評論
打印
Voting habits
投票習慣
Movers and voters
搬家與選票
Why moving house makes people more right-wing
為何搬家會讓人更右翼
DO PEOPLE move to Conservative bastions in shires and small-town England because they tend to vote Tory? Or do they vote for David Cameron's party because they live in Tory strongholds? A forthcoming paper by Patrick Sturgis of Southampton University, Frank Buscha of Westminster University and others examines how people's political views change as they move house.
人們是因為想投票給保守黨才搬到郡下和英格蘭小鎮上的保守黨據點，還是因為他們居住在保守黨據點所以才投票給大衛· 卡梅隆所在的政黨？在一篇即將發表的文章中，英國南安普頓大學的帕特里克·斯特吉斯以及威斯敏斯特大學的弗蘭克·布施等人對民眾政治觀點變化與住所遷移的關系進行了研究。
Mr Sturgis and his colleagues are particularly interested in the effect of moving to safe Conservative or Labour seats from any other kind. They found that the longer people live in bits of Britain that overwhelmingly vote Conservative, the more likely they are to support that party (see chart). People who move to safe Labour seats do not become more left-wing, though.
尤其令斯特吉斯和他的同事們感興趣的是，從其他地區搬到保守黨或工黨穩定支持地區（對民眾政治觀點）所產生的影響。他們發現，人們在英國一些壓倒性支持保守黨的地區居住的時間越長，就越傾向于支持該黨。而搬到工黨穩定支持地區的人們并不會變得更左翼。
Social and economic factors such as income, age and marital status affect people's decisions about where to move, and also influence the way they vote. But the researchers tried to control for this. They still found that people tend to grow more right-wing the longer they live in Tory seats.
諸如收入、年齡和婚姻狀況之類的社會與經濟因素都會對人們想搬到哪里的決定產生影響，同時也會影響到他們的投票方式。研究者嘗試對這些因素進行控制，但他們依然發現長期居住在保守黨據點的人們會變得更加右翼。
One explanation is that Conservatives are better at nudging newcomers to join their tribe. Safe Labour seats tend to be urban, mobile and socially diverse, so people who move to them may feel less compelled to fit in. Another possibility is that people who move to Labour strongholds are already so left-wing that it is difficult for them to become stronger supporters of the party.
一種解釋是保守黨更擅長吸收新來者加入他們的陣營。工黨穩定支持地區多為流動性更強且社會多元化的城市，搬至此地的人們或許覺得并不需要完全融入其中。另一種可能性是，搬到工黨據點的人們已經很左翼，很難讓他們進一步支持該黨。
Safe seats do not determine the outcome of elections, so this pattern matters little in the short term, suggests Peter Kellner, head of YouGov, a polling firm. But it will matter eventually. Britain may be succumbing to a process known in America as “the big sort”, which has been blamed for growing political polarisation in that country. A Conservative victory in 2015 that secures few seats in northern England or Scotland, or a Labour win that leaves the south coloured deep blue, would not be healthy for democracy.
民治調查機構（YouGov）的負責人彼得·科爾表示，穩得席位并不代表選舉穩操勝券，因而這種模式在短期內影響甚微，但最終仍將（對選舉結果）產生影響。英國或將步美國“大類”之后塵，后者因日趨嚴峻的政治兩極化而備受指責。2015大選，若保守黨勝利則能保證北英格蘭或蘇格蘭的一些席位，若工黨獲勝則將使南部著上深藍色，這都不利于民主的健康發展。譯者：朱大素 校對：王穎
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