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PC的身份危機(jī)

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The question "What is a PC?" has been bemusing analysts and industry observers since long before the introduction of the iPad -- but especially since. The answer is not so simple. In some ways, it's a question of mere rhetoric. But when it comes to analyzing markets and companies, it becomes a lot more than that.

“什么是PC?”——雖然這個(gè)問題早在iPad問世之前就已經(jīng)讓分析人士和業(yè)內(nèi)觀察人士困擾多時(shí),但iPad的問世使他們的困擾陡然加深。這個(gè)問題并不是簡(jiǎn)簡(jiǎn)單單就能回答得了的。從某種程度上講,討論它只是浪費(fèi)口舌,但是要想分析市場(chǎng)行情和公司業(yè)績(jī),這個(gè)問題又非同小可。
Tablets and smartphones have been cutting into PC sales for years. That's because for many people, the newer gadgets do everything they had previously counted on PCs -- including laptops -- for: email, Web browsing, watching video. But in general, they don't do everything that powerful PCs can do or not quite as well, such as video editing, hardcore gaming, programming. Many consumers still want or need a laptop or a desktop machine.
多年來,平板電腦和智能手機(jī)一直在擠占PC的銷售市場(chǎng)。這是因?yàn)椋瑢?duì)于很多人來說,這些新潮而精巧的小機(jī)器已經(jīng)具備他們需要的所有PC(包括筆記本電腦)功能,比如收發(fā)郵件、瀏覽網(wǎng)頁、觀看視頻。但是總體上講,它們有些功能還無法與強(qiáng)大的PC相匹敵,比如視頻剪輯、發(fā)燒游戲和編程。很多消費(fèi)者依然想要、或者需要一臺(tái)筆記本或臺(tái)式機(jī)。
It might sound silly at first to define a smartphone as a "PC." But lots of people who otherwise might have purchased a PC have opted instead for a smartphone, since it does everything they in particular need from a computing device. That's even more true of tablets -- and it will be increasingly so as the differences between tablets, even phones, and PCs narrow. Soon enough, many of us will be carrying the equivalent of a PC around with us to use as a tablet when we're mobile, and then plugging it in at home, attaching it to a keyboard, and using it as a fully functional PC.
把智能手機(jī)定義為“PC”乍聽之下或許有些愚蠢。但是很多潛在的PC買家之所以沒有買PC,而是買了智能手機(jī),就是因?yàn)樗麄冃枰?jì)算設(shè)備實(shí)現(xiàn)的所有功能,智能手機(jī)都已經(jīng)具備。至于平板電腦,那就更不用說了——而且它還會(huì)越來越受歡迎,因?yàn)槠桨咫娔X同PC的差異一直在縮小(甚至手機(jī)也是如此)。用不了多久,我們當(dāng)中就會(huì)有很多人出門帶著PC的替代品當(dāng)平板電腦使,回到家后就把它插上電源、接上鍵盤,這樣它就變成了一臺(tái)功能齊全的PC。
Hardware and software makers may have helped blur the distinction. Microsoft's (MSFT) new Windows 8 operating system can be operated like a traditional desktop PC or via a tablet-like interface that is compatible with touch and gestures. Apple's (AAPL) Mac OS, meanwhile, has adopted some features of iOS, the operating system powering millions of iPads, iPods, and iPhones, though the company doesn't currently sell any touchscreen enabled desktops or laptops. And beleaguered hardware manufacturers have adopted touchscreen technology and ultrathin packages that draw from both tablets and laptops. These so-called convertible laptops, like Lenovo's Ideapad Yoga, double as both because their screens can be flipped back and forth.
平板電腦與PC的界限之所以一天天變得模糊,硬件和軟件制造商或許也起到了推波助瀾的作用。微軟(Microsoft)新推出的Windows 8操作系統(tǒng)既可以安裝在傳統(tǒng)的筆記本PC上,也可以安裝在與手勢(shì)觸控兼容的平板界面上。蘋果(Apple)的Mac OS操作系統(tǒng)也融入了iOS的一些特性,而iOS是讓數(shù)以百萬計(jì)的iPad、iPod和iPhone發(fā)揮強(qiáng)大功能的操作系統(tǒng)。不過,目前蘋果公司尚未推出任何可觸屏的筆記本或臺(tái)式機(jī)。硬件制造商在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的圍追堵截下則紛紛借鑒平板電腦和筆記本,采用觸屏科技和超薄封裝。這些所謂的翻轉(zhuǎn)本,比如聯(lián)想(Lenovo)的Ideapad Yoga,既可以做筆記本,也可以當(dāng)平板電腦,因?yàn)樗鼈兊钠聊豢梢?60度翻轉(zhuǎn)。
For the moment, the PC is confused. Consider how market researchers and stock analysts often measure the computer market. Last year, the research firm Canalys declared that Apple had become the world's largest maker of PCs. But that was only because the firm included tablets (which it called "pads") in its findings. "Pads," Canalys said, made up about a quarter of all sales of PCs.
