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The uses and abuses of hype
炒作的使用和濫用
How excitement can help and hinder entrepreneurs.
興奮之情如何幫助和阻礙創業者。
Hype and absurdity go together.
炒作和荒謬是相伴而生的。
As excitement about the next big thing builds, people fall over themselves to get on board.
隨著人們對下一個大事件的興奮之情與日俱增，人們爭先恐后地想加入其中。
A year and a half ago, the metaverse was the future.
一年半以前，元宇宙就是未來。
Companies appointed chief metaverse officers, and futurologists burbled about web 3.0.
各大公司任命了首席元宇宙總監，未來學家則對Web 3.0議論紛紛。
The idea has not gone away.
元宇宙的想法并沒有消失。
Colombia held its first court case in the metaverse last month (imagine a video game called Wii Justice and you get the picture).
上個月，哥倫比亞共和國在元宇宙舉行了第一場法庭訴訟(想象一下一款名為Wii Justice的視頻游戲，你就明白大概是怎么回事了)。
But the excitement has evaporated, at least for now.
但對于元宇宙的興奮感已經煙消云散了，至少目前是這樣。
Microsoft disbanded its industrial metaverse team last month;
上個月，微軟解散了工業元宇宙團隊；
the career prospects of chief metaverse officers are more virtual than even they would like.
首席元宇宙總監的職業前景甚至比他們所希望的還要更加虛擬。
Other technologies have suffered the same reversal.
其他技術也遭遇了同樣的逆轉。
There was a point when it was deeply fashionable to rave about the blockchain, crypto and non-fungible tokens.
曾幾何時，對區塊鏈、加密貨幣和非同質化代幣的熱烈討論是非常時尚的。
Now the attention of users, investors and managers is firmly fixed on artificial intelligence (AI).
現在，用戶、投資者和管理者的注意力都牢牢鎖定在人工智能上。
Since ChatGPT, an AI chatbot, was made available to the public at the end of November, it has generated another wave of hype.
自從人工智能聊天機器人ChatGPT于11月底向公眾開放以來，它又引發了一波炒作。
Over 100m people have asked it to rewrite IKEA furniture instructions in iambic pentameter or something equally vital;
超過1億人讓ChatGPT用五步抑揚格或其他同樣莊重的語體重寫宜家的家具說明書；
venture-capital funds are pouring money into AI startups;
風險投資基金向人工智能初創公司投入大量資金；
established firms are rushing to explain how they will use the technology to do everything from customer service to coding.
各大老牌公司也爭先恐后地說明他們將如何使用這項技術來做從客戶服務到編寫代碼的各種事情。
Hype need not end in disappointment.
炒作不一定要以失望告終。
Some technologies are less speculative than others; the metaverse is still largely notional, for example, whereas AI is an established field.
一些技術的投機性比其他技術要小，例如，元宇宙在很大程度上仍然是概念性的，而人工智能則是一個成熟的領域。
Even when bubbles burst, they can leave world-changing companies behind.
即使泡沫破裂，這些技術也能把改變世界的公司拋在身后。
The hype cycle, popularised by Gartner, a consultancy, is real.
但炒作周期（技術成熟度曲線）是真實存在的，這一概念因咨詢公司高德納而為人所熟知。
In essence, it describes a period of uncontrolled enthusiasm for a new idea followed by a backlash.
從本質上講，它描述人們在一段時期內對新想法有不受控制的熱情，然后會出現強烈反對。
That makes hype bittersweet for entrepreneurs.
這使得炒作對創業者來說是苦樂參半的。
Excitement can help unlock funding and attract users.
興奮之情可以幫助釋放資金，吸引用戶。
Some think of hype as a public good, vital in enabling new technologies to get going.
一些人認為炒作對公眾有益，對于推動新技術的發展至關重要。
But it can also lead to problems.
但炒作也可能導致問題。
The question is how to manage hype for the best.
問題是如何讓炒作發揮最佳作用。
An obvious temptation for entrepreneurs is to take advantage of the hype by making wild—even deceitful—promises.
