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Politics
英國政壇
Downtrodden Labour
飽受壓迫的工黨
Why Conservatives are talking up a Labour-SNP coalition
保守黨吹捧工黨和蘇格蘭國民黨聯盟的原因
My wee prime minister
我的迷你首相
SPRING is in the air in Westminster and the Conservatives are upbeat. Having lagged behind the opposition Labour Party in polls for most of the past five years, they are now narrowly ahead two months before the general election. The Tories'clear messages on the economy mainly account for these green shoots (see Bagehot). But an additional explanation is emerging 400 miles to the north: the rise of the secessionist Scottish National Party (SNP).
韋斯特敏斯特宮的春天近在眼前，保守黨也很歡樂。連續五年的民調都落在對手工黨之后，終于在大選前兩個月有了微弱的勝出。保守黨在經濟上明確引導是最近經濟萌芽的原因。（見白芝浩專欄）但在英國以北400英里的地方還有一個額外的解釋：崇尚獨立的蘇格蘭國民黨的興起。
Since the 1980s Scotland has been Labour’s granite-like electoral base. Though often run by Scots, the party hardly had to think about the country north of Hadrian’s Wall. When the SNP failed last year to win a referendum on Scottish independence, Labour expected it to fall apart, remembers one shell-shocked former staffer. Instead the opposite happened. The SNP has hoovered up the sprawling, leftish Yes (to independence) movement and turned it into a campaigning machine. The party’s membership has grown from 26,000 to 100,000 in six months. Polling published by Lord Ashcroft, a Tory peer, on March 4th suggests that it is on track to take most of Labour’s 41 seats in Scotland, including some of its oldest strongholds.
自上世紀八十年代起，蘇格蘭就是工黨堅定不移的選民基地。雖然這個黨派是由蘇格蘭人領導，但很少關注哈德良長城以北的國土。去年，蘇格蘭國民黨在蘇格蘭獨立的公投中敗北，工黨就開始期待其會分裂,將其視為已戰斗疲勞的前職員?？商K格蘭國名黨不僅沒有四分五裂，反倒吸納了周邊雜亂無序的區域，同意了左翼獨立運動，并且將其變為一個競選機器。六個月間，黨派成員從2.6萬人增長到10萬人。保守黨人阿什克羅夫特勛爵在3月4日發布的民調顯示，該黨要獲得工黨在蘇格蘭41個席位中的大多數指日可待，包括一些資歷深厚的據點。
This helps the Tories in several ways. The first is practical: Labour must divert scarce campaigning resources north to fight for once-safe Scottish seats. The second concerns electoral arithmetic. Even if no party emerges from the election with a majority, as looks likely, the one with the most votes will enter coalition talks with momentum and authority. Nick Clegg, the leader of the centrist Liberal Democrats, says that he will speak to the biggest party first—as he did in 2010, when he formed a coalition with David Cameron’s lot. The fewer seats Labour wins, the better the Tories'chance of being in that position and thus of holding power.
這點在很多方面都對保守黨頗有助益。第一點非常實際：工黨必須把少的可憐的競選資源轉移到北部，以競爭安全的蘇格蘭席位。第二點則是選舉的票數。即使沒有黨派在選舉中贏得大部分支持率，看起來，獲得大部分選票的黨派，將會加入與權力當局的聯盟商談中。中立的自民黨人尼克·克雷格稱，他會先與最大的黨派商談，正如他在2010年與戴維·卡梅倫的陣營聯合那樣。工黨贏得的席位越少，保守黨占據優勢進而掌權的可能性就越大。
But the main reason for Conservative cheer is that the nationalists'rise may force Labour to seek an accommodation with the SNP. The latest projection by Election Forecast, a group of political scientists, suggests that Mr Miliband will lack the numbers to govern without the backing (or, at least, tolerance) of the party’s MPs. Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP’s leader, appears to be preparing for such an arrangement: she has assured Scottish voters that her party will never prop up the Conservatives, and on March 6th confirmed that its opposition to Britain’s nuclear deterrent would not block a deal with Labour.
但保守黨高興的主要原因是，民族主義者的發展可能會迫使工黨尋求與蘇格蘭國名黨的和解。由一群政治研究學者組成的選舉預測組織發出的最新預計顯示，如果米利班德失去了工黨議員的支持（或說至少是忍耐），他將很難以這么少的人數來掌管工黨。蘇格蘭國民黨的領導人尼古拉·斯特金似乎正為這樣的安排做準備：她安撫蘇格蘭選民稱，她領導的政黨絕不會支持保守黨，并在3月16日證實，蘇格蘭國民黨對于英國核武器威懾的反對，并不會阻斷其與工黨的協定。
Tory strategists believe that the prospect of a Labour government reliant on the support of MPs who would shatter the United Kingdom horrifies the English. They are gleefully talking up a Labour-SNP deal in the hope that it will cost Labour votes south of the border. In February Mr Cameron claimed that the two leftish parties were “halfway up the aisle” and preparing for “a honeymoon in North Korea”. On billboards in English marginal constituencies a Conservative poster depicts a huge Mr Salmond with Mr Miliband in his pocket.
保守黨的謀士認為，工黨的前景需得依靠廣大議員的支持，這些議員能夠不再讓英國國民再害怕英國政府。保守黨議員興高采烈地談論工黨與蘇格蘭國民黨的聯合，希望這樣的聯合會消耗國境線以南的工黨選票。今年二月，卡梅倫聲稱，這兩個左翼政黨只是“路才走了一半”，而且是準備“在朝鮮度蜜月”。英國邊境選區的一個廣告牌上貼了一張保守黨海報，上面畫的是一個巨大的薩爾蒙德把米利班德裝進了口袋里。
Tactically, this is smart. Labour frontbenchers wriggle when asked about the SNP, denying that a deal is “on the agenda” but refusing to rule it out. Yet the Tories'ruse could backfire. Humza Yousaf, an SNP bigwig, claims that Mr Cameron’s theatrics will “only increase our support in Scotland”. He has a point. Last September the prime minister begged the Scots to stay, saying that he would be “utterly heartbroken” if they seceded. Yet his recent attacks on the SNP can only strengthen the nationalists'claims that the English and the Scots are better off apart. Mr Cameron may protest that he is merely trying to win a second term. But at what cost to the union?
在策略上，這點非常聰明。當被問及蘇格蘭國民黨時，工黨的前座議員，都顧左右而言他，否認這個交易“已經提上日程”，同時又拒絕排除這樣的可能性。然而保守黨的計策也可能事與愿違。蘇格蘭國民黨的要員胡扎·尤薩夫聲稱，卡梅倫的表演“只會提高我們在蘇格蘭的支持率”。他說得不無道理。去年九月，首相請求蘇格蘭人留下，他說，如果蘇格蘭脫離，他會“徹底心碎了”。但他最近對于蘇格蘭國民黨的打擊，只能加強民族獨立者對于英國蘇格蘭最好分開的宣言。卡梅倫也許會抗議道，他只是想連任。但是這對聯盟而言要消耗多少呢？譯者 周雨晴 校對 王穎
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