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Further evidence of the tough conditions facing international airlines emerged in Australia on Tuesday after flagship carrier Qantas Airways Ltd. said it will post a full-year loss and the president of Emirates, the Middle East's largest airline, warned of a "perfect storm" in the industry that could force many airlines to downsize.
有關(guān)國際航空公司面臨惡劣環(huán)境的更多證據(jù)周二在澳大利亞浮現(xiàn)。此前，澳大利亞旗艦航空公司澳洲航空公司(Qantas Airways Ltd.，簡稱澳航)說將公布全年虧損的數(shù)據(jù)，而中東最大航空公司阿聯(lián)酋航空(Emirates Airline)的總裁也提醒說，航空業(yè)可能出現(xiàn)迫使很多公司瘦身的“完美風(fēng)暴”。
Qantas is forecasting as much as a 91% slump in pretax earnings for the fiscal year ending June 30 amid a drop in passenger numbers. The airline is trying to restructure its unprofitable long-haul business and cut costs in areas such as staffing, aircraft maintenance and fuel.
澳航稱，由于乘客人次減少，預(yù)計在截至6月30日這一財年公司稅前收益下滑幅度或?qū)⑦_(dá)到91%。該公司目前正努力將其不盈利的長途飛行業(yè)務(wù)進(jìn)行重組，同時在人員、飛機(jī)維護(hù)和燃料等方面削減成本。
Higher fuel costs and a treacherous economic environment are weighing on global airlines, including Qantas and Emirates Airline. Asia's carriers last year earned 47% less in net profit than in 2010, at US$4.8 billion, according to the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines. Last month, Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. said it was considering whether to accelerate the retirement of aging aircraft after it warned of 'disappointing' first-half financial results. Singapore Airlines Ltd. and Korean Airlines recently posted quarterly losses, forcing both to rethink schedules and adjust aircraft deployment to boost profits.
不斷上漲的燃料價格和暗流涌動的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境令全球航空公司承壓，包括澳航和阿聯(lián)酋航空。據(jù)亞太航協(xié)(Association of Asia Pacific Airlines)統(tǒng)計，亞洲航空公司去年實現(xiàn)凈利潤48億美元，較2010年跌47%。國泰航空有限公司(Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd.)上個月說，正在考慮是否加快老化飛機(jī)的淘汰速度。該公司此前曾警告說，今年上半年的財務(wù)業(yè)績可能令人失望。新加坡航空公司(Singapore Airlines Ltd.)和大韓航空(Korean Airlines)前不久也公布了季度虧損，因此均不得不為提高利潤而重新考慮航班安排并調(diào)整飛機(jī)調(diào)度問題。
Even fast-growing Middle East airlines, once perceived to be immune from global trends, have started to voice concern about business conditions. "It's a perfect storm of adversity now facing airlines," Tim Clark, president of Dubai-based Emirates Airline, said in an interview. 'The euro is going south, the pound is going south, fuel costs are still too high.'
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images燃油成本和日趨疲軟的經(jīng)濟(jì)正給亞太地區(qū)的航空公司帶來麻煩。圖為新加坡，一名澳航的飛行員正在檢查一架空客飛機(jī)的尾部。就連快速增長的中東地區(qū)的航空公司也開始對航空業(yè)面臨的環(huán)境表示擔(dān)憂。這些航空公司一度被認(rèn)為不受全球趨勢的影響。總部位于迪拜的阿聯(lián)酋航空的總裁克拉克(Tim Clark)接受采訪時說，歐元正在走弱，英鎊也在走弱，當(dāng)前的燃料價格依舊太高。
Amid those challenges, though, Abu Dhabi-based Etihad Airways said Tuesday it has bought a nearly 4% stake in Qantas rival Virgin Australia Ltd. Shares in Virgin Australia closed at 41 Australian cents (40 U.S. cents) each Monday, leaving the company with a market capitalization of 906.2 million Australian dollars (US$881.5 million). That gives an implied valuation of A$35.9 million on Etihad's 3.96% stake.
盡管面臨著眾多挑戰(zhàn)，總部位于阿布扎比的阿提哈德航空公司(Etihad Airways)周二仍說，該公司收購了與澳航的競爭對手維珍澳大利亞航空公司(Virgin Australia Ltd.)近4%的股份。維珍澳大利亞航空的股價周一收于每股0.41澳元（合0.40美元）。按照這個價格推算，該公司的市值為9.062億澳元（合8.815億美元），而阿提哈德航空收購該公司3.96%的股份應(yīng)該花了3,590萬澳元。
A spokesman for Etihad said it would like to raise its holding to at least 10%. Etihad operates 24 flights a week between Abu Dhabi in the Persian Gulf and Australia.
阿提哈德航空的發(fā)言人說，希望將對維珍澳大利亞航空的持股比例提高至最少10%。阿提哈德航空每周有24個航班往返于阿布扎比和澳大利亞。阿布扎比位于波斯灣(Persian Gulf)。
Mr. Clark of Emirates cautioned that many global carriers could be forced to retrench. Last month, Emirates said its latest fiscal-year net profit fell 72% after the company took a US$1.6 billion hit from high fuel costs. Mr. Clark added Tuesday that the price of Brent crude oil will need to drop to between US$80 and US$90 a barrel, from about US$100, to revive margins.
克拉克提醒說，全球很多航空公司可能都會被迫壓縮開支。阿聯(lián)酋航空上個月說，公司最近一個財年的凈利潤跌幅達(dá)72%，高昂的燃油價格使得成本上升了16億美元。克拉克周二還說，布倫特原油價格要從目前的每桶約100美元跌至80至90美元，才有可能恢復(fù)原來的利潤率。
The International Air Transport Association in March cut its forecast for airlines'2012 net profit to a combined US$3 billion, off from US$3.5 billion in an earlier estimate.