對創業者來說，一個明顯的誘惑是利用炒作，做出不切實際的，甚至是欺騙性的承諾。
A paper from 2021 by Paul Momtaz of UCLA Anderson School of Management looked at the once-faddish field of initial coin offerings (ICOs), in which new cryptocurrencies are issued directly to the public.
加州大學洛杉磯分校安德森管理學院的保羅·蒙塔茲在2021年的一篇論文中研究了風靡一時的首次代幣發售，即新的加密貨幣直接向公眾發行。
Mr Momtaz found that not only did issuers systematically overplay their tokens’ prospects but that investors fell for it.
蒙塔茲發現，不僅發行者系統性地夸大了代幣的前景，而且投資者也上當了。
Exaggerated claims raised more money in less time than accurate ones.
與準確的說法相比，夸張的說法在更短的時間內籌集了更多的資金。
ICOs are far less hyped these days, but the opportunity to trick investors apparently remains:
如今，首次代幣發售的炒作要少得多，但欺騙投資者的機會顯然仍然存在：
over 100 new cryptocurrencies have been created that have ChatGPT in their name.
超過100種新的加密貨幣被創造出來，這些貨幣的名字中都有ChatGPT。
Wilful exaggeration might be a perfectly logical strategy if entrepreneurs are raising money once.
如果創業者只籌集一次資金，刻意夸大可能是一種完全合乎邏輯的策略。
But if they want to build a business, tap capital in repeated funding rounds or maintain a close relationship with investors and users, hype might become a liability.
但如果他們想要建立一家企業、在多輪融資中籌集資金，或者與投資者和用戶保持密切關系，那么炒作可能會帶來麻煩。
Some dangers are obvious: disappointment and damaged credibility if things do not turn out as well as promised.
一些危險是顯而易見的：如果事情沒有像承諾的那樣發展，就會帶來失望，讓信譽受損。
Other dangers are more subtle: being too associated with a specific technology can reduce the room that startups have to pivot to a new product or business model.
其他危險則更為隱蔽：與某項特定技術的聯系過于緊密，可能會壓縮初創企業轉向新產品或新商業模式的空間。
So hype calls for care.
因此，炒作需要謹慎。
A recent paper by Danielle Logue of UNSW Sydney and Matthew Grimes of Judge Business School looked at the different paths taken by a number of social-investment stockmarkets that were set up in 2013 as the buzz over impact investing grew.
新南威爾士大學悉尼分校的丹妮爾·洛格和賈奇商學院的馬修·格里姆斯最近發表了一篇論文，研究了隨著影響力投資熱潮的增長，2013年成立的一些社會投資股票市場走上的不同道路。
The authors contrast the glitzier approach of an exchange in London, which attracted high-profile endorsements, promised a financial revolution and subsequently collapsed, with its more successful Canadian peer, which has relied more on expert advice and incrementalism.
論文作者將倫敦一家交易所更為耀眼的做法與另一家更為成功的加拿大交易所進行了對比，前者吸引了高調的背書，承諾要進行一場金融革命，然后倒閉了，而后者則更依賴專家建議和漸進主義。
The pros and cons of hype have also been apparent in the short public life of ChatGPT.
在ChatGPT短暫的公共生命中，炒作的利弊也很明顯。
Hype helped make it the fastest-growing consumer technology in history.
炒作幫助它成為史上增長最快的消費技術。
But the flaws in the technology now attract as much attention.
但這項技術中的缺陷現在也引起了同樣多的關注。
Microsoft, which has integrated a souped-up version of the chatbot into its Bing search engine, has restricted access to the new version and set limits on how many questions users can ask it in a row (an idea well worth adopting in all meetings).
微軟將增強版聊天機器人集成到必應搜索引擎中，并對新版必應的訪問進行了限制，限定用戶向聊天機器人連續提問的問題數量(這一想法非常值得在所有會議上采納)。
As Mr Grimes points out, entrepreneurs who are pushing entirely new products are expected to distort reality without overinflating expectations.
正如格里姆斯所指出的，推介全新產品的創業者可以扭曲現實，但前提是不過度夸大預期。
How they handle hype can help determine whether they can pull off this difficult balancing act.
他們如何處理炒作，有助于決定他們能否完成這一艱難的平衡動作。
