評論
打印
Palestine and Western aid
巴勒斯坦和西方外援
Will it be cut off?
這援助會取消不？
The Israelis ponder their next move in the wake of Palestinian reconciliation
隨著巴勒斯坦人內部的和解，以色列正權衡他們自己的下一步行動
FEW Arab towns collect rubbish as smoothly as Bethlehem. No sooner have the merchants lowered their shutters at the end of the day than the dustmen under the command of Iyad abu Rudeineh are primed to enter its tangle of restored old alleys. Much of this success, he admits, is due to an American road-building project that has eased access. Yet in the wake of a recent reconciliation agreement between Palestine's two main rival parties, the secular Fatah and the Islamist Hamas, he fears that American support may cease. For the United States and many Arab and European countries deem Hamas a terror group. They are prepared to support the Palestinian Authority (PA) run by Mahmoud Abbas of Fatah (pictured), but not if Hamas is involved. By the time the pope visits Bethlehem on May 25th, he may find the streets strewn with rubbish.
很少有阿拉伯城鎮會像伯利恒（耶穌降生地）那樣平凈地回收垃圾。繁忙的一天快結束了，商人們剛想拉下百葉窗打烊，受命于Iyad abu Rudeineh的清潔工人們就會涌進一條條充滿活力卻混亂的小巷。他認為這種成功歸功于美國的道路修建計劃，這計劃大大消除了道路壓力。然而隨著近日巴勒斯坦的兩個最大競爭黨世俗主義的法塔赫與伊斯蘭教的哈馬斯和解聲明公布，他擔憂美國將會停止對以支援。究其原因則是美國和許多阿拉伯、歐洲國家將哈馬斯視為恐怖組織。他們做好了支持由Mahmoud Abbas of Fatah所領導的巴勒斯坦民族權力機構（又稱巴勒斯坦自治政府）的準備，但前提是哈馬斯沒有牽扯其中。在教皇于五月二十五日訪問伯利恒之時，可能他會發現那里遍地垃圾。
The risks are real. Barely two years have passed since America ended its most recent boycott of Bethlehem. That lasted seven years, after its townspeople had elected representatives from two factions designated by America as terror groups to its council. Mr Abu Rudeineh worries that the billboards recently erected hailing the accomplishments of America's aid arm, USAID, could soon look out of date. Palestinian officials say USAID officials cancelled meetings, albeit apologetically, the day after Hamas and Fatah announced their agreement. Congress, the American officials explained, would not let them “finance terror”. Whereas the agreement offers Gazans the prospect that their seaside enclave, run by Hamas, may no longer be boxed in by Israel and Egypt, Mr Abbas's fief in the West Bank, inland, could end up paying the price.
這并非聳人聽聞。距美國結束最近一次抵制伯利恒的活動這才僅僅過去兩年。那場抵制運動持續了七年，就在那里的人民從兩個被美國認定為恐怖組織的派別中選舉出了議會代表之后。Abu Rudeineh先生擔心最近樹立起的一批稱贊美國援助的成就的公告牌，比如美國國際開發署，會很快就過期。
But America has not yet cut ties as a result of the deal. The day that USAID officials cancelled the meeting, the World Bank awarded 13m for wastewater projects and America's secretary of state, John Kerry, hosted a banquet for businessmen to drum up cash for a scheme for investment in Palestine. On the same day, says a senior Palestinian, Barack Obama talked to Mr Abbas for half an hour on the telephone. While new projects may be put on hold, American officials say old ones may continue. A music festival backed by USAID in Jericho, in the Jordan valley, for instance, went ahead.
不過美國人尚未打算切斷這種關系作為交易結果。美國國際開發署官員取消會議的當天，世界銀行將總額為一千三百萬美元的獎金發給了一個廢水處理項目和美國國務卿約翰克里，并讓他籌辦一次宴會為在巴勒斯坦的投資計劃向商人籌集現金。同日，一名巴勒斯坦資深人士聲稱奧巴馬與阿巴斯在電話中談了半小時之久。在諸多新項目可能會推遲的情況下，美國官員稱以前的項目可能會繼續進行。例如，一個在約旦谷的Jericho舉行的、由美國國際開發署贊助的音樂節將會繼續。
Israel's government says it wants the West to show “moral clarity” by cutting support for any Palestinian government backed by Hamas, a group that has been responsible for killing more than 1,000 Israelis, many of them civilian.
