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Time to unfurl Old Glory and break out the red, white and blue boxer shorts.
隨著倫敦奧運會的臨近，是時候讓星條旗在空中飄揚、穿上我們的紅白藍國旗色短褲了！
Four years after China became the first country since 1992 to win more Olympic gold medals than the U.S., The Wall Street Journal's medal projections for London suggest the Star-Spangled Banner will once again play more often than any other anthem.And for the fifth consecutive Summer Games, the U.S. should finish atop the overall medal table.
四年前的北京奧運會，中國成為1992年以來首個奧運金牌數超過美國的國家。四年之后，《華爾街日報》對倫敦奧運會的獎牌預測顯示，星條旗在賽場上升起的次數將再次超過其他參賽國家，同時美國的獎牌總數也有望連續在五屆夏季奧運會上蟬聯榜首。
China's victory in the gold-medal race in 2008 was supposed to herald the arrival of the newest Olympic superpower, a vast country with 1.3 billion people and a proven government-sponsored training program. Even at the U.S. Olympic Committee headquarters in Colorado Springs, there was a growing sense that China would win the most gold and overall medals in 2012.
中國在2008年北京奧運會的金牌角逐中拔得頭籌，這本應預示著一個奧運超級大國的誕生：一個擁有13億人口、運動員的訓練由政府資助的大國。即便是在美國奧委會(U.S. Olympic Committee)位于科羅拉多斯普林斯(Colorado Springs)的總部，認為中國將在2012年獲得最多金牌和獎牌的人也越來越多。
Instead, London should vindicate America's decentralized and entrepreneurial approach to developing the world's best athletes. The Wall Street Journal's projections show Team U.S.A.'s 530 athletes should leave London with 40 gold medals and 108 overall, topping the Chinese, who are projected to collect 38 gold medals and 92 overall.
然而，美國培養全世界最優秀運動員的那種分散型、主動進取的方法有望在倫敦奧運會獲得證明。根據本報的預測，美國奧運代表團的530名運動員有望在倫敦奧運會上拿下40枚金牌、108枚獎牌，將超過中國代表團的38枚金牌和92枚獎牌。
The Journal's forecasting system takes into account basic information such as interviews with experts and the performances of athletes in recent national and international competitions. But rather than simply anointing first-, second- and third-place finishers in each event and calling it a day, the model assigns probabilities to the top medal contenders, then uses those probabilities to project the most likely outcomes.
我們的預測體系考慮到了很多基本信息，例如對專家的采訪以及運動員在最近的國內和國際比賽上的表現。我們不僅僅是指出每項賽事的第一、第二和第三名就算了事，而是根據模型得出熱門獎牌人選的獲勝概率，然后通過這些概率來預測可能性最大的結果。
For instance, the U.S. women's basketball team, which hasn't lost a game at the Olympics since 1992, is an 80% favorite to win the gold by our count-while the next most likely winners come in at 10%. Serbian tennis star Novak Djokovic, who has to prevail over stiff competition from Roger Federer and hometown favorite Andy Murray, has just a 40% chance for gold. After tallying those probabilities, we enlisted sports actuary John Dewan, owner of Baseball Info Solutions, to run 1,000 simulations of the Games.
例如，根據我們的計算，自1992年以來便一直獨攬奧運金牌的美國女籃贏得金牌的勝算是80%，而位居其次的隊伍的勝算只有10%。再以塞爾維亞網球明星諾瓦克•德約科維奇(Novak Djokovic)為例，他若要拿下金牌，得要在與羅杰•費德勒(Roger Federer)及英國本土選手安迪•穆雷(Andy Murray)的激烈競爭中獲勝，因此他贏得冠軍的概率只有40%。在得出這些概率之后，我們請來體育比賽精算師、Baseball Info Solutions網站的所有人約翰•杜文(John Dewan)對倫敦奧運會進行了1,000次模擬。
The results were emphatic: The U.S. won or tied for the most medals 998 times. And while the gold-medal race was less certain, the U.S. won it 746 times to 304 for China. There were 57 ties and seven scenarios in which Russia was a surprise winner.
結果非常明顯：在這1,000次模擬中，美國有998次獲得最多獎牌或是與他國并列獲得最多獎牌。關于金牌的角逐則多了一些不確定性，其中美國獲勝的次數是746次，中國是304次。此外，還有57次是美國與他國并列金牌榜榜首，另有7次是俄羅斯意外登頂榜首。
Some events were so close they were tough to handicap. This year, there's a cracker of a match before the Opening Ceremony even takes place, as the U.S. women's soccer team takes on a talented French side in a rematch of their 2011 World Cup semifinal. We expect the U.S. to survive on the strength of deadly scoring duo Abby Wambach and Alex Morgan, and to earn a medal, but the match shouldn't be missed.
