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Schumpeter -- A gamble too far
熊彼特——一場太過冒險的賭博
Europe's commodities traders have made a mistake by dealing with Vladimir Putin's regime
歐洲大宗商品交易商犯了一個錯誤：與弗拉基米爾·普京的政權打交道
In Russia's frozen north is a megaproject that has long been seen as an answer to President Vladimir Putin's prayers.
在俄羅斯寒冷的北方，有一個大型項目長期以來一直被視為對總統弗拉基米爾·普京的擁簇者的回應。
By the mid-2020s the Vostok oilfield is expected to supply about 15% of Russia's crude exports.
到2020年代中期，Vostok油田預計將供應俄羅斯約15%的原油出口。
By that time Rosneft, the Russian oil giant leading the effort, plans to ship Vostok oil via the Northern Sea Route, a shortcut through the Arctic to Asia.
到那時，領導這項工程的俄羅斯石油巨頭Rosneft計劃通過北海航線運送Vostok的石油，北海航線是一條穿過北極通往亞洲的捷徑。
The route will enable Russia to bypass the West geopolitically as well as geographically, allowing oil to travel along waters beyond the control of the American navy and out of reach of Western sanctions.
這條路線能夠使俄羅斯在地緣政治方面和地理上繞過西方，使石油可以沿著美國海軍控制范圍之外的水域運輸，也不受西方制裁的影響。
Besides Rosneft, its backers include two mostly European oil and gas traders, Trafigura and Vitol.
除了Rosneft，其支持者主要還包括兩家來自歐洲的石油和天然氣交易商Trafigura和Vitol。
For years they have competed fiercely to be among the biggest buyers of Russian crude.
多年來，它們一直競爭激烈，以求成為俄羅斯原油的最大買家之一。
These firms are part of a group of commodities traders, including Glencore and Gunvor, that often thrive amid geopolitical turmoil.
這些公司隸屬于一些大宗商品交易商，其中包括Glencore和Gunvor，這些交易商經常在地緣政治動蕩中蓬勃發展。
They are clear-eyed realists who in the past have struck deals with autocrats to gain access to cheap raw materials.
他們是目光敏銳的現實主義者，過去曾與獨裁者達成協議以獲得廉價的原材料。
In recent years some have doubled down on Russia, doing business with the figures who surround Mr Putin, such as Rosneft's boss, Igor Sechin, and winning big oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) contracts (piped gas is the domain of Gazprom, a state monopoly).
近年來，一些交易商對俄羅斯加倍下注，與普京身邊的人物做生意，比如Rosneft的老板伊戈爾·謝欽，并贏得了石油和液化天然氣的大合同(管道天然氣是國營壟斷企業Gazprom的地盤)。
The arrangement served both sides well.
這種安排對雙方都有好處。
The traders invested in Russia and secured more supply from the world's third-biggest oil-producing country and biggest natural-gas exporter.
這些交易商在俄羅斯投資，并從這個世界第三大產油國和最大的天然氣出口國那里獲得更多供應。
Higher energy prices bolstered Russia's hard-currency reserves.
能源價格上漲增強了俄羅斯的硬通貨儲備。
But if they believed Mr Putin's goal was a modern economy that he would not jeopardise by invading Ukraine, they were wrong.
但是，如果他們相信普京的目標是建立一個不受入侵烏克蘭危及的現代化經濟，那他們就錯了。
In fact, oil revenues have financed an ever more autocratic and belligerent regime.
事實上，石油收益資助了一個越來越專制和好戰的政權。
After the West moved to strengthen penalties on Russia's financial system on February 26th, they faced the consequences of their bet.
在2月26日西方采取行動加強對俄羅斯金融體系的制裁后，他們面臨著他們所下賭注的后果。
As one executive put it two days later, everything in the Russian oil business was "frozen": banks, ports, ships and suppliers.
正如兩天后一位高管所說，俄羅斯石油行業的一切都被“凍結”了：銀行、港口、船舶和供應商。
Auctions of Russian crude found no buyers.
俄羅斯原油拍賣遇冷。
Prices of oil soared on global markets but so did the discounts on Russian Urals crude relative to international benchmarks.
全球市場上的油價飆升，不過俄羅斯Urals原油相對于國際基準價格的折扣也大幅上升。
Amid fear of sanctions, Russian cargoes became kryptonite.
由于擔心受到制裁，俄羅斯的貨物成了克星。
Some traders initially said the paralysis would be short-lived.
一些交易商最初表示，這種癱瘓是暫時的。
After all, oil and gas producers were spared sanctions in order to keep Russian energy flowing to the West.
畢竟，為了讓俄羅斯的能源繼續流向西方，石油和天然氣生產商得以免于制裁。
One executive described the biggest risk as "overzealous bank compliance officers" causing more damage to Russia's oil market than the architects of sanctions intended.
一位高管稱，最大的風險是“過分盡職的銀行合規官員”對俄羅斯石油市場造成的損害比制裁措施的制定者想要造成的損害更大。
Yet the traders may have been in denial.
交易商們可能仍拒絕接受這一現實。
The speed with which two European supermajors, BP and Shell, pledged to dump their Russian assets suggested that political and social pressure to withdraw from Russia was mounting in the wake of the invasion.
英國石油和殼牌這兩家歐洲石油巨頭承諾出售其俄羅斯資產的速度之快表明，隨著入侵開始，要求交易商們撤出俄羅斯的政治和社會壓力正在增加。
On March 1st Glencore said it was reassessing its equity stakes in EN+, an Anglo-Russian aluminium producer, and Rosneft.
3月1日，Glencore表示，它正在重新評估其在EN+（一家英俄合營的鋁生產商）和Rosneft的股權。
A day later Trafigura said it was reviewing its investment in Vostok Oil as it unconditionally condemned the war.
一天后，Trafigura表示，由于其無條件地譴責這場戰爭，它正在評估其對Vostok石油的投資。
Usually the trading houses thrive in times of conflict by keeping their heads down and capitalising on volatility.
通常情況下，在沖突時期，貿易公司會保持低調，并利用市場波動獲利。
Not this time.
這一次不行了。
Russia's war on Ukraine suggests their gamble on Mr Putin may have been a throw of the dice too far.
俄羅斯對烏克蘭的戰爭表明，他們押在普京身上的賭注可能是孤注一擲。
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