以色列政府想要西方通過切斷所有針對哈馬斯支持的巴勒斯坦政府的援助來展現他們道義分明。這個哈馬斯組織應對屠殺一千多名以色列平民負責，其中多數都是手無寸鐵的平民。
America's Congress may concur with the Israelis, and cut funds to the Palestinians in response to the Fatah-Hamas deal. But other American officials see a possible benefit if Hamas comes to accept the notion of a two-state settlement with Israel. These Americans argue that Hamas's dire straits in Gaza may enable Mr Abbas to secure an advantageous deal for himself, paving the way for his return to power there. And they fear that past boycotts of Hamas may have deprived Western countries of influence in Gaza and helped the Islamists to tighten their grip there. In any case, says one, it would be good if Europeans and Arabs were to make up the shortfall in aid to the Palestinians, should Congress prompt the American administration to pull out.
美國國會有可能會與以色列達成一致，以切斷對巴勒斯坦的資金援助作為對法塔赫-哈馬斯協定的回應。話雖如此，另外有一些美國官員認為，假如哈馬斯接受了與以色列的雙邊和解理念，其中潛在的利益將不可小覷。這兩派持不同意見的美國人爭論的焦點在于，哈馬斯在加沙地帶的殘暴行徑可能會促使阿巴斯先生為他自己爭取到一個非常有優勢的籌碼，而此籌碼將直接為他的重新掌權而鋪平道路。此外，他們還擔憂過去針對哈馬斯的抵制行動可能會令西方國家喪失在加沙的影響力，進而使以色列加緊了在當地的支配力。無論如何，假如歐洲人與阿拉伯人能夠把對巴勒斯坦的援助補上的話將是極好的，因為這樣美國國會就會促使其政府將行政機構撤出當地。
So far the Israeli government's response has been more bark than bite. In response to the Fatah-Hamas deal, Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, declared that he was suspending negotiations with Mr Abbas and stopping the transfer of customs revenues which comprise two-thirds of Mr Abbas's PA budget. But he did so only after first allowing the monthly transfer to proceed, nervous lest the PA might collapse without it, thereby stoking general mayhem in the West Bank. Israel, it has been noted, has itself bargained with Hamas in the past, arranging repeated ceasefires with it since 2004.
目前來看，以色列政府的反應看起來強硬其實為了掩蓋其柔軟的內心。在對法塔赫-哈馬斯協定的回應中，以色列總理本雅明·內塔尼亞胡宣稱他正推遲與阿巴斯的談判，同時停止占阿巴斯的巴勒斯坦民族權力機構支出三分之二的關稅收入的轉移。然而由于他唯恐巴勒斯坦民族權力機構沒了它就會土崩瓦解，所以僅僅是在首次允許每月一次的轉移進行之后才這樣做，所以才會在約旦河西岸地區煽動騷亂。至于以色列，早已注意到了這點，他們已經與哈馬斯博弈了很久，自從2004年以來就在不停地商議停火事宜。
Some Israelis think that they have something to gain by having Hamas on board. “Political accommodation between the two major Palestinian factions offers Israel the assurance that its negotiating partner has the political legitimacy, even if not the full backing, of the Palestinian people,” says Yonatan Touval of Mitvim, a liberal foreign-policy think-tank in Tel Aviv. Before cutting aid for good, Mr Netanyahu may wait to see who exactly will be in the Palestinians' unity government and what its programme will be—indeed, whether it will happen at all.
一些以色列人認為，拉攏哈馬斯會獲得相當可觀的利益。“巴勒斯坦兩大主要派別的政治和解確保了以色列的政治合作伙伴具有合法性和正統性，即使這并非為所有巴勒斯坦人所支持。”一位身處特拉維夫市、名為Yonatan Touval of Mitvim的自由主義外交政策研究者如是說。在切斷援助之前，內塔尼亞胡可能會先觀察一下組建巴聯合政府的都有誰，還有就是這個新組建的聯合政府究竟會打什么算盤——確實是這樣，不管這一切是否會發生。 譯者：許寶明
譯文屬譯生譯世
