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Economics Brief
經濟學簡論
Overlapping generations: Kicking the can down an endless road
代代疊加："拖"無止境
The final brief in our series on big economic ideas looks at the costs (and benefits) of passing on the bill to the next generation.
我們的重大經濟思想的最后一篇考察的是寅吃卯糧的代價（和好處）。
In the spring of 1899 William Miller persuaded three members of his Brooklyn prayer group to invest their money with him, promising them unearthly returns.
1899年春，威廉·米勒（William Miller）說服了他在布魯克林祈禱小組的三位成員把錢交給他來投資，向他們承諾了異乎尋常的回報。
He would pay a dividend of 10% per week, plus a commission for each new investor they could recruit.
他會每周支付10%的紅利，外加真對他們可能招募來的每一位新投資者的一份傭金。
Soon, William “520%” Miller was drawing throngs of depositors to his door.
不久，威廉·520%·米勒吸引了大批存款人上門。
So “great was the crush”, by one account, his staircase eventually gave way.
據稱，當時人群洶涌，以至于他的樓梯最后都被擠塌了。
Miller attributed his success to “inside information”.
米勒認為，他的成功歸功于“內幕消息”。
But his real method was made famous 20 years later by the man who perfected it, Charles Ponzi.
但是，他真正的方法是在20年后是因為那位使之完美無瑕的人——查爾斯·龐茲（Charles Ponzi）而聞名天下的。
Ponzi schemes like Miller's pay a return to early investors with money raised from later ones.
龐氏騙局（Ponzi schemes）同米勒用從后來者那里籌集到的錢支付早先的投資者的方式如出一轍。
When they run short of new contributions, they collapse.
當缺少新的出資時，它們就崩潰了。
A scheme as generous as Miller's cannot last long.
如米勒般慷慨的騙局無法持久。
But what if the promises were less extravagant and the repayment intervals less tight?
但是，如果承諾少一些夸大，償還間隔不是那么近呢？
What if, for example, a scheme asked investors for money in their younger years in return for a payout in their dotage?
例如，如果騙局在投資者年輕時向他伸手要錢，在年老體衰時報之以償還呢？
Over that time scale, a Ponzi scheme need not limit its recruitment efforts to the people alive when it begins.
在這段時間內，龐氏騙局不需要對在它們開始時活著的人的招募努力加以限制。
It can repay today's contributors with money from future participants not yet born.
它可以用來自尚未出生的未來參與者的錢償還今天的出資者。
And since the next generation is never likely to be the last, the chain could, in principle, continue indefinitely.
而且，由于下一代永遠不可能是最后的一代，從理論上說，這一鏈條可以無限期地繼續下去。
Barring a catastrophe, new marks will be born every day.
除非天災人禍，每一天都會有新生命出生。
This intergenerational logic lies behind the “pay-as-you-go” (PAYG) pensions common in many countries.
這種存在與現收現付養老金（pay-as-you-go 簡稱PAYG）背后的代際邏輯，在許多國家都是很常見的。
People contribute to the scheme during their working lives, and receive a payout in retirement.
人們在自己的工作之年給騙局出資，在退休時拿到償付。
Many people fondly imagine that their contributions are saved or invested on their behalf, until they reach pensionable age.
許多人天真地假設，他們的出資要么是被存了起來，要么是以他們的名義被投了出去，直到他們達到可以領養老金的年紀。
But that is not the case.
但是，情況并非如此。
The contributions of today's workers pay the pensions of today's retirees.
當今工人的出資償付的是當今退休人員的養老金。
The money is transferred between generations, not across time.
錢是在幾代人之間轉來轉去，并沒有跨越時間。
譯文來源考研英語時事閱讀
