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Mr Phelps began writing groundbreaking models of the labour market in 1966.
1966年，菲爾普斯開始構(gòu)建開創(chuàng)性的勞動力市場模型。
A year later, Friedman gave what became the canonical criticism of the old way of thinking in an address to the American Economics Association.
一年后，弗里德曼在對美國經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)會的一篇演講中提出了成為老式思維之正典批判(canonical criticism)的東西。
In it, he argued that, far from there being a menu of options for policymakers to pick from, one rate of unemployment—a natural rate—would eventually prevail.
他在這篇演講中指出，與其說有一份可供決策者挑選的選項菜單，倒不如說一種失業(yè)比率——自然的比率——最終會勝出。
Suppose, Friedman reasoned, that a central bank prints money in an attempt to push unemployment lower than the natural rate.
弗里德曼分析道，假設(shè)，央行在一次將失業(yè)推得比自然比率還要低的嘗試中印制貨幣。
A larger money supply would lead to more spending.
增大的貨幣供應(yīng)會導(dǎo)致更多的開支。
Firms would respond to increased demand for their products by expanding production and raising prices, say by 5%.
企業(yè)會通過增產(chǎn)和提價——比如說5%——的方式來應(yīng)對對其產(chǎn)品的擴(kuò)大了的需求。
This inflation would catch workers by surprise.
這種通脹會讓工人措手不及。
Their wages would be worth less than they bargained for when they had negotiated their contracts.
他們的工資會比當(dāng)初談合同時所爭取的有所貶值。
Labour would, for a while, be artificially cheap, encouraging hiring.
一時間，勞動力會人為地便宜，鼓勵了雇傭行為。
Unemployment would fall below the natural rate.
失業(yè)率會跌到自然比率之下。
The central bank would achieve its goal.
央行也會達(dá)到其目的。
The next time pay was negotiated, however, workers would demand a 5% raise to restore their standard of living.
然而，下一次工資接受談判時，工人會要求加薪5%以恢復(fù)其生活標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。
Neither firm nor worker has gained or lost negotiating power since the last time real wages were set, so the natural rate of unemployment would reassert itself as firms shed staff to pay for the raise.
由于自上一次實際工資被確定下來以來，企業(yè)和工人都沒有增加或失去談判的籌碼。所以，失業(yè)的自然比率會隨著企業(yè)裁員以應(yīng)付加薪而再度自我凸顯。
To get unemployment back down again, the central bank could embark on another round of easing.
為了讓失業(yè)率再次回落，央行可能開啟新一輪寬松。
But workers can be fooled only for so long.
但是，工人只能被愚弄這么長時間了。
They would come to expect 5% inflation, and would insist on commensurately higher wages in advance, rather than playing catch-up with the central bank.
他們會預(yù)期5%的通脹，并且還會堅持事先等量加薪，而不是跟在央行后面亦步亦趨。
Without an inflation surprise, there would be no period of unexpectedly cheap labour.
沒有了通脹驚奇，也就不會再有意料之外的低廉勞動力時期了。
So unemployment would not fall.
于是，失業(yè)率也不會下降了。
譯文來源考研英語時事閱讀
