評論
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Ukraine's election
烏克蘭大選
Good voters, not such good guys
好馬無好鞍
The poll results were promising, but the future for Ukraine is dauntingly difficult
大選的結局充滿希望，但是烏克蘭的未來依然撲朔迷離
TO ALL appearances, Ukraine's parliamentary election on October 26th was a triumph. Reformists mostly won and voters rebuked the far right and far left. Western allies heaped praise on the pro-European, pro-democratic results. Yet Ukraine remains troubled and deeply divided.
從各方面來說，10月26號烏克蘭議會選舉的結果都是振奮人心的。改革派取得了絕對的勝利，選民們也擊退了極右和極左主義。烏克蘭的西方盟友對于這種親歐盟，和民主化的選舉結果給予了極高的贊揚。然而烏克蘭依然面臨不少困難并且深陷分裂的危機中。
In an upset, the People's Front party of Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the prime minister, narrowly beat President Petro Poroshenko's bloc by 22.2% to 21.8%. This means that Ukraine will keep two power centres, as Mr Yatsenyuk seems sure to stay in office. Mr Poroshenko had hoped to win a majority and install a loyalist instead. Now the People's Front and the Poroshenko Bloc must form a coalition, probably with the third-placed Samopomich (self-help) party, led by the mayor of Lviv. The six parties that reached a 5% threshold will fill half of the 450-seat parliament (Rada) from their party lists. The rest will come from districts where deputies are elected directly and only later join party factions.
在一種惴惴不安的氣氛中，代理總理亞采紐克領導的人民前線黨最終以22.2%對21.8%的微弱優勢擊敗了總統彼得·波羅申科領導的政治聯盟。這意味著烏克蘭將存在兩個權力中心，因此亞采紐克看上去鐵定會繼續在位。相反的波羅申科曾經最希望看到的結果是能贏得大多數選票并且能扶持一個忠誠的支持者。現在，人民前線和波羅申科的黨派必須同第三方新興政黨——由 Lviv市市長領導的Samopomich（自主聯盟）建立一個政治聯盟。六個贏得了進入議會門檻——5%選票的政黨將用自己的成員填滿其中過半的席位。剩下的席位將從各地區的直接選舉并且接下來也將加入各自的小團體。
The vote reflected the western regions' power in the new Ukraine. Turnout was highest in the west, and relatively low overall at 52% (down from 60% in May's presidential election). In Lviv 70% of voters showed up, against only 40% in Odessa. In Ukrainian-controlled areas of the Donbas turnout was just 32%. Neither Crimea nor the separatist-held eastern regions voted (their 27 seats in the Rada will stay empty).
這次大選反應了西部地區在新烏克蘭的影響力。相對于5月份總統大選時西部選民占據60%的情況來說，此次比例有所下降（這次僅有52%）。在Lviv 有70%的選民出席，對應的在敖德薩僅僅只有40%的選民參與了投票。在烏克蘭控制的頓涅茨克地區出席率也僅僅只有32%，更不用說在克里米亞和分裂主義者控制的東部地區了。（他們在議會中的27個席位將暫時閑置。）
The Opposition Bloc, a revamped version of Viktor Yanukovych's reviled Party of Regions, got into the Rada, after finishing fourth, with 9%. The party won much of the south-east—Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhia and even Dnipropetrovsk. Joining them in parliament will be some 60-70 directly elected deputies aligned with the old regime. Their presence will incense first-time politicians drawn from the Maidan movement who fought hard to oust Mr Yanukovych. It will also upset Ukraine's volunteer battalions, including commanders of three powerful anti-rebel paramilitary groups who were elected.
反對黨——改頭換面的亞努科維奇諷刺地區黨最終以第四名的身份——獲得了9%的選票陳宮進入議會。他們贏得大多數頓涅茨克東南部；路甘斯克；哈爾科夫；扎波羅熱甚至是第聶伯羅彼得羅夫斯克地區的選票。他們的入選將給議會帶來60到70名與舊政體站在同一戰線的直系代理人。這些人的出席將激怒那些費盡心思廢黜了亞努科維奇（“買單”運動）之后誕生的第一批政治家。隨著包括三名反政府準軍事武裝組織的領導人在內的一批人的介入，烏克蘭志愿軍陷入了深深的不安之中。
Co-operation with the Opposition Bloc, which includes Mr Yanukovych's former chief of staff, Sergei Levochkin, will be unpalatable. But Hannes Schreiber, of the EU delegation in Kiev, argues it will be “decisive to have the former ruling side in the dialogue”. Failure to do so would increase feelings of exclusion in Russian-leaning regions, where Kremlin agents continue to sow dissent. (Ukrainian security services say they detained pro-Russian “diversion groups” in Kharkiv, Odessa, Zaporizhia, Mariupol and Kiev before the vote.)
