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Finance and economics: The yuan joins the SDR Maiden voyage
財經：人民幣“入藍”，軟妹幣的“第一次”
Reserve-currency status might make for a weaker yuan.
儲幣地位或令人民幣貶值。
PASSING through the Suez Canal became easier earlier this year, thanks to an expansion completed in August.
由于蘇伊士運河已于八月擴建完畢，從今年早些時候起，渡過運河變得容易了許多。
Now it is about to become a little bit more complicated.
現在它的結構變得更為復雜了。
Transit fees for the canal are denominated in Special Drawing Rights, a basket of currencies used by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as its unit of account.
該運河的過境費是以國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）的特別提款權作為計價的——它是以一攬子貨幣作為其記賬單位的。
This week the IMF decided to include the yuan in the basket from next year, joining the dollar, the euro, the pound and the yen.
本周，IMF決定從明年起接納人民幣“入籃”，“籃子”里已有的貨幣包括美元、歐元、英鎊和日元。
If lots of things were priced in SDRs, the IMF's decision would have forced companies around the world to buy yuan-denominated assets as soon as possible, to hedge their exposure.
因為許多事務都是以特別提款權作為定價的，IMF的決定迫使全球許多公司要盡快地購買以人民幣計價的資產，以此來對沖風險。
That would have prompted China's currency to strengthen dramatically.
這將促使人民幣大幅升值。
But few goods or services are priced in SDRs.
但是很少有商品或是服務是以特別提款權作為定價的。
Instead, admission to the currency club is significant mainly for its symbolism: the IMF is lending its imprimatur to the yuan as a reserve currency—a safe, liquid asset in which governments can park their wealth.
相反，加入貨幣俱樂部更多地具有象征意義：IMF正式批準人民幣成為一種儲備貨幣——使其成為一種可令各國政府安心寄放的安全、流動的資產。
Indeed, far from setting off a groundswell of demand for the yuan, the IMF's decision may pave the way for its depreciation.
事實上，IMF的決定可能事與愿違，會令對人民幣高漲的需求降溫，使人民幣貶值。
The reason is that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) will now find itself under more pressure to manage the yuan as central banks in most rich economies do their currencies—by letting market forces determine their value.
原因是中國人民銀行（PBOC）會發現自己將承受更大的壓力來管控人民幣，如同世界上大多數富裕經濟體的央行管控它們的貨幣一樣——由市場來決定貨幣的價值。
In bringing the yuan into the SDR, the IMF had to determine that it is “freely usable”.
人民幣“入藍”，IMF必須確定它是能“自由使用”的。
Before coming to this decision, the IMF asked China to make changes to its currency regime.
在做出決定之前，IMF會要求中國政府改變其現有是匯率機制。
Most importantly, China has now tied the yuan's exchange rate at the start of daily trading to the previous day's close; in the past the starting quote was in effect set at the whim of the PBOC, often creating a big gap with the value at which it last traded.
最重要的是，中國現行的每日匯率其開盤價是與前一交易日的收盤價相掛鉤的。而之前的開盤價事實上是由中國央行任意確定的，往往會與最終交易價產生較大差價。
It was the elimination of this gap that lay behind the yuan's 2% devaluation in August, a move that rattled global markets.
為了消除這一差價，八月時人民幣貶值2%，此舉曾令全球市場驚愕不已。
Though the yuan is still far from being a free-floating currency—the central bank has intervened since August to prop it up—the cost of such intervention is now higher.
然而人民幣離成為自由浮動貨幣為時尚早——自八月以來中國央行開始進行干預支持，目前這種干預成本變得更高了。
The PBOC must spend real money during the trading day to guide the yuan to its desired level.
中國央行必須把錢花在刀刃上，用以指導人民幣的交易價維持在其期許值以內。
Inclusion in the SDR will only deepen the expectations that China will let market forces decide the yuan's exchange rate.
納入特別提款權只會加深中國想讓市場來決定人民幣匯率的期許。
The point of the SDR is to weave disparate currencies together into a single, diversified unit; some have suggested, for example, that commodities be quoted in SDRs to reduce the volatility of pricing them in dollars.
特別提款權將不同的貨幣交織成為一種單一、多元的計價單位；比如說，有人建議將商品引入特別提款權以減少因美元波動而影響其價格。
But if China maintains its de facto peg to the dollar, the result of adding the yuan to the SDR will be to boost the dollar's weight in the basket, defeating the point.
但如果中國要是繼續緊盯美元不放，那么人民幣“入藍”將會令美元幣值暴增，一家獨大，打破“籃子”里原有的平衡。
What would happen if China really did give the market the last word on the yuan?
如果中國真的給了人民幣踏入市場前的臨行忠告，那么將會發生什么呢？
For some time it has been under downward pressure.
人民幣將會有一段時間的下行壓力。
The simplest yardstick is the decline in China's foreign-exchange reserves, from a peak of nearly $4 trillion last year to just over $3.5 trillion now—a reflection, in part, of the PBOC's selling of dollars to support the yuan.
最簡單的衡量標準就是中國的外匯儲備在下降，從去年頂峰時的4萬億美元到如今的勉強3.5萬億美元——這就是反應。某種程度上，中國央行在拋售美元來支撐人民幣。
Were it not for tighter capital controls since the summer, outflows might have been even bigger.
若不是今夏以來更為嚴格的資金管控，恐怕外流的外匯會更多。
And the yuan does look overvalued.
人民幣被高估了。
Despite China's slowing economy, its continued link to the surging dollar has put it near an all-time high in trade-weighted terms, up by more than 13% in the past 18 months.
盡管中國經濟放緩，但人民幣繼續與飆升的美元相掛鉤，使其接近了貿易加權計算的歷史高位，在過去的18個月里，同比增長超過13%。
With the Federal Reserve gearing up to start raising interest rates at the same time as China is loosening its monetary policy, the yuan looks likely to come under more downward pressure, at least against the dollar.
在美聯儲加緊啟動提高利率的同時，中國放松了其貨幣政策，人民幣兌美元可能至少會承受更多的下行壓力。
It would be foolhardy to predict that China will suddenly give the market free rein.
中國會突然給市場以自由發揮的空間可能是魯莽的預測。
That would go against its deep-seated preference for gradual reform.
那將會違背中國進行漸進式深入改革的偏好。
But while basking in the glow of its SDR status, China must also be aware of the responsibility to minimise intervention that comes with it.
但沉浸于特別提款權的榮光中，中國必須意識到對人民幣干預最小化的責任也隨之而來了。
A weaker yuan may well be the result.
其結果可能會出現人民幣貶值。
