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Finance & economics
財經板塊
Climate risk
氣候風險
Could climate change trigger a financial crisis?
氣候變化會否觸發金融危機？
IN RECENT YEARS regulators have begun warning about the threat that climate change poses to the stability of the financial system.
近年來，監管機構已經開始就氣候變化對金融體系的穩定性構成的威脅發出警告。
Following its strategy review in July, the European Central Bank (or ECB) will assemble a “climate change action plan”.
繼7月份的戰略評估之后，歐洲央行(ECB)將制定一項“氣候變化行動計劃”。
Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of England, warned of financial risks from climate change as long ago as 2015.
英國央行(Bank of England)前行長馬克·卡尼(Mark Carney)早在2015年就警告過氣候變化帶來的金融風險。
In America the Commodity Futures Trading Commission last year published a 200-page report beginning “Climate change poses a major risk to the stability of the US financial system.”
去年，美國商品期貨交易委員會(CFTC)發布了一份200頁的報告，其開頭是“氣候變化對美國金融體系的穩定性構成重大風險”。
But progressive Democratic politicians are calling on President Joe Biden not to reappoint Jerome Powell as the chairman of the Federal Reserve, partly because they think he has done too little to eliminate climate risk.
但先進的民主黨政客們呼吁喬·拜登總統不要再次任命杰羅姆·鮑威爾為美聯儲主席，部分原因是他們認為鮑威爾在消除氣候風險方面做得遠遠不夠。
Just how damaging does climate risk stand to be, though?
然而，氣候風險到底有多大的破壞性呢?
Early stress tests by central banks and disclosures of companies are starting to shed light on the question.
各國央行進行的早期壓力測試和企業披露的信息讓這個問題初現端倪。
For the most part, the evidence that it could bring down the financial system is underwhelming.
一般來講，它在拖垮金融體系方面并沒有那么大的威力。
But a lot hangs on whether governments set out a clear path for reducing emissions, such as through carbon taxes and energy-efficiency standards, giving banks enough time to prepare.
但很多問題取決于政府是否制定了明確的減排路徑，比如實施碳稅和能源效率標準，給銀行足夠的時間去做好準備。
Climate change can affect the financial system in three ways.
氣候變化可以從三個方面影響金融體系。
The first is through what regulators describe as “transition risks”.
第一個是通過監管機構所謂的“轉型風險”。
These are most likely to arise if governments pursue tougher climate policies.
如果政府采取更嚴厲的氣候政策，就最有可能出現這些問題。
If they do, the economy restructures: capital moves away from dirty sectors and towards cleaner ones.
若真如此，經濟就會重組：資本會從污染嚴重的行業轉移到清潔行業。
Companies in polluting industries may default on loans or bonds; their share prices may collapse.
污染行業的公司可能會拖欠貸款或債券；它們的股價可能會暴跌。
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