很多人都認為和亞努科維的前首席參謀長Sergei Levochkin所在的反對黨合作是非常失敗的。但是歐盟在基輔的代言人Hannes Schreiber堅稱讓前執政黨的勢力參與對話是非常必要的。如果不這樣做，將會助長那些克林姆林宮持續散播分裂主義種子的親俄地區的抵觸情緒。（烏克蘭安全委員會聲稱他們在大選之前阻攔了大批位于哈爾科夫，敖德薩，扎波羅熱，馬里烏波爾和基輔的“轉移組織”。）
Even more destructive would be infighting within the coalition. Whereas the parties' broad pro-European aims are aligned, their business interests and personal ambitions are not. Horse-trading for jobs and squabbling over reforms has already begun. Mr Poroshenko and Mr Yatsenyuk have both put forward their own proposals. Mr Yatsenyuk, who takes a hawkish attitude to Russia, has declared himself the election's winner and put “restoration of sovereignty and territorial integrity” at the top of his cabinet's priorities.
事實上聯盟內斗帶來的危害更大。在那里雖然廣大親歐盟黨派的目標是一致的，但是他們的商業和個人利益卻不盡相同。關于就業和改革討價還價般的爭執已然開始。不管是波羅申科還是亞采紐克都在推行他們各自的主張。亞采紐克一直對俄羅斯采取極度強硬的態度，他聲稱自己是大選的勝利者并且將實現“國家主權和領土完整”列為自己執政的第一要務。
Mr Poroshenko, who has more allies among directly elected deputies, will not easily relinquish the reins. He seems determined to direct reforms from the presidential administration, where his aides have spent months preparing draft laws, with a focus on deregulation, judicial reform and decentralisation. After the 2004 Orange revolution, conflicts between the president and the prime minister plagued the government, which squandered the chance of broad change to the system. Mr Poroshenko and Mr Yatsenyuk must learn from those mistakes. “Delay with reforms is fatal for us,” Mr Poroshenko himself said.
在那些直接選舉產生的代表中擁有更多盟友的總統波羅申科絕對不會輕易放棄這股力量。他似乎決心通過總統的權力進行直接改革，他的助手們花了幾個月的時間來制定法律，這些新法案專注于解除管制，司法改革以及權力下放。事實上，自從2004年的橙色革命之后，總理和總統間的權力沖突一直困擾著烏克蘭政府，而這種行為極大地浪費了體制改革的機會。不論是波羅申科還是亞采紐克都必須從之前的錯誤中吸取教訓。波羅申科表示“對我們來說，拖延改革是極其致命的。”
At stake is the survival not just of the new government, but of Ukraine itself. The economy, teetering on the verge of collapse, depends on foreign aid that is linked to reforms. This week the EU promised more help. But reforms are likely only to increase the pain for people ravaged by war and facing a gas-starved winter.
不論是對于幸存的新政府還是烏克蘭本身來說，現在的情況都是危如累卵。國家經濟接近崩潰，全靠國際援助支撐，這種支撐還得依靠改革的成效來維系。本周，歐盟當局承諾給予更多援助。但是就目前來看，一系列改革措施只能增加人們因戰爭帶來的痛楚，同時還得面對一個沒有天然氣的寒冬。
Ukraine has to contend with its rebels and with Vladimir Putin (see article). The separatist republics in Donetsk and Luhansk will hold elections on November 2nd, a vote that Kiev condemns but Moscow will recognise. Ukrainian soldiers, two-thirds of whom did not vote because they could not leave their positions, still die on the front. On their way to the polls during a freezing election day in Kiev, voters expressed only tepid hopes. “The people won't tolerate the politicians' games any longer,” said Svetlana Ischenko, 68, in the foyer of Lesya Ukrainka Gymnasium. “If we don't change now, either Ukraine will fall to pieces or Putin will take us over.” Unfortunately, she may be right.
烏克蘭不但要和反政府武裝斗爭還要隨時提防普京。位于頓涅茨克和盧甘斯克的分離派共和政體將在11月2號舉行選舉，即便基輔極力譴責，但是莫斯科顯然會承認這一行為。接近三分之二的烏克蘭士兵并未參加選舉，因為他們不能離開自己的崗位，他們依然在前線犧牲。在一個寒風凜冽的日子去基輔參加投票，選民們表達出一種微弱的希望。68歲的Svetlana Ischenko在Lesya Ukrainka體育館表示：“人們已經受夠政治家們的游戲！如果我們現在還不改變，要么烏克蘭徹底完蛋，要么普京將來接管我們。”即便很殘酷，但她可能說出了實情。譯者：曾擎禹 校對：邵夏沁
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