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經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人:德意志銀行深陷經(jīng)濟(jì)漩渦 總裁們手足無(wú)措(下)

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The bank itself reckons that, were it to apply the new Basel 3 rules in full next year, instead of when legally required to do so by 2019, it would have a core Tier-1 capital ratio of 7.2%. That looks skimpy. The bank says it would have plenty of time to build up capital through earnings or that it could take steps to free up capital through asset sales. Still, the risk on many investors’ minds is that the new team may be pushed into issuing shares at a deep discount to its book value.

德行自認(rèn)為,雖然法律上要求最遲2019年以前落實(shí)新巴塞爾協(xié)議,倘若自己能在明年完全實(shí)施新協(xié)議,將獲得7.2%的“核心一級(jí)”資本比率。德行聲稱,若果真能如此,自己就會(huì)有足夠的時(shí)間通過(guò)收益來(lái)累積資本,或是采取銷售資產(chǎn)的措施來(lái)解放資本。即便如此,眾投資者心里擔(dān)憂掛念的是,新領(lǐng)導(dǎo)團(tuán)隊(duì)或許會(huì)通過(guò)大幅打折來(lái)發(fā)行低于賬面價(jià)值的股票。
Regulators are also getting tougher on liquidity. Deutsche’s home regulator is BaFin, the German financial watchdog, but its biggest and riskiest trading operations happen in its London branch. Those close to the issue say that Britain’s Financial Services Authority (FSA) frets that it does not have enough direct control over Deutsche’s London operations because of European Union branching rules. BaFin approves Deutsche’s internal risk models, of which it has little other experience since Deutsche is the only complex bank it supervises. Regular trilateral sessions with the New York Federal Reserve and the FSA are supposed to give comfort on this score, but the FSA is haunted by the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, during which $8 billion of liquidity flew to America under the nose of supervisors. The FSA and Bank of England are trying to exert greater control by using their power to set requirements for branch liquidity.
監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)也正采取更為嚴(yán)厲的措施。德國(guó)金融監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu),聯(lián)邦金融監(jiān)管局(BaFin)雖是德行在德國(guó)本土的監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu),然而德行倫敦分行的業(yè)務(wù)卻是業(yè)務(wù)量最大,且風(fēng)險(xiǎn)最高的。知情人士稱,英國(guó)金融服務(wù)監(jiān)管局(FSA)擔(dān)心的是,礙于歐盟的分行法規(guī),自己無(wú)法對(duì)德行倫敦分行的業(yè)務(wù)進(jìn)行太多直接控制。監(jiān)管局對(duì)德行內(nèi)部的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模式持贊許態(tài)度。但因?yàn)榈滦惺堑聡?guó)金融監(jiān)管局監(jiān)督的唯一一家繁雜銀行,監(jiān)管局對(duì)此類風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模式并無(wú)其它監(jiān)督經(jīng)驗(yàn)。同紐約聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行、英國(guó)金融服務(wù)管理局定期舉行的三邊會(huì)議本該在這一方面給予德國(guó)金融監(jiān)管局安慰,然而在2008年9月雷曼兄弟宣布破產(chǎn)之時(shí),英國(guó)金融服務(wù)管理局眼睜睜看著80億美元的流動(dòng)資金從監(jiān)管人眼皮底下流入美國(guó),此事至今仍在困擾英國(guó)金融服務(wù)管理局。英國(guó)金融服務(wù)管理局和英國(guó)央行現(xiàn)今正試圖利用手中權(quán)力,更嚴(yán)格控制分行的流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)申請(qǐng)。

德意志銀行二.jpeg

Fitschen for purpose?

