評(píng)論
打印
The housing market
房市
Cool it
該降溫了
Property prices are rising swiftly. The Bank of England may intervene
房?jī)r(jià)一路攀登，英格蘭銀行可能插手
BRITAIN'S housing market is like food in a microwave, says Spencer Dale, the chief economist at the Bank of England. It can “turn from lukewarm to scalding hot in a matter of a few economic seconds”. Since the crisis the bank has gained new tools to control the market's temperature. Now that the heat is rising, it may soon start testing them out.
英格蘭首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家斯賓塞·戴爾說(shuō)，英國(guó)房市就像微波爐里的食品,“從經(jīng)濟(jì)角度來(lái)看，幾秒之內(nèi)就能從溫?zé)岬綕L燙”。自歐債危機(jī)以來(lái)，銀行已經(jīng)學(xué)到了一種控制市場(chǎng)溫度的新手段。然而現(xiàn)在隨著市場(chǎng)升溫，這些新手段或許也要開(kāi)始接受全面考驗(yàn)。
Until last year house prices were rising predominantly in prosperous central London boroughs. That was largely because of an influx of cash-rich buyers, says Neal Hudson of Savills, an estate agency. People saw posh property in the capital as a shelter from economic turmoil abroad. Elsewhere in Britain, the housing market was torpid. Potential buyers struggled to find mortgages. Falling real wages, economic uncertainty and the memory of plummeting house prices during the crisis curbed Britons' obsession with property.
繁華的倫敦中心市鎮(zhèn)去年房?jī)r(jià)還在顯著上升。第一太平戴維斯房地產(chǎn)機(jī)構(gòu)的尼爾·哈德遜稱(chēng)，這種現(xiàn)象主要是土豪扎堆造成的。人們把首都地區(qū)豪華時(shí)髦的地產(chǎn)看作躲避動(dòng)蕩的國(guó)外經(jīng)濟(jì)的避難所。在英國(guó)的其他地區(qū)，房市也很萎靡不振。潛在買(mǎi)家為了房屋貸款垂死掙扎。經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)期間下降的實(shí)際工資、經(jīng)濟(jì)的不確定性以及直線下降的房?jī)r(jià)遏制了英國(guó)人對(duì)房產(chǎn)的癡迷。
That changed in 2013. Prices rose by 6.8% in the year to January, according to the Office for National Statistics. They are still increasing fastest in London—up 13.2% compared with last year—but the inflation has spread to outer boroughs. In Brent, an unfashionable part of north-west London, prices have risen 31% in a year, according to a report from Nationwide, a building society. It recorded chunky increases in every part of Britain.
2013年情況有所改變。根據(jù)國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)，直至今年一月，房?jī)r(jià)已上漲了6.8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。倫敦房?jī)r(jià)還在以最快速度增長(zhǎng)—與去年相比增長(zhǎng)了13.2%—但是通貨膨脹已經(jīng)變得一發(fā)不可收拾，甚至影響到了倫敦以外的地方。據(jù)全英房屋抵押貸款協(xié)會(huì)報(bào)道顯示，作為倫敦西北部不甚有名的博倫特，其房?jī)r(jià)一年內(nèi)就已經(jīng)上漲了31%。此外，英國(guó)各地房?jī)r(jià)都出現(xiàn)了前所未有的大幅提升。
These higher prices are a problem for first-time buyers, but they are not yet unsustainable. Nationally, house prices remain 16% below their pre-crisis peak, adjusted for inflation. Prices are high relative to wages, but that is not surprising. Successive governments have failed to free enough land for new housing developments, while doggedly preserving green belts. Borrowing costs have fallen over recent decades, in part because of a global glut of savings, making it easier for Britons to sustain large mortgages. Neither factor is likely to reverse any time soon.
對(duì)于首次購(gòu)房者來(lái)說(shuō)，房?jī)r(jià)更高是一個(gè)問(wèn)題,但是這種價(jià)格還可能持續(xù)。在全國(guó)范圍內(nèi),房?jī)r(jià)仍比危機(jī)前為了通貨膨脹做出調(diào)整的峰值水平低16%。房?jī)r(jià)比工資更高,但這并不令人驚訝。歷屆政府都未能給新住宅開(kāi)發(fā)用地留下足夠空間，而固執(zhí)地保留綠化帶。最近幾十年借貸成本下降，部分原因是全球儲(chǔ)蓄過(guò)剩,使英國(guó)人更容易持有大量的抵押貸款。而這兩個(gè)因素近期都不可改變。
Even so, the housing market is notoriously prone to bubbles. In January Mark Carney, the bank's governor, warned MPs of the dangers of “extrapolative expectations”—people rushing to buy on the assumption that prices will continue to surge. Hints of that are visible. People increasingly think house prices will keep climbing. Even though the government's “Help to Buy” schemes, which subsidise higher-risk mortgages, are probably having only a moderate direct impact, publicity surrounding them has fed a broader conviction that prices can only go up.
即使如此，房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)還是容易出現(xiàn)泡沫。1月, 央行行長(zhǎng)馬克·卡尼警告國(guó)會(huì)議員關(guān)于“外推預(yù)測(cè)”的危險(xiǎn)——人們爭(zhēng)相把錢(qián)投向“房?jī)r(jià)會(huì)持續(xù)上漲”這樣一個(gè)預(yù)設(shè)（當(dāng)然這種預(yù)設(shè)也并非沒(méi)有可能實(shí)現(xiàn)）。人們?cè)絹?lái)越覺(jué)得房?jī)r(jià)會(huì)持續(xù)上漲。即使這樣，政府提出的平息高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)抵押貸款的“幫助購(gòu)房”政策也可能只能帶來(lái)些微影響，因?yàn)橹苓叚h(huán)境和輿論讓人們相信房?jī)r(jià)還是會(huì)持續(xù)上升。
Moreover, as borrowers chase higher prices their finances are becoming stretched. At the end of 2013, the average new loan for first-time buyers was 3.4 times the borrower's income—the highest level on record. Barclays, a bank, currently offers mortgages as large as 5.5 times the borrower's income. While interest rates are low, payments on such large loans are manageable. But when rates eventually rise, these borrowers could struggle. A wave of mortgage defaults, accompanied by falling house prices as banks try to sell repossessed houses, could cause yet another British banking crisis.
