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Scottish nationalism
蘇格蘭的民族情懷
Thistles and thorns
煩心亂意
What the Scottish National Party will try to do in Westminster
蘇格蘭民族黨在議會中的舉動意欲何在
WITH hardly a glimpse of tartan, Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP), presented her squad of 56 MPs at the House of Commons on May 11th (although she herself is not one of them). Their increased numbers—the SNP won all but three Scottish seats—represented a victory beyond most nationalists' dreams. Yet their modest demeanour suggested that, for now, they have come to London to do business, not to cause chaos.
5月11日，支持蘇格蘭民族黨（SNP）的56名國會議員（與其他選區相比，屬于小隊人馬，且不包括斯特金本文）在該黨領袖妮古拉·斯特金的陪同下出席下議院議會，斯特金此次未穿格子呢服裝。支持民族黨人數的增加表示民族黨獲得了大部分民族黨成員夢寐以求的勝利。這些國會議員舉止彬彬，顯示出此次倫敦之行是為正事而來，并非蓄意搗亂。
A decade ago the scale of the SNP's success would have been seen as a mandate for independence. Alex Salmond, Ms Sturgeon's predecessor, drew that conclusion again. But Ms Sturgeon claims separation is not high on her agenda. She has even played down the idea of a speedy introduction of full fiscal autonomy, seeking only a promise from Westminster to start handing more powers to Scotland.
蘇格蘭民族黨此次贏得選區多數議員的支持，這在十年以前可能預示著全民授權并支持民族獨立。民族黨前任領袖亞歷克斯·薩蒙德亦有同感。但斯特金夫人聲稱，她現在的工作重點不是民族獨立。對于加快實現財政完全自主的計劃，她一直是輕描淡寫，自己別無所求，只愿英國政府承下一諾，賦予蘇格蘭更多自治權。
Part of the reason for the more cautious tone is that the collapsing oil price and the decline of offshore revenues has made independence seem like a dubious proposition. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), an independent think-tank, calculates that, under full tax autonomy,Scotland would need to find an additional 7.6 billion (12 billion) to close its deficit to British levels, a gap it reckons will widen to 9.7 billion, or 4.9% of Scottish GDP, by 2019-20. To accept tax autonomy without continuing to receive the substantial subsidy Scotland currently gets from the Treasury is “tantamount to economic suicide”, says George Kerevan, an SNP politician.
斯特金請求的語氣增添了幾分謹慎，究其原因，一是因為：在石油價格狂跌、近海工程收益減少的情況下要求獨立，未免少些理直氣壯，多些未知冒險。據英國財政研究所（非官方智囊團）統計，如果蘇格蘭實現稅收完全自主，欲達到英國政府的赤字水平，需另外拿出76億英鎊（折合美元120億）以彌補空缺。該機構認為，英格蘭與國家的赤字差距到2019至2020年間會擴大到97億英鎊，占英格蘭GDP的4.9%。蘇格蘭民主黨成員喬治·克瑞文表示：“英國財政部目前給予蘇格蘭大量財政補貼，如果蘇格蘭實現稅收自主，且終止補貼，這無異于斷送蘇格蘭經濟的發展前程。”
Another explanation for the caution is that, after last September's independence referendum, in which 55% of Scots voted to remain part of Britain, David Cameron, the prime minister, promised to give Scotland new fiscal powers. Over the next five years the Scottish government is due to gain control of earned-income taxes, air-passenger duty and a levy on aggregates such as sand and gravel. It will also be assigned the revenues of the first ten percentage points of value-added tax and oversee around 2.5 billion, or about 15%, of welfare spending. The IFS reckons this will make Ms Sturgeon responsible for raising about half of what her government spends.
斯特金話語謹慎的另一個原因在于，去年九月份全民公投決定蘇格蘭獨立與否，55%的蘇格蘭人投票反對，英國首相戴維·卡梅倫至此承諾賦予蘇格蘭新的財權。今后五年，蘇格蘭政府有望實現收入所得稅、航空旅客稅、使用沙土碎石等統一征收稅的自主征收。同時，增值稅首次征收的10%的收入歸蘇格蘭政府所有，并負責監管約25億英鎊的福利支出（約占總支出的15%）。財政研究所認為斯特金夫人為此需要增加蘇格蘭政府半數支出費用的收入。
She and her party nonetheless could, and probably will, give Mr Cameron a headache. Though not rushing now to achieve it in full, Ms Sturgeon has made clear that she wants even more fiscal control. She would like to oversee most welfare spending, as well as corporation tax and national-insurance payments. The SNP hopes to reduce employers' contributions to national insurance in order to compensate for raising the minimum wage. Ms Sturgeon wants the floor to rise from 6.50 per hour now to 8.70 by 2020. This, she says, would enable her to boost the economy, reduce the deficit and move towards full tax autonomy more quickly.
然而，斯特金夫人為首的政黨可能會讓卡梅倫首相憂心苦惱，“噩夢”成真。她雖不急于獲得財長全部自主的權利，但其事先已明確表示欲取得更多財權。她有意監管福利支出的多數費用，以及企業所得稅、國民保險費。蘇格蘭民族黨希望減少雇主繳納的國民保險費，從而借此提高最低工資水平。斯特金夫人希冀，至2020年英格蘭人的酬勞從每小時6.5英鎊漲到每小時8.7英鎊。她認為，這一計劃不僅有助于繁榮經濟，減少財政赤字，還會推動稅收完全自主計劃早日實現。
The new SNP intake can also be expected to make full use of their privileges as the third-largest party at Westminster. MPs will pose tricky questions and use committee chairmanships to harry the government, especially over austerity. Ms Sturgeon argues that such actions would not just be on behalf of Scots but for all Britons. She sees Labour entering “a period of introspection” and claims the SNP will be “the principal opposition” in Westminster.
另外，據預計，擁護蘇格蘭民族黨的新晉議員會充分利用民族黨在英國議會作為第三大政黨的優勢。各位國會議員屆時拋出棘手話題，憑借議會主席的地位為難政府，尤其是在財政緊縮問題上大做文章。斯特金夫人表示，他們如此行為不僅僅是為了蘇格蘭，更是為了維護英國的整體利益。她認為工黨進入了“反省期”，蘇格蘭民族黨在議會中會坐占“第一大反對黨”的位置。
This leaves Labour in a bind over whether to position itself to the SNP's right or left. But it also poses a dilemma for Mr Cameron. He could concede to what the SNP wants, in order to avert further fracturing between Scotland and England—but that would imply the Scots were right to elect them. Or he could dig in and allow himself to be caricatured as the Scots' enemy. Either way, Ms Sturgeon looks to be sitting pretty.
工黨為此左右為難，對于民族黨不知是支持，還是反對。“無獨有偶”，卡梅倫首相亦不知如何是好。他可以遂民族黨所愿，以免加深英格蘭與蘇格蘭之間的隔隙。但這等于承認蘇格蘭人民選民族黨執政為正確之舉。如若不然，他可以“變本加厲”，在諷刺漫畫中與蘇格蘭相互敵視。無論卡梅倫選擇哪種道路，斯特金夫人都顯得坐鎮不亂。本文原文轉自《經濟學人》 翻譯：石海霞
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