評論
打印
The North Sea
北海
Running on fumes
油盡氣絕
Scottish nationalists are right to charge that Britain has mismanaged North Sea oil. Unionists are probably right to retort that the alternative would be worse
蘇格蘭民族主義者們明確指出英國對于北海燃油的管理不善。工會成員可能正確反駁了替代可能會更糟糕這一說法。
NORMALLY Britain's politicians would rather be seen peddling green schemes or bashing power firms than gladhanding oilmen. Yet on February 24th bigwigs from the British and Scottish governments travelled to Aberdeen, the country's oil capital, to hold separate cabinet meetings a few miles apart. Both camps hoped to persuade voters in this year's referendum on Scottish independence that they alone could ensure the oil industry's future. Both of them struck a dry hole.
通常，相比接待石油商，英國的政客們更愿去兜售綠色方案或是去抨擊電力公司。然而，2月24日來自英國和蘇格蘭的政府要員們出發前往號稱“石油之都”的阿伯丁，分別舉行秘密會議。雙方陣營都認為能確保石油工業的未來，希望能勸服在今年關于蘇格蘭獨立的公投中的選民。但雙方都一無所獲。
The North Sea produces almost half of the energy Britain needs. Scottish nationalists hope the taxes it generates, which amounted to 6.5 billion (10.1 billion) last year, will make an independent state rich. But the oil and gas is running out. Production fell by 6% a year on average between 1999 and 2010; since then it has dived by nearly 40% (see first chart). Meanwhile costs are spurting upwards: it is nearly five times more expensive to extract a barrel of North Sea oil than it was in 2002. Investment in exploration, which once rose and fell with the oil price, is at rock bottom (see second chart) even though nine billion barrels may remain unfound. On February 25th Malcolm Webb of Oil & Gas UK, an industry body, said exploration is facing its biggest challenge in 50 years.
英國所需的近一半的能源都是由北海提供。蘇格蘭民族主義者希望由此帶來的稅收能使一個獨立國家變富裕，此項稅收去年就帶來了65億英鎊（101億美元）。但是石油和汽油已經不多了。在1999年與2010年間的產量每年平均下降6％；自那起，產量急劇下降了將近40％。隨之而來的是成本的飆升：現今提取一桶北海原油要花費比2002年近五倍的更昂貴的價格。對于伴隨原油價格起落的勘探投資來說，即使是有90億桶的原油未被發現，它也舉步維艱。2月25日，英國石油天然氣協會（一個行業團體）的馬爾科姆·韋伯表示，勘探正面臨著50年來最大的挑戰。
Some of these problems are simply signs of age. Britain's offshore fields have gushed for longer than pioneers expected; as a result, much time and cash must be spent maintaining ageing kit. As the most profitable reserves dwindle, drillers are opening up smaller fields in more difficult locations, such as the deep, wild waters found west of the Shetland Islands.
這些問題的一部分僅僅是老化的跡象。英國海上油田的開采程度比開發者們所預想的更深遠；也因此，要花費大量的資金和時間來對老化的套件進行維修。帶來巨大效益的儲量在日趨減少，因此，在更難開發的位置以鉆井開發小領域正在進行，比如在設德蘭群島西部的遠海深水海域。
Yet roughnecks say the British government's policies have made an ever-trickier job harder. Oilmen once thought the North Sea a safe harbour from risks run in more exotic places, but successive tax grabs have changed their minds. The Labour government increased corporation tax for oil firms in 2002 and 2006; in 2011 the coalition raised it again, crushing investment. Westminster has churned through 14 energy ministers in 17 years.
但是，據鉆工所說，英國政府的政策已經使得本就不斷棘手的工作更難進行。石油商曾認為相比于外地運營風險的不斷升高，北海會是個避風港，但是，持續不斷的稅收爭奪已經改變了這個想法。工黨政府在2002和2006年提高了石油公司的公司所得稅；在2011年，該聯盟再次上調了稅收，打壓了投資。威斯敏斯特在17年間已經更換了14位能源部長。
The British government also took ages to clarify how the costs of decommissioning rigs will be divided, discouraging new entrants from buying elderly fields. Even as web entrepreneurs are coddled in London, a shortage of skilled engineers pushes up labour costs in Aberdeen. In a report published on February 24th Sir Ian Wood, a veteran oilman, argued that politicians have let the industry regulator grow toothless. He said a beefier body would help firms extract small, hard-to-reach deposits, in part by forcing competitors to more fairly share pipelines and other infrastructure.
通過購買舊設備來阻止新進入者，英國政府也花了很長時間來澄清花費在即將廢棄的鉆機上的資金劃分。甚至是在人才濟濟的倫敦，技術型工程師的短缺還是增加了阿伯丁勞工的花費。一個資深的石油商人—伊恩·伍德，于 2月24日發表的報告上指出，政客們使得行業監管變得軟弱無力。他提出，一個強大的內部結構會在一定程度上，強制性的使競爭者更加公平地分享基礎設施和管道通路，達到為公司獲取更細微、難以得到的利益。
A brief turnaround in the industry's fortunes could give the authorities a chance to rethink. New tax incentives for oil firms taking on very complex projects, combined with a high oil price, has encouraged a flurry of investment into old fields and those once thought too costly to exploit. As a result, oil and gas production will probably rise this year for the first time in over a decade—though it will soon sink again unless exploration increases. Ed Davey, the energy secretary, promised to implement Sir Ian's recommendations swiftly. Nationalists followed suit.
