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經濟學人:紓困希臘?默克爾成壓垮歐元的最后稻草(下)

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Would she consider the version of Eurobonds suggested by Germany’s advisory council ofeconomic “wise men”? Under this scheme, debts exceeding 60% of GDP would be transferred into a fund with joint liability and paid off by the debtor countries over 20-25 years. Wolfgang Schauble, the finance minister, says this too is thinkable only as part of a “fiscal union”.Mrs Merkel’s spokesman does not reject the idea categorically, but he points to “formidable” obstacles in Germany's constitution and European treaties.

那么,默克爾女士是否會考慮德國“智庫”經濟顧問委員會提出的歐洲債券版本?根據這項計劃,超過國內生產總值60%的債務部分將會轉入一項基金名下,由負債國在20-25年內還清,所有歐元區成員國將對該基金負責。財政部長朔伊布勒(Wolfgang Schauble)說,這也得先作為“財政聯盟”的一部分,才能予以考慮。默克爾女士的發言人就此未作出斷然否認,但他指出德國憲法和歐盟各項條約才是“難以應付”的阻礙。
There is no support for relaxing fiscal targets for Greece or Spain. But Germany’s main opposition parties want growth-boosting measures alongside the fiscal compact.Since the treaty requires a two-thirds majority in both houses of parliament,the government has to negotiate on this. But Mrs Merkel can accept much of what they want, including a capital increase for the European Investment Bank andmore effective use of European structural funds.
放 寬希臘或西班牙的財政目標的提議不得人心。德國的主要反對黨則希望在通過財政契約時,一并通過經濟增長刺激政策。由于條約規定,議案需贏得議會兩院三分之二的支持,政府不得不就此事與反對派斡旋。但是默克爾女士能接受反對黨提出的大部分要求,包括為歐洲投資銀行增資,以及更有效的利用歐盟結構基金。

默克爾談經濟二.jpg

There are two sticking points. The opposition wants a financial-transactions tax, which the government thinks is unworkable unless all EU countries sign up to it (and Britain,for one, will not). But there are other ways to tax the financial sector that might provide the basis for compromise. The opposition also favours the wisemen’s “redemption fund” proposal. But Mr Barthle, who is involved in the negotiations, insists there will be no such fund.

目前尚存的兩個癥結點是: 反對黨希望征收金融交易稅,政府則認為此事行不通,除非所有歐盟成員國簽署贊同(例如,英國就不會同意)。而在財政領域征收稅費的方式并非僅此一種,雙方仍有談判的基礎。反對黨還贊同智庫有關“贖債基金”的提議。但是參與協商的巴斯勒(Barthle)堅稱,“贖債基金”之說純屬空穴來風。
The German government does not accept that austerity is pushing the eurotowards break-up. Yes, deficit cuts and structural reforms inflict short-termpain. But the rewards will come, as Germany’s own experience shows. TheBaltic countries enacted austerity and are growing fast (see Charlemagne).Voters’ revolts in southern Europe show the folly of changing course, not the risk of sticking to it. Mr Hollande told French voters he would reduce the retirement age, notes Mr Barthle. “Germansare not prepared to work until they are 67 to allow others to retire at 60.” Asfor pressure from America, Barack Obama is clearly impatient for relief before November’s election. But he does not care whether recovery can be sustained, Germans say.
德國政府并不接受緊縮措施正將歐元推向瓦解邊緣這一說法。誠然,削減赤字和結構性改革會造成短期劇痛,而從德國自身的經驗來看,劇痛過后必有回報。波羅的海沿岸諸國在實行緊縮政策后,如今經濟增長迅猛(見查理曼專欄)。南歐選民的反抗體現的是改變方針的愚蠢,而非恪守方針的風險。巴斯勒先生指出,奧朗德先生 向法國選民承諾,他會調低退休年齡,“德國人不準備自己工作到67歲,卻容許別人60歲退休。”至于美國方面的壓力,很顯然奧巴馬總統(Barack Obama)急欲在11月的大選前解決此事。但他才不在乎歐洲的復蘇是否能持續,德方表示。
Germany is in denial. The crisis has not yet hit the German economy (though it may be about to), notes Sebastian Dullien of the European Council on Foreign Relations. He doubts if the government “is aware of how bad the situation really is.” Mrs Merkel wants to save the euro but believes peripheral countries can make still more sacrifices. That misperception is dangerous, says Mr Dullien. How dangerous may become clearer after Greece votes. The German line is that Greece must decide whether to default and perhaps exit from the euro. Europe is better prepared now than it was two years ago, says Mr Barthle. There is no legal provision for a country to leave the euro but an exit from the EU might be arranged, he adds. In short, Greece must learn to swim fast.
德國拒絕接受現實。歐洲對外關系理事會成員杜林(Sebastian Dullien)指出,危機雖正步步逼近,但尚未波及德國經濟。他懷疑德國政府是否“意識到實際情況究竟有多糟糕。”默克爾女士雖有拯救歐元之心,卻堅信外圍國家還能做出更多犧牲。杜林先生說,這種誤解十分危險。至于有多危險,希臘大選后才能明了。德國的原則是,希臘必須決定是否要違約,或許考慮退出歐元區。巴斯勒先生說,如今的歐洲比兩年前要準備的更充分。他還補充到,目前還沒有有關成員國退出歐元區的法律規定,但是或有退出歐盟的安排。簡而言之,希臘必須快速學會游泳。

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folly ['fɔli]

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n. 愚蠢,荒唐事 (復)follies: 輕松歌舞劇

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legal ['li:gəl]

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adj. 法律的,合法的,法定的

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n. 壓力,壓強,壓迫
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n. 假設值,默認(值), 不履行責任,缺席 v. 默認

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majority [mə'dʒɔriti]

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scheme [ski:m]

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n. 組織,憲法,體格

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