除此以外，由于借款者紛紛朝著高房?jī)r(jià)房產(chǎn)努力，他們的經(jīng)濟(jì)情況也越發(fā)緊張。2013年底，首次購(gòu)房者的平均新增貸款是借款人的收入3.4倍，達(dá)到歷史上的最高水平。巴克萊銀行目前提供的抵押貸款是借款人收入的5.5倍。然而利率低，償還這種大額貸款還是可行的。但是當(dāng)利率開(kāi)始穩(wěn)步上升時(shí)，這些借款者就有點(diǎn)心有余而力不足了。銀行試圖出售回收房，因而房?jī)r(jià)下跌，如此一來(lái)一波又一波的抵押貸款違約很可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致另一次英國(guó)的銀行業(yè)危機(jī)。
The Bank of England's new Financial Policy Committee (FPC) says it is watching for “emerging vulnerabilities” in the market. Formed less than a year ago to confront threats to financial stability, including bubbles, its range of “macroprudential” tools aim to influence the behaviour of the financial system. Whereas politicians hope rising house prices will cheer voters ahead of next year's general election, the committee can afford to take a longer view. With interest rates expected to remain low for a few more years, it is mulling what to do.
英國(guó)央行的新金融政策委員會(huì)(FPC)說(shuō)他們正在坐等市場(chǎng)“即將出現(xiàn)的漏洞”。 金融政策委員會(huì)成立不到一年，就面臨包括房?jī)r(jià)泡沫在內(nèi)的金融不穩(wěn)定因素的威脅，其職能范圍的“宏觀審慎”工具旨在影響金融行業(yè)的一舉一動(dòng)。而政客們希望上漲的房?jī)r(jià)可以在明年的大選之前重振選民信心,這樣金融政策委員才會(huì)做長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)打算。由于幾年內(nèi)預(yù)計(jì)利率仍保持在較低水平,FPC正在考慮該做什么。
Dabbing the brakes
踩剎車(chē)
One approach is stricter vetting of borrowers. From April 26th banks will have to check that applicants have enough spare cash to cope if the Bank of England raises interest rates as markets expect (to around 3% in 2019). That is still a remarkably low standard. Future interest rates are uncertain; in past decades they have frequently exceeded 5%. The FPC has requested the power to impose tougher interest-rate tests, and will probably have it by the summer. That would allow it to curb the size of new loans, without increasing costs for existing borrowers.
控制局面的一種方法是嚴(yán)格審查借款人。從4月26日起，銀行必須檢查申請(qǐng)者是否有足夠的閑錢(qián)應(yīng)對(duì)英格蘭銀行利率提高的打算(到2019年的3%左右)。事實(shí)上這還是一個(gè)較低標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。未來(lái)利率是不確定的,在過(guò)去的幾十年,他們經(jīng)常超過(guò)5%。金融政策委員會(huì)要求實(shí)施更嚴(yán)厲的利率測(cè)試,這個(gè)測(cè)試可能會(huì)在夏天。這項(xiàng)測(cè)試不增加現(xiàn)有借款人的成本，也可控制新增貸款數(shù)額。
Explore and compare house prices in 13 British regions over time with our interactive house-price tool
用交互式房?jī)r(jià)工具探索和比較13個(gè)英國(guó)地區(qū)不同時(shí)間的房?jī)r(jià)
An alternative is more vigorous stress tests of mortgage lenders themselves, using stringent scenarios that assume interest rates rise sharply while house prices fall. Forcing lenders to hold buffers large enough to withstand such a shock should deter them from offering the riskiest kinds of mortgage.
除了利率測(cè)試，還有一個(gè)針對(duì)借貸者的壓力測(cè)試，這個(gè)測(cè)試使用嚴(yán)格的場(chǎng)景，假設(shè)利率大幅上升，房?jī)r(jià)下跌。強(qiáng)迫接待者承受這樣的沖擊往往讓他們不敢提供風(fēng)險(xiǎn)最高的抵押貸款。
Kevin Daly, an economist at Goldman Sachs, an investment bank, thinks the FPC will enforce tougher affordability tests this year, possibly as soon as June. That would take some heat out of the market. It could also be unpopular. Poorer people would have to save for longer to buy a house. Wealthy home-owners would lose the comfort of swiftly rising prices. And George Osborne, the chancellor of the exchequer, would probably regret the cooling of a pre-election housing boomlet. But the FPC is independent for a reason. It should not fear to act.
投行高盛投資公司的一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家凱文·戴利認(rèn)為，金融政策委員會(huì)趕在今年6月實(shí)施更嚴(yán)格的負(fù)擔(dān)能力測(cè)試。這可能會(huì)使房產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)降溫，也可能不受歡迎。經(jīng)濟(jì)條件較差的人可能需要花費(fèi)更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間為買(mǎi)房存款，富有的房屋所有者也可能因?yàn)榧彼偕仙姆績(jī)r(jià)頗感不適。英國(guó)財(cái)政大臣喬治?奧斯本或許會(huì)后悔選前冷卻房地產(chǎn)短期繁榮的措施。但金融政策委員獨(dú)立也是有原因的，他們可不怕采取行動(dòng)。譯者：張丹 校對(duì)：沈曉旭
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