Petrochina Soars, But How Big Is It?

PetroChina Co., the main oil and gas producer in China, became the world's biggest company in the course of a few hours of trading yesterday. Or did it?

中國主要石油和天然氣生產(chǎn)商中國石油天然氣股份有限公司(Petrochina Co., 簡稱：中國石油)在周一幾個小時的交易時間內(nèi)成為了全球最大的公司。但是，它真的名副其實嗎？

PetroChina's stunning debut on the Shanghai Stock Exchange again demonstrated the force of China's bull market, which has more than doubled its benchmark stock index so far this year. The company, which also lists shares in Hong Kong and American depositary shares in New York, saw its Shanghai share price more than double on its first day of trading after it raised $8.9 billion in its first share sale in mainland China. By some measures, PetroChina could now be valued at more than $1 trillion, which would make it by far the world's largest company by market capitalization.

中國石油在上海證券交易所首日上市令人震驚的表現(xiàn)再次顯示了中國牛市的力量，今年以來中國股市已經(jīng)上漲了一倍多。中國石油A股在首個交易日就上漲了一倍多，此前它在中國大陸共籌得89億美元。按一些標準來衡量，中國石油的估值超過了1萬億美元，使它成為全球市值最大的公司。中國石油還分別在香港及紐約證交所上市交易。

Yet the soaring valuations put on PetroChina and other Chinese-listed companies seem to say more about the problems and idiosyncrasies of China's market than the performance of the companies themselves.

不過，中國石油及其他在中國上市的公司估值的飆升似乎更多體現(xiàn)的是中國股市的問題和特征，而非上市公司本身的表現(xiàn)。

In fact, it is very difficult to determine the real value of Chinese government-controlled companies like PetroChina or Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., a state-controlled lender that is the largest financial institution by some measures of market capitalization. They have complicated corporate structures that keep most of their shares locked up in government hands, with the few that are publicly traded spread across different markets. The scarcity can drive up prices. And the problem is compounded by China's capital controls, which can cause domestic prices to differ greatly from those on other markets.

事實上，很難對像中國石油和中國工商銀行(Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd.)這種由中國政府控股的公司進行準確的估值。這些企業(yè)擁有復雜的公司架構(gòu)，它們大部分的股份控制在政府手中，少數(shù)公開交易的股份散落在不同的市場中。這種股份的稀缺性也會推高股價。中國對資本的控制使這個問題更加突出，因為這種做法導致中國上市公司的股價在國內(nèi)市場與其他市場之間產(chǎn)生了巨大差距。按某些標準計算，中國工商銀行是全球市值最大的金融機構(gòu)。

PetroChina, for example, sold a mere 2.2% of its share capital to domestic investors in its Shanghai initial public offering. When those shares made their debut on the exchange yesterday, their price rocketed to a close of 43.96 yuan (US$5.90) each, from the IPO price of 16.70 yuan.

以中國石油為例，該公司在上海的首次公開募股(IPO)僅向國內(nèi)投資者出售了2.2%的股份。在周一首個交易日中，中國石油A股股價開盤大幅走高，最終收于每股人民幣43.96元（約合5.90美元），其IPO價格為16.70元。

Applying that price to all of PetroChina's outstanding shares would give the company a market capitalization of around $1.08 trillion, twice that of industry giant Exxon Mobil Corp., the company that, at least before yesterday, had the highest market value in the world, at around $488 billion. But if you apply the price of PetroChina's Hong Kong-listed shares -- HK$18 (US$2.32) each, as of yesterday's close -- to all PetroChina's outstanding shares, then the company is valued at closer to $424 billion. The valuation of PetroChina's American depositary shares is close to the Hong Kong shares. Yet about 86% of PetroChina's shares are held by its state-owned parent and don't trade on any exchange, and it is hard to know what price they would fetch if all of them were actually to come to market.

如果中國石油全部已發(fā)行股都按這一價格計算，那么它的市值將達到1.08萬億美元，幾乎是行業(yè)巨頭埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil Corp.)的兩倍。至少在上個交易日，埃克森美孚仍以4,880億美元的市值坐在全球市值最大公司的寶座上。如果中國石油全部已發(fā)行股用H股價格（周一收于18港元）計算，它的市值接近4,240億美元。中國石油的美國存托股票估值與H股接近。然而，中國石油大約86%股份仍在其國有母公司的手中，且不公開交易。一旦有一天真的全部公開交易，也很難預知它們的定價。

'This does not mean that PetroChina is bigger than Exxon Mobil,' says Zhou Chunsheng, a professor of finance at Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business in Beijing. 'We cannot compare them based on stock prices, because their stock prices are obtained from different markets.' By law, Chinese investors can't invest significantly outside of China, and foreign investors are allowed to invest only tiny amounts in Chinese stocks known as Class A shares. That means prices reflect high demand from local investors with few other investment options.