現(xiàn)在,人們對(duì)PC的概念已是一頭霧水。想想市場(chǎng)研究公司和證券分析師是怎么衡量計(jì)算機(jī)市場(chǎng)行情的吧。去年,市場(chǎng)研究公司Canalys宣布,蘋果已成為全球最大的PC制造商,但這只是把平板電腦(也就是它所說的“pad”)算進(jìn)PC中的結(jié)果。Canalys表示,“Pad”的銷量占所有PC銷量的四分之一左右。
Not surprisingly, the Canalys report got lots of attention and stirred much debate. Harry McCracken of Time magazine took the opportunity to poll his readers to find out what they thought. He added his own analysis and decided that a device is a PC if it meets the following criteria: It run apps; it is general-purpose (and not meant for singular uses, like a game console); it is meant to be used by one person at a time.
不出意外,Canalys的報(bào)告引起了很大的關(guān)注,也引發(fā)了一場(chǎng)熱議。《時(shí)代》周刊(Time )編輯哈里?麥克拉肯借機(jī)發(fā)起了投票,調(diào)查讀者的想法。他還附上了自己的分析,認(rèn)為一臺(tái)設(shè)備如果符合下述條件,就可以稱為PC:第一,它能運(yùn)行應(yīng)用程序;第二,它具備多種用途(而不是像游戲機(jī)這樣的專用機(jī)器);第三,它適合個(gè)人使用。
He then took a leap and said a PC can be "any size," meaning smartphones can count. But that assumption distorts the market for the simple reason that most people who own smartphones also own a PC or a tablet. Similarly, there are those who buy a tablet in addition to a PC, and others who buy them instead of a new PC. Granular analyses are needed to get a full handle on how and to what degree both tablets and phones are supplanting what most people think of as traditional PCs, and to what degree such devices are purchased as supplements to PCs. (Macs of course are included in the definition of PC, unless it's clear from context that they're being differentiated from machines running Windows.)
他接著做出了大膽的假設(shè),說PC可以是“任何尺寸”,也就是說智能手機(jī)也可以算作PC的一種。但是這個(gè)假設(shè)扭曲了市場(chǎng)。原因很簡(jiǎn)單,那就是大多數(shù)智能手機(jī)用戶同時(shí)也擁有PC或者平板電腦。同樣,有些人買了PC之后也還是會(huì)買平板電腦,還有些人PC用舊了也不去換新的,而是去買平板電腦。我們還需要進(jìn)行粒化分析(粒就是指一些個(gè)體通過不分明關(guān)系、相似關(guān)系、鄰近關(guān)系或功能關(guān)系等所形成的塊。這種處理信息的過程.稱信息粒化。——譯注),以了解平板電腦和手機(jī)究竟是以何種方式、在何種程度上擠占傳統(tǒng)PC的市場(chǎng),以及有多少人會(huì)購買這類設(shè)備來補(bǔ)充PC的局限。(蘋果機(jī)當(dāng)然也是PC的一種,除非有什么前提可以明確表明它們與Windows系統(tǒng)的機(jī)器有所不同。)
Since the Canalys report was issued, the confusion has only deepened both because researchers define the market differently and because the gulf between PCs and tablets is quickly narrowing. That confusion sometimes makes it hard to measure various market trends. A Bank of America Merrill Lynch report on search-engine use in January had to rely on numbers solely from (traditional) PCs because comparable data on mobile searches wasn't available. Is it even meaningful to note that searches on the four major search services -- Google (GOOG), Bing (MSFT), Yahoo (YHOO), and Ask -- rose by 9% in January from the previous year, when mobile data isn't included? "Unfortunately we do not have mobile query data to see the full picture for query growth," BofA's note read. So the report threw in the fact that some search advertisers estimated that mobile searches made up about 15% of the total.