國際航空運輸協(xié)會(International Air Transport Association)今年3月將其對全球航空公司2012年凈利潤的預(yù)測從此前估計的35億美元下調(diào)至30億美元。
Concern that Qantas will need to raise funds to retain its investment-grade debt rating helped drive the company's shares to a record low Tuesday. The stock ended down 19% at 1.16 Australian dollars (US$1.13) a share after the profit warning. Chief Executive Alan Joyce said Qantas has a cash balance of more than A$3 billion and an undrawn debt facility of A$300 million that it can draw on if Europe's economic problems turn global, hitting commercial aviation.
周二，由于市場擔(dān)心澳航需要籌集資金以維持其投資級的債務(wù)評級，其股價因此被拉低至紀(jì)錄低位。在公司發(fā)出盈利預(yù)警之后，澳航股價收盤跌19%，至1.16澳元（約合1.13美元）。澳航的首席執(zhí)行長喬伊斯(Alan Joyce)說，澳航的現(xiàn)金余額超過30億澳元，還未動用的信貸額度有3億澳元，如果歐洲的經(jīng)濟(jì)問題影響到全球，沖擊到商業(yè)航空市場，那么澳航可以動用這些信貸額度。
Still, Mr. Joyce said Qantas has the 'flexibility to reinstate or further reduce capital investment as appropriate.'
不僅如此，喬伊斯還說澳航擁有一定的靈活度，能夠重新進(jìn)行或進(jìn)一步縮減資本投資，以將其保持在適當(dāng)?shù)乃健?
The airline already plans to delay two deliveries of A380 superjumbo jetliners, valued at US$390 million each at list prices, from the Airbus unit of European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co. Qantas in August ordered as many as 110 single-aisle A320 Airbus jets, valued at US$9 billion at list prices, in the biggest single aircraft order in Australian history. The order included 78 A320neos, the more fuel-efficient version of the A320, that Qantas will operate primarily on domestic and Asian routes. Qantas is also awaiting delivery of 50 Boeing Co. 787 Dreamliners.
澳航已經(jīng)計劃推遲從歐洲航空防務(wù)和航天公司(European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co., 簡稱EADS)旗下的空中客車公司(Airbus)接收兩架A380超大型客機(jī)，按目錄價格計算，每架客機(jī)的售價為3.9億美元。去年8月，澳航訂購了多達(dá)110架空客單走道A320客機(jī)，按目錄價格計算，訂單價值達(dá)90億美元。這是澳大利亞歷史上單筆額度最高的飛機(jī)訂單。訂單中包括78架A320neo。A320neo是A320的改款機(jī)型，其燃油效率更高。澳航將主要在國內(nèi)和亞洲航線上使用A320neo。澳航也正在等待波音公司(Boeing Co.)交付50架787夢想客機(jī)(787 Dreamliner)。
As of June 30 last year, Qantas had net debt including off balance-sheet liabilities of 6.97 billion Australian dollars (US$6.78 billion). The airline said Tuesday that its pretax profit could fall as much as 91% to A$50 million for the fiscal year ending later this month. Most analysts had expected pretax earnings of about A$300 million.
截至去年6月30日，澳航的凈債務(wù)（包括表外負(fù)債）達(dá)到了69.7億澳元（約合67.8億美元）。澳航周二表示，在截至今年6月底的這一財年其稅前利潤降幅可能高達(dá)91%，至5,000萬澳元。大多數(shù)分析師此前預(yù)計澳航這一財年的稅前利潤能夠達(dá)到約3億澳元。
"People were aware of the economic environment but it's really starting to bite into earnings," said Angus Gluskie, managing director of White Funds Management, which holds a small stake in Qantas. "It's also biting into cash flows. It's highly likely you're going to see them needing capital very shortly."
White Funds Management的董事總經(jīng)理格拉斯基(Angus Gluskie)說，人們已經(jīng)意識到經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境不好，但這已經(jīng)開始影響到公司利潤，同時還影響到現(xiàn)金流；你很可能將會看到這些公司馬上需要資金的情況。White Funds Management持有澳航少數(shù)股份。
Qantas is seeking to turn around its unprofitable long-haul business, which the carrier aims to return to break-even by 2014. To stem losses, the airline is terminating poorly-performing routes, cutting thousands of jobs, consolidating engineering and catering bases, and establishing joint ventures in Asia such as Jetstar Japan and Jetstar Hong Kong.
澳航正試圖轉(zhuǎn)變長途航線無法盈利的狀況，澳航的目標(biāo)是到2014年前該項業(yè)務(wù)能夠重新實現(xiàn)盈虧平衡。為了遏制虧損，澳航關(guān)停了業(yè)績不佳的航線，削減了數(shù)千個就業(yè)機(jī)會，合并了工程和餐飲基地，在亞洲設(shè)立了捷星日本(Jetstar Japan) 和捷星香港(Jetstar Hong Kong)等合資企業(yè)。
Despite Tuesday's profit warning, the status of the company's investment-grade rating is likely to be dependent on the outcome of the airline's strategic review. "Very importantly from a credit perspective is the trend in cash flow over the next two years," said May Zhong, a credit analyst at Standard & Poor's.
盡管周二公布了盈利預(yù)警，但澳航能否保住投資級的債務(wù)評級可能取決于澳航戰(zhàn)略審查的結(jié)果。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾(Standard & Poor's)的信用分析師May Zhong說，未來兩年澳航的現(xiàn)金流變化趨勢對其信用評級十分重要。
