評論
打印
Inflation expectations
通脹預期
A different kind of fluke
另一種錨
Just how anchored are America's inflation expectations
美國的通脹預期有多穩(wěn)固
Since democrats proposed a $1.9trn fiscal stimulus in January, hawks have warned that America's economy might overheat. With cheques for $1,400 now landing in bank accounts, President Joe Biden reportedly considering spending another $3trn on infrastructure and the Federal Reserve showing no sign of putting the brakes on the rebound from the pandemic, the predictions of impending doom are getting louder. The latest was delivered by Larry Summers, a former treasury secretary, on March 20th. Mr Summers sees it as more likely than not that the economy will suffer either from an inflation surge or from the crushing effects of higher interest rates. America, he says, has the least responsible economic policy in 40 years.
自民主黨1月份提出1.9萬億美元的財政刺激方案以來，鷹派就警告美國經(jīng)濟可能過熱?，F(xiàn)在每人1400美元的支票陸續(xù)到賬，據(jù)稱總統(tǒng)拜登正在考慮再推出三萬億美元的基建計劃，而美聯(lián)儲也沒有釋放出要對疫情后的經(jīng)濟反彈踩剎車的信號，預測末日即將降臨的聲音越來越響亮。最近發(fā)聲的是前財政部長拉里薩默斯，他在3月20日預測經(jīng)濟有過半概率要承受通脹飆升，或利率上升帶來的破壞效應。他說，美國現(xiàn)在施行的是40年來最不負責任的經(jīng)濟政策。
The worst-case scenario painted by inflation hawks can be broken into stages. First, inflation will soon rise mechanically as numbers from the spring of 2020, when the economy and commodity prices slumped, fall out of comparisons with a year earlier. On that everyone agrees.
通脹鷹派所描繪的最壞情況可以分為幾個階段。首先，通脹自然很快就會上升，因為2020年春季經(jīng)濟下滑、大宗商品價格暴跌，導致經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)同比大幅下降。對于這一點各方并無異議。
The next phase is a second wave of inflation as spending by newly vaccinated-consumers rebounds from the pandemic faster than production can keep up. Even stimulus advocates typically admit that overheating is a risk, and it would be more likely should more deficit spending pass. Mr Biden may unveil the spending side of his infrastructure bill alongside his preliminary annual budget proposals for government departments, which are due next week. Whereas some of any Biden infrastructure bill may be paid for by raising taxes, it seems unlikely that Congress would raise $3trn this way, rather than relying on at least some extra borrowing.
第二階段，接種了疫苗的消費者的支出在疫情后迅速反彈，而生產(chǎn)無法跟上，就會出現(xiàn)第二波通脹。就連刺激措施的擁護者一般也都承認過熱是一種風險，而如果國會通過更多赤字支出提案，過熱的幾率就更大。拜登將于下周宣布政府部門的初步財年預算案，屆時可能會公布他的基建刺激提案的支出安排。盡管這項基建提案中的一部分資金可能會通過提高稅收來籌措，但國會似乎不太可能完全以這種方式籌集全部三萬億美元，而至少會依靠一些額外借債。
It is the last stage of the doomsday timeline that is most controversial, in which temporary inflation turns permanent as the public's inflation expectations rise and become self-fulfilling. Workers, anticipating a higher cost of living, demand higher pay; forward-thinking firms raise prices. The result would be a return to the 5% plus inflation of the late 1960s, or perhaps even the 10%-plus rates of the 1970s.
最具爭議的是末日時間表的第三階段:隨著公眾的通脹預期上升并開始自我應驗，暫時的通脹將成為長期現(xiàn)象。預期生活成本升高的工人將要求加工資；有前瞻的公司會提高產(chǎn)品價格。結(jié)果是通脹可能將恢復到上世紀60年代后期5％以上的水平，或者甚至是70年代10％以上的水平。
In recent decades the grip of the Fed on inflation expectations seemed ironclad. Even when in 2019 unemployment plumbed depths not seen since the 1960s, inflation expectations did not stir very much. In theory that makes all inflation surprises temporary. "Having (inflation expectations) anchored at 2% is what gives us the ability to push hard when the economy's really weak," said Jerome Powell, the Fed's chairman, on March 17th.
近幾十年來，美聯(lián)儲似乎一直緊緊控制著通脹預期。即使在2019年失業(yè)率下降到60年代以來的最低水平時，通脹預期也沒有太大波動。從理論上講，這使得通脹的所有意外變化都只是暫時的。美聯(lián)儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）3月17日說:“把（通脹預期）錨定在2％，那么到了經(jīng)濟真正疲軟的時候我們才有空間使力?！?/p>
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