise of ephemeral social networks
“閱后即焚”社交網絡的興起
Regardless of whether or not you think Snapchat is worth the $3 billion Facebook offered it, one thing is clear: There's an appetite out there for so-called ephemeral networks, where content literally vanishes seconds after being received. And, contrary to popular perception, this isn't just about sexting and X-rated selfies (though it definitely is about that, too). As content on the major networks becomes more corporate and commoditized, Snapchat and services like it restore some of the fun and spontaneity to social media. Just like a real-life interaction -- where ideas flow freely and you generally don't worry about everything being recorded for posterity and broadcast to the world -- SnapChat and networks like it offer a channel for genuine, unfiltered exchange. And the kids really like it. While Facebook's own CFO officially acknowledged last month that teen use of his network is declining, the number of teens on SnapChat -- at least anecdotally -- is exploding.
無論你是否認為Snapchat配得上Facebook開出的30億美元報價，有一點確定無疑：所謂的“閱后即焚”（內容被接收數秒后自動消失）社交網絡擁有廣闊的市場應用空間。此外，與流行的看法相反，Snapchat傳播的內容不僅僅是色情短信和限制級的自拍照片，盡管它也的確是傳播這類信息的最佳平臺。隨著主流社交平臺的內容變得越來越商品化，以Snapchat為代表的“閱后即焚”平臺在某種程度上重新恢復了社交媒體本應具備的趣味性和自發性。就像現實生活中的互動交流一樣——創意自由流動，一般不用擔心一切事情都被記錄下來留給子孫后代觀瞻，傳遍整個世界——SnapChat提供了一個真實的、未經過濾的交流渠道。孩子們真的很喜歡它。Facebook公司自己的首席財務官上個月已正式承認，青少年使用Facebook的次數正在下降.而據坊間傳言，駐足于Snapchat的青少年數量正在呈爆炸式增長。
Learn to tweet. Your boss expects it
你的老板有望學會使用Twitter
You know the old guy who's been at the company forever and still can't figure out email? If you don't get up to speed on social media in 2014, you'll be that guy. Compared to last year, there are 13 times as many jobs advertised on Indeed.com that mention the use of social media. "We are seeing an increased demand for social savvy candidates across the business -- from human resources to product to customer service, " Amy Crow, Indeed's communication director told Quartz earlier this year. Not only are departments like marketing, sales, and customer service expected to be on Twitter (TWTR) and Facebook, teams as diverse as R&D, logistics, and HR are increasingly using internal networks like Yammer to streamline operations. Social media has grown so critical to the workplace, in fact, that major universities are beginning to offer certificate programs for socially inept corporate types to get up to speed.
你肯定知道，那個似乎永遠都待在公司的老家伙現在依然不會使用電子郵件。到了2014年，如果你跟不上社交媒體的新潮流，你就跟那個老家伙沒什么兩樣。今年發布于招聘信息搜索引擎Indeed.com的招聘廣告，提及社交媒體使用技能的是去年的13倍。Indeed公司傳訊總監艾米?克勞今年初接受數字經濟新聞網Quartz采訪時說：“從人力資源到產品開發，再到客戶服務，企業各個部門對精通社交媒體的求職者的需求正在急劇增加。”預計將出現在Twitter和Facebook上的不僅僅是市場、銷售和客服等部門，研發、物流和人力資源等差異巨大的團隊也越來越多地使用Yammer等內部網絡以簡化操作流程。事實上，社交媒體已經發展為職場技能的重要一環，就連各大高校現在也紛紛面向不善社交的企業開設認證項目，幫助它們適應日新月異的社交媒體世界。
Social customer service kills the dreaded phone tree
社交客服將殺死可怕的電話樹
The ability of customers to air their dirty laundry to the world via Twitter and Facebook has already changed the customer service game. A 2012 Nielsen survey shows more than half of all customers now turn to social media for redress; meanwhile, some 81% of Twitter users expect a same-day response to questions and complaints. But this fall, things got even more interesting: On Sept. 2, British Airways passenger Hasan Syed spent an estimated $1,000 to purchase several promoted Tweets blasting the company for losing luggage. With paid social media now in customers' arsenal, 2014 may mark the beginning of the end of abysmal customer service at major airlines, credit card companies, banks, and other repeat offenders, characterized by endless phone wait times and those automated "phone trees" (i.e., "Press 1 for English, 2 for Spanish, 3 to waste your entire afternoon on hold ...").