有些比賽的參賽隊伍的水平不相上下，難以預測它們的勝負。在今年，開幕式還未拉開帷幕就有好戲上演，美國女足與頗具實力的法國女足被分在了同一個小組，將再次上演2011年女足世界杯半決賽的一幕。我們預測美國隊將能依靠阿比•瓦姆巴赫(Abby Wambach)和亞歷克斯•摩根(Alex Morgan)這個得分絕殺二人組從小組出線并獲得獎牌，這是一場不容錯過的比賽。
Same goes for the showdown in the men's 110-meter hurdles, where China's Liu Xiang, Cuba's Dayron Robles, and Jayson Richardson of the U.S. are all capable of winning gold and setting a world record. Wall Street Journal projections have Xiang and Robles in a dead heat. And only a fool would miss the men's 200-meter freestyle, where American Ryan Lochte should beat France's Yannick Agnel by a fingernail, but not more.
此外，男子110米欄的決戰同樣也將難分勝負。中國的劉翔、古巴的戴龍•羅伯斯(Dayron Robles)以及美國的杰森•理查德森(Jayson Richardson)都有贏得金牌和創造世界紀錄的實力。我們預測劉翔和羅伯斯的爭奪將非常膠著。此外，恐怕只有傻子才會錯過男子200米自由泳的比賽，我們預計美國選手瑞恩•羅切特(Ryan Lochte)將僅僅以極其微弱的優勢擊敗法國選手雅尼克•阿涅爾(Yannick Agnel)。
As for individual sports disciplines, the predictions show the U.S. dominating where it usually does-in medal-rich swimming and track and field. Those two sports should account for 57 U.S. medals, or 53% of the U.S. haul. Swimmer Michael Phelps isn't chasing eight gold medals again, but he could easily win five gold and seven overall.
至于個人運動項目，根據我們的預測，美國將如往常一樣在獎牌數量眾多的游泳和田徑項目中占據統治地位。這兩個運動項目可能將給美國貢獻57塊獎牌，約占美國獎牌總數的53%。游泳運動員邁克爾•菲爾普斯(Michael Phelps)可能難以重現當年斬獲八枚金牌的雄風，但是應該還是能夠輕松拿下五枚金牌，總共應能獲得七枚獎牌。
Chinese success in winning medals relies less on raw athletic talent than it does on intense training. The Chinese do best in the sorts of events where a tireless commitment to practice pays dividends. China, for example, should rack up medals in weightlifting (eight), diving (nine) and table tennis (six). In 2008, China won 16 medals in badminton and shooting and just two in swimming and track. Its swimming is improved, thanks to distance specialist Sun Yang, who is expected to win both the 1,500-meter and 400-meter freestyle races.
中國贏得的獎牌更多地依賴于高強度的訓練，而非與生具來的運動天賦。中國運動員在不知疲倦的專心訓練能夠帶來成功的運動項目中表現最佳。例如，中國可能會在舉重（預計會獲得八枚獎牌）、跳水（九枚獎牌）和乒乓球（六枚獎牌）這些項目中獲得較多獎牌。在2008年北京奧運會上，中國在羽毛球和射擊比賽中獲得了六枚獎牌，但在游泳和田徑比賽中只獲得兩枚獎牌。得益于長距離游泳健將孫楊的出現，中國的游泳成績有所提高，我們預計孫楊有望獲得1,500米和400米自由泳的冠軍。
Britain's Olympic improvement should continue, too, with the country's hopes riding on a few key athletes, including distance runner Mo Farah, who may try to pull off the rare feat of winning both the 5,000- and 10,000-meter races. Meanwhile, Germany should continue to confound the experts, winning just 49 overall medals, far below what a country so populous, wealthy and successful at the Winter Olympics should.
至于東道主英國，它在奧運會上的戰績可能會繼續提高，英國的希望主要寄托在幾名關鍵運動員身上，包括長跑運動員莫•法拉赫(Mo Farah)，他有可能獲得5,000米和10,000米雙料冠軍這樣的驕人成績。與此同時，德國的表現可能會繼續讓專家們感到困惑，預計它將僅獲得49枚獎牌，這遠遠低于一個人口眾多、生活富裕而且在冬奧會上表現搶眼的國家的應有水平。
On the other end of the spectrum: Jamaica. Led by Usain Bolt, the planet's fastest man, and the world's top sprint team, Jamaica should claim a dozen medals, four of them gold. Not bad for a country of just 2.9 million people.
境況處于另一極端的是牙買加。在地球上跑得最快的人──烏塞恩•博爾特(Usain Bolt)及世界頂尖的短跑軍團的帶領下，牙買加有望斬獲十多枚獎牌，其中有四枚是金牌。對于一個只有290萬人口的國家來說，這是一個不俗的成績。