自從Canalys的報(bào)告發(fā)布后,人們對(duì)PC的概念更加困惑了。一方面是因?yàn)椴煌难芯咳藛T對(duì)市場(chǎng)的定義不同,另一方面是因?yàn)镻C和平板電腦的區(qū)別在迅速縮小。這種概念上的含混不清使我們難以估測(cè)各種各樣的市場(chǎng)趨勢(shì)。美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)今年1月發(fā)布的搜索引擎使用報(bào)告只有唯一的一個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)來源,那就是(傳統(tǒng))PC,因?yàn)闊o法獲取移動(dòng)設(shè)備搜索引擎的參照數(shù)據(jù)。如果不把移動(dòng)設(shè)備的數(shù)據(jù)算進(jìn)去,就算得出結(jié)論,宣稱今年1月四大搜索引擎——谷歌(Google)、必應(yīng)(Bing)、雅虎(Yahoo)和Ask——的搜索數(shù)量同比增長(zhǎng)了9%,又有什么意義呢?“不幸的是,我們沒有移動(dòng)設(shè)備的搜索數(shù)據(jù),無法反映搜索數(shù)量增長(zhǎng)的全景。”美銀在注解中解釋。于是,這份報(bào)告附帶地提到了一個(gè)事實(shí):據(jù)一些搜索引擎廣告商估計(jì),移動(dòng)設(shè)備的搜索數(shù)量約占搜索總量的15%。
The distinction between PCs and mobile devices remains important for analyzing other allied industries as well. The market for chips that run mobile devices is quite different from the market for chips that run PCs. A Morningstar report this month noted that chipmaker AMD's (AMD) recent troubles are in part due to the "headwinds" it faces thanks to "rapid tablet adoption." Meanwhile, Intel (INTC), which is dominant in desktop PCs, is coming under increasing pressure to show results in its mobile chip sales.
有效區(qū)分PC和移動(dòng)設(shè)備對(duì)于分析其他配套行業(yè)也很重要。移動(dòng)設(shè)備的芯片市場(chǎng)和PC的芯片市場(chǎng)區(qū)別很大。晨星公司(Morningstar)這個(gè)月發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告表明,芯片制造商AMD最近之所以麻煩纏身,部分原因在于“平板電腦迅速普及”帶來的困境。無獨(dú)有偶,在PC臺(tái)式機(jī)市場(chǎng)占據(jù)統(tǒng)治地位的英特爾(Intel),為了在移動(dòng)設(shè)備的芯片市場(chǎng)做出一番業(yè)績(jī),也面臨著日益沉重的壓力。
But when looking at the market as a whole, sans all these complicating factors, the trend is clear: Over the five years leading up to the release of the iPad two years ago, sales of traditional PCs and laptops grew anywhere between 5% and 15% a year, depending on the year and data source. Last year, sales declined about 5%, and a similar decline is forecast for next year. Over the 2012 holiday gift season, PC sales declined by between 6% and 10% over the previous year (again, depending on whose data you believe), even as the economy was recovering. Tablet sales leaped by between 60% and 80% during the season. Lots of people are buying tablets and forgoing traditional PCs.
但是如果我們把這些錯(cuò)綜復(fù)雜的要素一概剔除,縱觀市場(chǎng)全局,那么市場(chǎng)的趨勢(shì)就顯而易見了:兩年前,iPad問世。在此之前的五年時(shí)間里,傳統(tǒng)PC和筆記本的年銷量增長(zhǎng)在5%和15%之間,具體的增長(zhǎng)率取決于年份和數(shù)據(jù)來源。去年,傳統(tǒng)PC和筆記本的銷量下跌了5%,預(yù)計(jì)明年還會(huì)有類似幅度的下跌。2012年全年的節(jié)假旺季,盡管經(jīng)濟(jì)在復(fù)蘇,PC的銷量依然同比下跌了6%到10%(具體跌幅還是取決于大家各自采信的數(shù)據(jù)來源)。同一時(shí)期,平板電腦的銷量暴漲了60%到80%。很多人開始購買平板電腦,而對(duì)傳統(tǒng)PC棄之不顧。
That trend will continue. Over the coming months, more-powerful hybrid and convertible tablets will be coming on the market, and it seems clear that in just a few years time the differences between tablets and PCs will be negligible, at least from a consumer's point of view, though there will still be a market for traditional PCs for certain computing tasks.
這個(gè)趨勢(shì)還會(huì)繼續(xù)下去。接下來的幾個(gè)月,更強(qiáng)大的滑蓋式、翻轉(zhuǎn)式平板電腦將陸續(xù)上市。顯然,不出幾年,平板電腦和PC之間的區(qū)別將變得微乎其微,至少在消費(fèi)者的眼中是如此。當(dāng)然,傳統(tǒng)PC也還是會(huì)有市場(chǎng),因?yàn)槿藗冃枰盟瓿商囟ǖ挠?jì)算任務(wù)。

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