評論
打印
Europe Ireland’s budget
歐洲 愛爾蘭的財政預算
Light at the end of the tunnel
一線希望
Ireland’s sixth austerity budget
愛爾蘭的第六次收縮預算
Since mid-2008, successive governments have taken 25 billion euro ($33 billion) out of the Irish economy in tax rises and spending cuts, the equivalent of 16% of economic output in 2011. On December 5th Michael Noonan, the finance minister, removed another 3.5 billion euro when he presented the country’s sixth austerity budget.
從2008年中至今的歷屆政府已經通過增加稅收和裁剪開支，將財政縮減了250億歐元（330億美元），這個數目相當于2011年經濟總產出的16%。在12月5日，財政大臣邁克爾·諾南頒布該國的第六次收縮預算，進一步削減了35億歐元。
This is the latest instalment of an austerity plan that the government hopes will achieve two goals. One is to enable Ireland next year to leave the 67.5 billion euro bail-out programme with the European Union, IMF and European Central Bank (ECB) agreed in 2010 and regain access to market funding. The other is to reduce the budget deficit to below 3% of GDP by 2015. At 8.2% Ireland’s budget deficit is still one of the highest in the EU.
憑借這最新一期的財政收縮計劃，政府旨在達成兩個目標。其一是使愛爾蘭能在明年脫離歐盟，國際貨幣基金組織和歐洲央行在2010年達成的675億歐元經濟救助計劃，并再次入市融資。其二便是在2015年前將預算赤字降低到國內生產總值的3%以下。目前，愛爾蘭8.2%的赤字比率仍然高居歐盟前列。
In his budget measures, Mr Noonan broadened Ireland’s narrow revenue base. He focused on higher-income earners. Wealthier pensioners will feel the pain: the cap on tax relief for pension contributions will be lower and better-off pensioners (those over 70 with incomes over 60,000 euro) are hit by higher social charges. A modest residential-property tax has been introduced against the background of a collapse in house prices. Many new homeowners are in negative equity, with a growing number in arrears on their mortgage payments.
在諾南的預算方案中，他擴大了愛爾蘭狹窄的課稅基礎。他把矛頭對向高收入者。領取高額養老金的人會遭遇沉重打擊：對養老金的稅收減免限額會更低，富裕的養老金領取者（年過70，收入超過60,000歐元）要承擔更高的社會費用。為應對房價崩潰的大背景，一項適度的住宅物業稅應運而生。許多新的房主都陷入了負資產的困境，拖欠抵押貸款的現象越來越頻繁。
The government is relying on economic growth to meet its ambitious budget targets for 2013. It is forecasting 1.5% GDP growth for next year, which seems optimistic given Ireland’s dependence on an export-led recovery to achieve it. That may prove difficult with the euro zone in recession and a weakening British economy. Another concern is the sustainability of Ireland’s public debt, which is expected to hit 118% of GDP this year. Almost a third of it is accounted for by state support for distressed banks. Discussions with the ECB on restructuring the promissory notes that the government issued to cover 30 billion euro in losses, mostly at Anglo Irish Bank, have continued for more than a year without success. The government’s hopes that the new European Stability Mechanism could be used to take over state-owned Irish banks in a debt-equity swap, have also been disappointed.
政府希望借助經濟增長來實現它野心勃勃的2013年預算計劃。據估計愛爾蘭明年國內生產總值的增長達到1.5%，考慮到愛爾蘭依靠出口導向型的經濟復蘇來實現這一目標，形勢一片大好。但蕭條的歐元區以及脆弱的英國經濟還是會給這一目標帶來困難。另一個隱憂是公共債務的持續性，該債務預計會在今年達到國內生產總值的118%。其中接近三分之一用于資助處境窘迫的銀行。與歐洲央行關于重組本票事宜進行的商談已經持續一年有余而無所進展，那些本票是政府為彌補主要由盎格魯-愛爾蘭銀行所造成的300億歐元損失而發行的。政府關于新的歐洲穩定機制通過債權轉股權接管愛爾蘭國有銀行的希望也落空了。
The government’s major achievement in 2012 has been the sharp reduction in bond yields onIreland’s sovereign debt, which reflects its success in meeting all the targets set in the EU/IMF programme. In January Ireland takes over the six-monthly presidency of the EU. Haggling in Brusselsis likely to absorb much of the attention of Irish ministers, leaving less time for pressing national concerns—such as debt relief.
政府在2012年取得的主要成就就是大幅削減了愛爾蘭主權債務的債券收益率，這也反映了它成功地達成了歐盟和國際貨幣基金組織所設立的目標。從一月開始，愛爾蘭接任為期半年的歐盟輪值主席國。在布魯塞爾的唇槍舌戰可能轉移愛爾蘭大臣的大量注意力，這樣留給他們處理國內憂患——比如減輕債務——的時間少之又少。翻譯：袁航
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