客戶通過Twitter 和Faceboo向世界傳播“糟糕經歷”的能力已經改變了客服世界的生態。尼爾森公司(Nielsen)2012年的一項調查顯示，超過一半的客戶現在通過社交媒體尋求補救措施；與此同時，在Twitter上提出問題或抱怨后，大約81%的用戶提出當天就能獲得回應。但在今年秋天，事情變得更加有趣：9月2日，英國航空公司(British Airways)乘客賽義德?哈桑斥資大約1,000美元，購買了幾條“推廣消息”，猛烈抨擊這家航空公司弄丟了他的行李。鑒于有償社交媒體推廣現已成為客戶的新武器，從2014年開始，各大航空公司、信用卡公司、銀行和其他累犯提供的糟糕透頂的客戶服務或將走向終結。無窮無盡的電話等待時間和那些自動化的“電話樹”（比如，“英語服務請按1，西班牙語服務請按2，您整整一個下午都需要等候接聽請按3”）或許將被扔入歷史的垃圾桶。
Social media finds you as you browse
社交網絡內容將出現在谷歌搜索結果頁面
From the beginning, social networks have been effectively walled off from the Internet. The treasure trove of content on Facebook, for instance, doesn't generally show up on Google (GOOG). But does it have to be that way? Wouldn't it be convenient to see Twitter search results automatically displayed alongside a standard Google search, for example? And why, for instance, don't the latest tweets about a restaurant pop up when you're searching Yelp (YELP)? The competing interests of different networks sends this content behind proprietary walls, but a number of tools offer creative ways to bridge the gulf. (Full disclosure: My company has developed one such tool.)
從一開始，社交網絡就被有效地隔離在互聯網之外。比如，Facebook的海量內容通常不會顯示在谷歌( Google )搜索結果之中。但是否非得是這種情形？比方說，Twitter搜索結果自動出現在一個標準的谷歌搜索顯示頁面，豈不是更方便？再比如，當你搜索Yelp時，為什么關于某家餐廳的最新Twitter消息沒有顯現出來呢？由于利益相悖，不同社交網絡往往把各自的內容封鎖在專利保護墻之內，但也有不少工具致力于創造性地彌合這道鴻溝。需要說明的是，本文作者的公司已經開發出了這樣一種工具。
Get ready to see ads from the neighborhood pub on Twitter
準備接收附近酒吧發布的微博廣告吧
Native social media ads -- the ones that appear right in your Twitter and Facebook streams -- exploded in 2013. Love 'em or hate 'em, they're only getting bigger in 2014. This year, expect some significant, if slightly creepy, advances in location-specific targeting. Twitter, for instance, just unveiled a feature enabling paid Tweets to be targeted by zip code. You walk into a neighborhood, for instance, and suddenly Promoted Tweets for the local watering hole, dry cleaner, and McDonald's (MCD) pop up in your Twitter stream. This kind of "geo-fencing," which Facebook has had since 2011, enables businesses to court nearby customers who might actually want to get ads offering special deals, in-store specials, etc. The upside: more relevant ads and promos you can actually use. The downside: more ads.
本地社交媒體廣告，即那些恰好出現在你的Twitter和Facebook信息流之中的廣告，在2013年爆炸式增長。2014年，無論你愛也好，恨也罷，這類廣告的規模只會變得越來越大。，盡管聽起來有點讓人毛骨悚然，但特定位置定位技術預計將在來年出現顯著改進。Twitter剛剛推出了一項面向特定郵政編碼區域發送有償消息的功能。比如，當你走進一個社區，當地酒吧、干洗店和麥當勞(McDonald's)發布的“推廣消息”就會突然閃現在你的Twitter信息流之中。自2011年來，Facebook一直在采用這種“地理圍欄”技術。它能夠讓商家招攬臨近的客戶，這些客戶實際上可能也想獲得提供特別優惠和特價商品的廣告信息。好處是，你可以獲得更多相關的廣告和推銷信息。缺點同樣是，更多的廣告。
