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A third, more anarchic way to transfer resources from young to old is a speculative bubble.
第三種、同時也是更為無序地將資源從年輕人轉移到老年人的方式是投機泡沫。
In a bubble, people pay over the odds for an asset, such as a house, in the belief that subsequent investors will pay a higher price still.
泡沫中，帶著后來的投資者會開出更高的價格的信念，人們為某種資產，如房屋，支付超出其賠率的錢。
The overpayment amounts to a contribution to a Ponzi scheme, redeemed not by the earnings of the underlying asset, but by overpayments from later investors.
這種超額支付相當于對龐氏騙局的出資，它不是由標的資產的收益來償付的，而是由來自后來的投資者的超額支付來償付的。
If each generation is collectively richer than the last, then the asset's price can keep rising even if each buyer sinks only the same percentage of their (rising) income into it.
如果每一代人總體上都比上一代人更為富有，那么，就算是每一位買家投入其中的只是其（不斷上漲的）的收入的相同百分比，資產的價格也能保持上漲。
All these mechanisms have side-effects.
所有這些機制都有副作用。
Government debt can crowd out productive investment.
政府債務可能擠出生產性投資。
Bubbles can do the same.
泡沫可能作出同樣的事情。
But in an economy suffering from dynamic inefficiency, this crowding out is a good thing.
但是，在飽受動態無效率之苦的經濟體中，這種擠出是一件好事。
Such an economy has accumulated too much capital.
這樣的經濟體積累了太多的資本。
It requires heavy investment to keep this large stock of machinery, equipment, buildings and infrastructure growing in line with the economy.
它需要大筆的投資，以保持大量的機器、設備、建筑和基礎設施與經濟同步增長。
The young are tempted to add yet more capital in an effort to transfer resources to their future, older selves.
誘惑之下，年輕人增加了更多的資本，視圖將資源轉移給未來的、年老的自己。
Yet because the returns are so low, it is more efficient for them to transfer resources directly to today's elderly (by contributing to social security, buying government bonds or overpaying for the old people's assets), on the understanding that tomorrow's young will do the same for them.
然而，由于回報太低，對他們來說，基于明天的年輕一代會為他們做同樣的事的認識，（通過繳納社會保險，購買政府債券或是對老年人的資產多付錢等方式）把資源直接轉移給今天的老年人效率更高。
Under certain conditions, then, Ponzi principles are efficient not maleficent.
因而，在特定條件下，龐氏原理是有效的，而不是有害的。
But are those conditions ever found in the real world?
但是，這些條件曾在現實世界中被發現過嗎？
One way to look for them is to compare interest rates (which represent the return on capital) and GDP growth rates (which reflect both population growth and increases in income per person).
尋找它們的一種辦法是比較（代表資本回報的利率）和（反映人口與人均收入增長的）GDP增長率。
An alternative, stiffer test (which works well under certain assumptions) is to compare investment and profits.
一種（在一定的假設下運轉良好的）具有替代性的和更為嚴格的驗證是比較投資和利潤。
If national investment is greater than profits, a country is ploughing more into its stock of capital than it earns from it.
如果國民投資大于利潤，國家正在將多于從中掙得錢投入到資本存量之中。
It is as if the islanders are replanting all of the fruit they collect from the additional trees they have cultivated (minus whatever fruit they need to compensate themselves for their labour) plus a few more.
這就好比島民們正在把比他們能從自己所培育的額外的樹上收集到的全部還要多的果實重新種下去一樣。
The economy's efforts to save and invest for the future are overloading the available vehicles for thrift.
經濟體的為未來儲蓄和投資的嘗試正負載著過多的可以得到的節儉載體。
Economists used to be confident that most economies were on the right side of this test, earning far more in profit than they invested.
之前，經濟學家曾經對大多數經濟體在這種驗證的正確一邊充滿自信，認為經濟體在利潤方面的所得遠遠超過投入。
譯文來源考研英語時事閱讀
