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The surplus reserves banks hold in their deposit accounts at the Fed fell from $2.2trn in 2017 to $1.4trn now.
銀行在美聯儲的存款賬戶中持有的盈余準備金從2017年的2.2萬億美元降至現在的1.4萬億美元。
No one knows how much surplus cash banks need to feel comfortable. That depends partly on regulations,
沒人知道銀行需要多少剩余現金才能安心。這部分取決于監管，
which have increased the amount of cash banks must hold as a buffer, but also on business sentiment.
監管提高了銀行必須持有的現金額以作緩沖，但也取決于商業情緒。
Banks' near-death experience in 2008-09 has left them with a strong desire to hold plenty of extra cash.
銀行在2008年至2009年的瀕死經歷，讓他們強烈希望持有大量額外現金。
Economists have attempted to estimate the level at which banks would start to squirm, most coming up with estimates of $1.2trn-1.5trn.
經濟學家試圖估計銀行將開始動蕩的程度，多數人估計為1.2萬億至1.5萬億美元。
Usually banks have at least this much on hand. But they may not have had on September 16th, for quite benign reasons.
通常銀行手頭至少有這么多錢。但由于一些良性原因，他們可能在9月16日這一天手頭沒有多錢。
That was the deadline for quarterly corporatetax payments, meaning companies asked banks for more cash than usual.
這一天是公司每季度繳納公司稅的最后期限，這意味著公司向銀行索要的現金比平時多。
The Treasury had issued $77bn-worth of bills the previous week. The buyers, mostly banks, also had to pay on September 16th.
上一周，美國財政部發行了價值770億美元的國債。買家，多為銀行，也需要在9月16日付款。
The Fed expected these events, said Jerome Powell, its chairman, but not such an extreme reaction.
美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾表示，美聯儲預料到了這些事件，但沒想到會有如此極端的反應。
As banks' cash piles shrank, they grew reluctant to lend to companies and other counterparties.
隨著銀行現金儲備萎縮，他們越來越不愿意貸款給公司和其他交易對手。
The repo rate spiked. Some banks stepped in, lending to companies at elevated rates.
回購利率飆升。一些銀行介入，以高利率貸款給企業。
But then those banks tried to borrow from other banks in the federal funds market, pushing up the rate. This prompted the Fed to intervene.
但后來這些銀行試圖從聯邦基金市場的其他銀行借款，從而推高了利率。這促使美聯儲介入。
Cash would have become scarce sooner or later, says Bill English of Yale University.
耶魯大學的比爾·英格利希表示，現金遲早會變得稀缺。
In a growing economy—especially one with a rising government deficit—the demand for bank cash increases over time.
在一個不斷增長的經濟體中—特別是在一個政府赤字不斷增加的經濟體中—對銀行現金的需求會隨著時間的推移而增加。
The Fed now faces a choice. It could return to conducting frequent open market operations to pin down interest rates, as before the crisis.
現在美聯儲面臨著一個選擇。它可能會像危機前一樣，恢復頻繁的公開市場操作，以穩定利率。
Or it could keep the current system and avert future cash shortages
或者，它可以保持當前的體系，避免未來的現金短缺
by expanding its balance-sheet enough to keep the banking system permanently saturated with liquidity, even as demand for cash grows.
方式是通過充分擴張其資產負債表以使銀行系統永遠保持流動性飽和，即使對現金的需求不斷增長。
On September 18th Mr Powell suggested that the Fed would opt for the latter,
9月18日，鮑威爾暗示美聯儲將選擇后者，
saying it wanted reserves to be ample enough to avoid operations of the sort carried out in recent days.
并稱美聯儲希望外匯儲備足夠充足，以避免最近幾天實施的那種操作。
He also announced technical tweaks that will mean banks are compensated a little less handsomely for cash deposited at the Fed,
他也宣布了一些技術上的調整，這意味著銀行存入美聯儲的現金獲得的補償少了一些，
which might encourage them to lend a little more in the repo market instead.
這或許能夠鼓勵他們轉而在回購市場多放貸。
It is unclear how quickly balance-sheet expansion might be resumed. This week's events suggest it may be soon.
目前尚不清楚資產負債表的擴張會以多快的速度恢復。本周的事件表明或許很快。
As Mr Powell said after the Fed's meeting, "I think we'll learn quite a lot in the next six weeks."
正如鮑威爾在美聯儲會議后所說的，“我想在接下來的六周我們會學到很多。”
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