長江商學院(Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business)金融學教授周春生表示，這并不意味著中國石油比埃克森美孚大。由于兩家公司的股價來自不同的市場，因此不應該用股價來對兩家公司進行簡單比較。根據(jù)中國的法律，中國國內(nèi)投資者對外投資選擇非常有限，而外國投資者也只能對少量A股進行投資。這也就意味著中國股市價格反映的是中國國內(nèi)投資者在投資渠道有限的情況下高漲的投資需求。

Given that uncertainty, another way of valuing the company would be to apply prices only to what investors can actually buy and sell -- the so-called free float. The total value of PetroChina's publicly traded shares is about $72.5 billion. That's still large, but nowhere close to Exxon Mobil.

鑒于這種不確定因素，或許可以采用另一個方法來對其估值：僅計算投資者能夠買賣的股份──也就是所謂的流通股。中國石油公開交易股份的總價值為725億美元。雖然這個數(shù)字也很大，但不過是埃克森美孚市值的一個零頭。

It is far from clear that PetroChina's business deserves to be valued higher than its U.S. rival. PetroChina's Class A shares are trading around 50 times this year's forecast earnings, compared with 20 times earnings for its Hong Kong-listed stock. That compares with an average of 10 times forecast earnings for big oil companies listed internationally.

中國石油的業(yè)務是否有理由獲得比其美國競爭對手更高的估價也很不好說。中國石油A股基于今年預期收益的市盈率約為50倍，而中國石油H股的市盈率約為20倍。而在國際股市交易的大型石油公司基于預期收益的市盈率平均為10倍。

Exxon Mobil is also significantly bigger than PetroChina. PetroChina produced 1.06 billion barrels of oil equivalent last year, compared with Exxon Mobil's 1.56 billion. Exxon Mobil reported revenue in 2006 of $365.5 billion and earned a net profit of $39.5 billion. PetroChina's 2006 revenue was $91.9 billion and net profit was $19 billion.

埃克森美孚實際規(guī)模也比中國石油要大很多。去年中國石油的產(chǎn)量為10.6億桶油當量，而埃克森美孚為15.6億桶油當量。2006年，埃克森美孚的收入為3,655億美元，凈利潤為395億美元；中國石油2006年收入為919億美元，凈利潤為190億美元。

Of course, the stock market values companies more on what they will produce in the future than what they produced in the past, and PetroChina does seem to have strong growth prospects. The company projects its production will increase at 4% to 6% a year in the future, while most other major oil companies aren't expected to grow at all.

當然，股市更多地是根據(jù)未來的業(yè)績、而不是過去的表現(xiàn)來對公司進行估值的，中國石油的確擁有良好的增長前景。該公司預計今后的年產(chǎn)量增幅將達到4%至6%，而其它多數(shù)石油巨頭預計都難以實現(xiàn)增長。

That is because PetroChina, through acquisitions and better production and exploration techniques, has been able to find enough new oil and gas to continually increase its reserves even as it pumps more. Gordon Kwan, head of China energy for CLSA Asia Pacific Markets, is still bullish on the stock, arguing that PetroChina will benefit more than its overseas rivals from continued high oil prices.

這是因為，即便是在其石油產(chǎn)量不斷增加的情況下，中國石油也能通過收購和提高勘探開發(fā)技術(shù)獲得足夠的新油氣資源，從而保持儲量的繼續(xù)增長。里昂證券亞太區(qū)市場(CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets)中國能源研究部主管關(guān)榮樂(Gordon Kwan)仍看好該股。他認為中國石油從油價持續(xù)上漲中獲得的好處要多于其海外競爭對手。

Whatever its prospects, PetroChina is also benefiting from the overall enthusiasm of Chinese investors, whose unchecked eagerness to put money into stocks has drawn increasing official concern. The seemingly unstoppable rise of China's stock market has drawn worrisome comparisons to the bull markets in Japan and Taiwan in the 1980s, and to the U.S. technology bubble.

不管前景如何，中國投資者目前的高漲熱情無疑讓中國石油受益匪淺，他們源源不斷將資金投入到股市中的做法已經(jīng)讓政府部門越來越感到擔憂。中國股市無休止的上漲讓人們擔心上世紀80年代日本和臺灣牛市以及美國科技股泡沫破裂的一幕可能會重演。

'It's very difficult, almost impossible, to predict bubbles. But what we can say is that based on historical examples, this kind of miracle is never sustainable,' said Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist for China Galaxy Securities in Beijing. 'Whether foreign investors believe in this or not is up to them.'

中國銀河證券有限公司(China Galaxy Securities Co.)首席經(jīng)濟學家左小蕾表示，預測泡沫非常困難，幾乎是不可能的。但我們可以說，根據(jù)歷史情況看，這種奇跡從來都是不可持續(xù)的。海外投資者是否相信這點取決于他們自身。