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In theory, excluding Russian oil and gas from sanctions should enable the trading houses to continue their day-to-day operations.
理論上講，將俄羅斯石油和天然氣排除在制裁之外，應該能讓這些貿易公司繼續日常的運營。
In practice, it does not because energy trading is as much about the flow of money as of molecules.
而在實踐中，并不是這樣的，因為能源交易既是分子的流動，也是金錢的流動。
Cargoes are financed by banks.
貨款由銀行提供。
They require letters of credit guaranteeing payment.
銀行要求提供信用證書作為付款保證。
They involve frequent messaging between banks working for the buyers and sellers.
這其中涉及為買賣雙方服務的銀行之間頻繁的信息傳遞。
Until March 1st, when names were released of the seven Russian lenders potentially blocked from the SWIFT interbank-communications system, many energy-related transactions in Russia were halted, traders said, owing to the counterparty risk.
交易商表示，直到3月1日，7家可能被SWIFT銀行間通信系統屏蔽的俄羅斯銀行的名字公布，俄羅斯的許多能源相關交易都因交易對手風險而暫停。
Moreover, fears surfaced that as Russia's aggression on Ukraine escalates, sanctions will be strengthened.
此外，人們擔心，隨著俄羅斯對烏克蘭的侵略升級，制裁將會加強。
“The tit has to be reasonably in line with the tat,” says Jean-Francois Lambert, a commodities consultant.
“針鋒需合理相對，”大宗商品咨詢師讓-弗朗索瓦·蘭伯特如是說。
The problem is exacerbated by the length of time cargoes of oil and LNG spend at sea.
石油和液化天然氣在海上停留的時間越長，問題就越嚴重。
By the time they reach port, sanctions on Russian energy may be in place.
當它們抵達港口時，對俄羅斯能源的制裁可能已經生效。
“The biggest grey area is that no one knows what comes next,” says Daniel Martin, who specialises in shipping rules at HFW, a law firm.
“最大的不確定是沒有人知道接下來會發生什么，”在HFW律師事務所專門研究航運規則的丹尼爾·馬丁說。
Logistical chaos compounds the uncertainty.
后勤的混亂加劇了這種不確定性。
Oil-tanker rates on the Black Sea adjacent to Russia and Ukraine have surged as fighting has intensified.
隨著戰事升級，與俄羅斯和烏克蘭相鄰的黑海的油輪運價飆升。
As well as business risks, the trading firms face reputational ones.
除了商業風險，貿易公司還面臨著聲譽風險。
This is exacerbated by long-standing links with firms and individuals at the heart of the regime.
與處于政權核心的公司及個人的長期聯系加劇了這種情況。
In “The World for Sale”, a recent book, the authors argue that the merchants have probably been more engaged with Mr Putin's autocracy than anyone in the world of international business.
在最近出版的一本書《待售的世界》中，作者們認為，商人可能比國際商界的任何人都更多地參與到了普京的獨裁統治中。
Despite a stand-off between Russia and the West, they made vast loans to Rosneft in exchange for oil-supply deals.
盡管俄羅斯與西方正進行對峙，他們還是向Rosneft提供了巨額貸款，以換取石油供應交易。
Two years after Russia seized Crimea in 2014, Glencore co-invested $11bn to buy part of the Russian government's stake in Rosneft (it has since sold almost all of it).
在俄羅斯于2014年占領克里米亞兩年之后，Glencore聯合投資110億美元購買了俄羅斯政府在Rosneft的部分股份（后來該公司幾乎將這些股份全部出售）。
After Trafigura and Vitol invested in Vostok, they received supply deals from Rosneft.
Trafigura和Vitol在投資了Vostok之后，獲得了Rosneft的供應協議。
Mark Rossano, CEO of C6 Capital Holdings, a consultancy, believes that both the oligarchs and the traders were caught out by the economic reprisals that the war has unleashed.
咨詢公司C6 Capital Holdings的首席執行官馬克·羅薩諾認為，無論是政治寡頭還是交易商，都在戰爭引發的經濟報復中陷入困境。
They will survive.
他們會挺過去的。
Even with business in Russia in free fall, crisis breeds opportunity.
雖然在俄羅斯的商業處于自由落體式下跌之中，但危機也孕育著機遇。
As Western countries such as America release strategic reserves of crude to stop the price of oil soaring, they are queuing up for cargoes.
當美國等西方國家為阻止油價飆升而釋放戰略原油儲備時，他們正在排隊購買石油。
If Western sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil are lifted so that it can offset a potential loss of Russian crude, they have the contacts to move the stuff.
如果西方解除對伊朗石油的出售制裁，以抵消可能損失的俄羅斯原油，他們也有社會關系來轉移這些東西。
But these are dangerous times.
但現在是危險時期。
The West's reaction to Mr Putin's war is visceral.
西方對普京的戰爭的反應是發自肺腑的。
It is one thing to be considered a non-aligned merchant providing the world with what it needs.
被當作是為世界提供所需的不結盟商人是一回事。
It is another to be seen as a mercenary.
被視為雇傭兵則是另外一回事。
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