企業未來的一個短暫的轉變給予了當局重新考慮的機會。針對石油商在一些非常復雜的項目上升高油價的表現，出臺的新稅收優惠政策鼓勵了一系列投資到曾認為開發過于昂貴而止步的舊領域。由此而來的，是石油和天然氣產量很可能在今年有所提升，這可是十年來第一次。除非勘探增加，不然產量又要不久后再次下降。能源部長艾德·戴維承諾，將盡快實施伊恩先生的建議。英國民族獨立者們緊隨其后。
thousand-odd oil services firms rose by 17% between 2010 and 2011, to 27 billion, according to EY, an accountancy firm. The small oil companies now investing in the North Sea are hungry for cost-cutting tools and tricks but do not have large research and service arms of their own, so they buy expertise. But the boom also reflects demand for British skills abroad. Subsea UK, which represents underwater engineering companies, reckons its members account for 45% of the global market and make half their cash outside Britain.
隨著北海能源的慢慢枯竭，另一行業卻在不斷崛起。由安永（會計事務所）可知，在2010年和2011年之間，英國千余所石油服務公司的收入增長了17 ％，達到了270億英鎊。現在投資于北海的小型石油公司對于削減成本的工具和技巧是極度渴望的，但沒有自己的大型研究和服務能力，因此他們購買了技術。然而同時，這種發展也反映了英國海外技能的需求。海底英國，這個水下工程公司的代表，統計出它們的成員占全球市場的45％，并使他們一半的資金處于國外。
Alex Salmond, Scotland's first minister, says his Scottish National Party would do a better job of exploiting the North Sea, should the country plump for independence in September. He pledges to pour revenues into a national fund that will smooth the impact of oil booms and busts on Scotland's economy, and give it cash to invest. Norway's thrifty governments have stashed away 840 billion from their share of the North Sea's treasure. Gavin McCrone, an economist and former government adviser, calls Britain's failure to save its oil money “a serious mishandling of the greatest opportunity for the economy in the last half century”.
英格蘭第一部長阿歷克斯·薩蒙德表示，他的蘇格蘭民主黨在開發北海的工作上會做得更好，國家應該在九月份選擇獨立。他承諾將收入歸入國家基金，這將會緩和石油快速發展的影響和對蘇荷蘭經濟的沖擊，并且會給投資以資金支持。挪威的節儉政府已從他們北海財富的份額中隱匿了8400億美元。經濟學家和前政府顧問，加文·邁克龍，聲稱，英國未能挽救其石油財富是“在過去的半個世紀中，經濟上最好機會面前的嚴重失誤。”
A shaky platform
一個搖搖欲墜的平臺
Up to now oil bosses have mostly avoided the independence debate. “People are all scared to express their opinions,” admits Francis Neill of EV, a company that makes video cameras which work down wells. But most think a Scottish state would raise taxes further. Some fear having to deal with more bureaucracy—about half the North Sea's oil services firms are based in England, and many Scottish ones have facilities on both sides of the border. Separation might complicate their work, and perhaps even drive some abroad.
目前為止，大多是石油老板都在避免獨立的爭論。EV（一個生產攝影機產量逐步減少的公司）的弗朗西斯·尼爾表示，“人們都懼怕說出自己的看法。” 但是大多數人認為蘇格蘭應進一步提高稅收。由于一半的北海石油服務公司的總部設在英格蘭，還有一些蘇格蘭人在兩地邊界有其設施，一部分人擔心會與當地官僚勢力起爭執。分散開可能會復雜化他們的工作，甚至可能影響一些國外的工作。
In theory the oil industry's crucial contribution to a new Scottish state ought to guarantee careful treatment from the country's leaders. But city councillors already complain that the nationalist government in Edinburgh has failed to grant Aberdeen the money it needs to thrive. The industry fears its choked-up roads and unsightly centre are making it more difficult to attract workers who could earn as much in Houston or Stavanger.
理論上講，對于新的蘇格蘭石油行業至關重要的是保證國家領導對其的認真對待。市議員卻早已抱怨愛丁堡的民主政府未能保證給予阿伯丁發展所需資金。業內人士擔心，這個道路不平又無華麗中心的地區會因此越來越難爭取那些在休斯敦或是斯塔萬格高收入的工人。
An independent Scotland would start life with a large budget deficit. That would probably make it impossible to start an oil fund for some years, at least without big cuts to public expenditure. And nationalists may well be overestimating how much of the gloopy stuff they can squeeze out. Holyrood's prediction for oil revenues in 2018 is twice Westminster's estimates. The difference is important. With a big haul, Scotland's politicians could perhaps afford to cosset oil firms. Without one, the young nation might have to milk them harder than ever.
一個獨立的蘇格蘭將開始一種伴有巨大預算赤字的生活。這可能會導致幾年間無法啟動石油基金，至少在沒有公共支出沒有大幅度消減的情況下無法啟動。民族主義者們可能高估了他們所能壓榨出的那些黏糊糊的東西的價值。荷里路德預測的2018年的石油收入是威斯敏斯特所估計的兩倍。這個中區別是異常重要的。由于存在很大的距離，蘇格蘭的政客們可能要擔負起“驕縱”石油公司的職責了。如果沒有人這樣做，這個年輕的國家“喂養”他們可能會變得越來越難。譯者：張娣 校對：邵林
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