任命費(fèi)琛,有意為之?
As well as convincing regulators on capital, the new team will have to convince shareholders about its business model. Investment banking has been the engine of profits in recent years, but this is the bit of banking where new rules bear down particularly hard (and may bite even harder if Germany were to consider a separation of retail and wholesale activities).
新領(lǐng)導(dǎo)團(tuán)隊(duì)在資本方面說(shuō)服監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)的同時(shí),還需讓股東們相信自己的業(yè)務(wù)模式。投資銀行近幾年來(lái)一直是拉動(dòng)利潤(rùn)的引擎,而這也正是新巴塞爾協(xié)議專門打壓的部分。若德國(guó)果真將零售銀行和批發(fā)銀行從投資銀行中分離出來(lái),那恐怕新協(xié)議對(duì)投行盯得會(huì)更緊。
In their defence, Messrs Fitschen and Jain can point to two strengths. First, Deutsche was quick to appreciate that many areas, such as foreign-exchange and interest-rate swaps, were becoming volume (or “flow”) businesses where scale and low costs were paramount. By investing in IT systems to reduce transaction costs, the bank has been able to gain market share. Yet the process of consolidation is well under way; further gains will be harder.
菲茨岑和賈恩兩位先生可用以下兩條優(yōu)點(diǎn)來(lái)為自己辯護(hù)。首先,德行當(dāng)初很快的意識(shí)到,外匯和利率互換等領(lǐng)域在規(guī)模和低成本尤為重要的地區(qū)正逐漸發(fā)展為規(guī)模產(chǎn)業(yè)或流動(dòng)性產(chǎn)業(yè)。德行通過(guò)投資IT系統(tǒng)來(lái)削減交易成本,已能夠獲取市場(chǎng)份額。但是整合過(guò)程尚在籌備中,進(jìn)一步上漲將難以實(shí)現(xiàn)。
A second strength has been the bank’s domicile in Germany, which has the lowest borrowing costs of any of the big economies within Europe: on May 23rd Germany auctioned a two-year bond with a coupon of precisely zero. Partly as a result of being in Germany and partly because it is viewed as too big to fail, Deutsche Bank is seen as having a lower risk of default than its peers. That translates into lower funding costs for its investment bank. “Can you hold it against us that we’re in Europe’s safest economy?” quips one executive.
第二個(gè)優(yōu)點(diǎn)是德行的注冊(cè)地在德國(guó)。德國(guó)的借貸成本之低,為歐洲其它大型經(jīng)濟(jì)體不能及——今年5月23日,德國(guó)標(biāo)售了票面利率恰好為零的兩年期公債。部分是因?yàn)榈滦形挥诘聡?guó)境內(nèi),另一部分是因?yàn)榈滦斜豢醋鍪谴蠖坏沟臋C(jī)構(gòu),與同類銀行相比,外界認(rèn)為德意志銀行倒閉風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較低。低借貸成本便轉(zhuǎn)而成為投行部低廉的籌資成本。德行某總裁譏諷道,“我們身處全歐洲最安全的經(jīng)濟(jì)體中,您敢跟我們對(duì)著干?”
Despite these strengths, Deutsche’s new bosses will need to rebalance the bank’s earnings towards less racy areas such as retail and commercial banking. The bank has a long-standing ambition to earn more than half of its profits from divisions other than investment banking, yet these units have struggled to grow quickly enough to keep pace with Mr Jain’s empire.
除了上述兩個(gè)優(yōu)點(diǎn),德行的新總裁們有必要重新平衡零售銀行和商業(yè)銀行等不活躍領(lǐng)域的收益。德行長(zhǎng)久以來(lái)的夙愿,是希望除投行部以外的其它部門的收益能占總利潤(rùn)的一半以上。這些部門雖努力提速,想迎頭趕上,可事到如今仍未能同賈恩先生的帝國(guó)并駕齊驅(qū)。
The full acquisition of Deutsche Postbank, which gives the bank a far larger retail presence in Germany, will help shift the balance. It provides the scale for Deutsche to invest in computers and processing systems that, in theory at least, would allow it to build out a cost-competitive retail bank in neighbouring countries. The bank is also investing in its global-transactions service, which helps firms process payments and manage their finances abroad. This is a growing business, particularly in Asia, and one in which only a few big banks have the necessary scale to serve big multinational firms. A third area of focus needs to be on asset and wealth management. Both are lines of business that promise relatively stable income, but which Deutsche has yet to master.
德意志郵政銀行可以為德行在德國(guó)境內(nèi)帶來(lái)更大規(guī)模的零售業(yè)務(wù),若能全面收購(gòu)之,將有助于德行調(diào)整平衡。德行可借郵政銀行的規(guī)模,投資電腦,購(gòu)買系統(tǒng)。至少在理論上,這些系統(tǒng)可以幫助德行在周邊鄰國(guó)建立一個(gè)具有成本競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的零售銀行。德行對(duì)自家的國(guó)際交易服務(wù)也有投資。國(guó)際交易服務(wù)是一項(xiàng)幫助公司處理支付,管理公司海外財(cái)務(wù)的業(yè)務(wù)。該業(yè)務(wù)成長(zhǎng)迅速,在亞洲更是風(fēng)生水起。而且鮮有大型銀行在此項(xiàng)業(yè)務(wù)上,具備向大型跨國(guó)公司提供服務(wù)的必要規(guī)模。資產(chǎn)管理和財(cái)富管理是第三個(gè)重點(diǎn)領(lǐng)域。這兩個(gè)領(lǐng)域是相對(duì)穩(wěn)定收入的保障,而德行至今在上述領(lǐng)域做得不盡人意。
New chief executives usually have a honeymoon period in which they can reveal problems and blame them on the old management before having to prove their own worth. Mr Jain and Mr Fitschen may not have this luxury, given the acrimony surrounding their appointment, the impact of the euro crisis on confidence and familiar shareholder complaints over pay. They will be under immediate pressure to outline their plans to expand the divisions outside investment banking, while offering reassurance about levels of capital. Bankers on both sides of the Atlantic reckon that Deutsche is Europe’s most credible competitor to America’s universal-banking behemoths. But the new team is in a tougher position than that suggests.
新首席執(zhí)行官們上任后通常都有蜜月期。執(zhí)行官們可以在證明自己的價(jià)值前,彼此相互揭長(zhǎng)短,雙雙痛訴前任錯(cuò)。考慮到自德行任命賈恩和菲茨岑后,周遭尖酸批判聲四起,加之歐元危機(jī)對(duì)信心沖擊不斷,知情股東對(duì)分紅怨聲連天,兩位先生也許無(wú)福享受蜜月期。待兩人上任之時(shí),將立即面臨壓力,他們需在保障資本水平的同時(shí),勾勒出除投行部以外,其他部門的拓展計(jì)劃概況。大西洋兩岸的銀行家們認(rèn)為,德行是美國(guó)的全能銀行巨獸們?cè)跉W洲最可信的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者。然而,新領(lǐng)導(dǎo)團(tuán)的處境比銀行家們預(yù)期的更為艱難。 翻譯:王葭葦

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