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That proposition was put to the test after Paul Volcker became Fed chairman in 1979.
這種主張在保羅·沃克爾于1979年成為美聯儲主席后被付諸驗證。
Mr Volcker was set on getting inflation down.
當時，沃克爾決心要把通脹降下來。
As it turned out, he would need to prove his mettle.
局勢的發展表明，他必需證明自己的魄力。
His tight monetary policies—the federal funds rate reached almost 20% in 1981—contributed to a double-dip recession, which pushed unemployment above 10%.
他的收緊的貨幣政策——聯邦利率在1981年達到了將近20%——創造了一次雙底衰退，把失業率推到了10%以上。
It got the job done; inflation tumbled.
任務完成了；通脹大幅回落。
Since Mr Volcker's time at the Fed, it has rarely exceeded 5%.
自沃克爾的美聯儲時代以來，通脹幾乎沒有超過5%。
To this day, some economists point to the Volcker recessions as proof that inflation expectations are adaptive.
時至今日，有些經濟學家認為，沃克爾衰退是通脹預期是自適應的證明。
The public did not believe inflation would fall just because the Fed said it would.
公眾沒有僅僅因為美聯儲發話就相信通脹會降下來。
America had to suffer high unemployment to bring inflation down.
為把通脹降下來，美國不得不承受了高失業之苦。
Policymakers had to grapple with a short-term Phillips curve after all, as Friedman and Phelps had argued.
正如弗里德曼和菲爾普斯所言，決策者畢竟還得抓住短期菲利普斯曲線不放。
Yet the experience of the 1980s would not be repeated.
然而，上世紀80年代的這段經歷不會再重蹈覆轍了。
In the decades that followed, central banks committed to inflation targets.
在隨后的幾十年間，各國央行對通脹目標作出了承諾。
As they gained credibility, the trade-off between inflation and unemployment weakened.
隨著它們贏得了信譽，通脹和失業之間的那種取舍弱化了。
Economists wrote “New Keynesian” models incorporating rational expectations.
經濟學家們給出了體現理性預期的“新凱恩斯主義”模型。
By the mid-2000s some of these models showed a “divine coincidence” : targeting the best possible path for inflation, after an economic shock, would also result in the best possible path for unemployment.
到本世紀頭十年中期，有些模型展現出了一種“神一般的巧合”：在某次經濟沖擊后，瞄準最可能的通脹路徑也會導致最可能的失業路徑。
Few economists think the divine coincidence holds in practice.
很少有經濟學家認為，這種神一般的巧合在實踐中站得住腳。
New Keynesian models usually struggle to explain reality unless they are tweaked to incorporate, for example, at least some people with adaptive expectations.
通常情況下，新凱恩斯主義模型都是力爭解釋現實，除非是為了至少也要把某些有理性預期的人起碼也納入其中而接受微調。
A cursory examination of the data suggests expectations follow inflation (they sank, for instance, after oil prices fell in late-2014).
對數據的粗率梳理表明，預期緊隨通脹(例如，它們在油價于2014年年末下跌之后一路下滑。)
譯文來源考研英語時事閱讀
