評論
打印
Housing
住房
Nimble opposition
靈活的反對
A new study confirms suspicions about what drives planning decisions
一項新的研究證實了對規(guī)劃決定的推動力的質(zhì)疑
ON A road called Glyders, in Benfleet, east of London, it looks as though every house is on the market. But the crucial words “for sale” are missing from the estate agents'signs, and have been replaced with “RAGE:Residents Against Glyders Expansion”. The locals are protesting against plans to build 35 new homes on farmland at the end of their road. “Look how narrow this road is,” says Susan Baillie, whose husband, Robert, runs the campaign. “It will never cope with the additional traffic.” The Baillies organised the signs, which are sponsored by the estate agent. The irony seems lost on the residents.
在Glyders，這個位于倫敦東部本弗利特的一條大街上，每一間房屋似乎都在等待它的買主。但是房屋中介的招牌上卻偏偏缺少重要字眼“待售”，取而代之的是“暴怒：當?shù)鼐用窬芙^Glyders的擴大?！碑?shù)厝丝棺h在這條街道末端的農(nóng)田上建造35棟新屋的計劃?！罢埧纯催@條街有多窄，”蘇珊貝利如是說，而她的丈夫羅伯特正是這次抗議行動發(fā)起人。“它負擔不起額外的交通了。”貝利想到利用招牌，這一舉措得到了房屋中介的大力支持。諷刺的是此舉會導(dǎo)致住戶的流失。
Local opposition to new housing developments is common across Britain. It has long been argued that such opposition—NIMBYism to its critics—is linked to home ownership. Homeowners, unlike distant landlords, vote in local elections and receive planning consultations in their postboxes. They lose out from development in multiple ways. Loss of green space reduces their quality of life and increased supply of housing suppresses prices. Landlords managing diversified portfolios are less exposed to the value of one property. The idea that planning decisions are driven by the desire of homeowners to maximise house prices is known as the “home-voter hypothesis”.
當?shù)胤磳π碌姆课蓍_發(fā)政策在英國是很常見的。一直以來都認為這種反對—批評家稱之為鄰避主義—都與房屋所有權(quán)息息相關(guān)。與過去的地主不同，房主參與當?shù)剡x舉和規(guī)劃咨詢。在開發(fā)過程中他們在多方面有所虧損。綠地的損耗降低了他們的生活質(zhì)量，而且增加的房屋供應(yīng)壓制了房屋價格。管理多樣投資的房東對于一棟房屋的價格會有所疏忽。房主們意欲提高房屋價格從而驅(qū)使決策產(chǎn)生，這種想法被稱之為“房屋投票假說”。
On October 24th the Institute for Government, a think-tank, released a study supporting this theory with data. It looked at English local planning authorities (LAs) between 2001 and 2011 and found that for every additional ten percentage points in the proportion of homes that are owner-occupied, 1.2 percentage points were knocked off growth in the housing stock. Average growth was 8.8%, so the effect was marked. The authors are cautious about making a causal claim, but the correlation was observed after controlling for the number of planning applications and the amount of available land. A rough calculation suggests that, without the NIMBY effect, one million more homes would have been built during the period.
在10月24日，智庫政府研究所（IFG）公布了一項佐以數(shù)據(jù)支撐此次理論的研究。通過2001到2011年對英國地方規(guī)劃局的觀察發(fā)現(xiàn)，屋主自用的房屋占所有房屋比例中每增加10個百分點，住房存量的增長就會下跌1.2個百分點。平均增長是8.8％，所以此種現(xiàn)象的影響是顯而易見的。至于是否可以得出兩者存在因果關(guān)系的結(jié)論，作者持保留態(tài)度。但是在控制了規(guī)劃申請和可用土地的數(shù)量后，相關(guān)效果還是很容易看到的。若不考慮鄰避效應(yīng)，一項粗略計算表明，在2001至2011年間大約有逾一百萬棟房屋建成。
That would have helped alleviate an acute shortage of British housing. In 2004, a government report by Kate Barker, an economist, found that 240,000 new homes were needed every year. Only 138,000 homes were built in 2013. Due to the shortfall, houses are eye-wateringly expensive and, since 1952, home ownership has become a more distant prospect for almost every new generation (see chart).
這將有助于緩和英國緊張的住房短缺問題。在2004年，經(jīng)濟學家凱特巴克做出了一份政府報告，發(fā)現(xiàn)每年所需住房數(shù)為24萬。而僅有13.8萬棟房屋在2013年建成。由于房屋稀缺，房屋的價格也是極其昂貴的，自1952年以來，房屋所有權(quán)已經(jīng)變成了每個新一代人更加遙遠的追求。
In a book released in September, Ms Barker argues that England's planning system is fragmented and slow. LAs are required to have a medium-term plan which meets targets for development agreed with central government. But both the overall plan and individual developments can be held up. LAs find it difficult to work together on proposals which cross boundaries, and vacillate on whether to build on brownfield land, which has old buildings on it, or greenfield sites, which developers prefer. The green belt around many towns constrains development. And locals see few of the fiscal benefits from new homes, so there is little incentive for them to build.
在9月份發(fā)表的書中，巴克表示，英國的規(guī)劃系統(tǒng)如今零散又低效。各個當?shù)匾?guī)劃局（LAs）都要求一個能符合中央政府批準的發(fā)展目標的中期計劃。但總體規(guī)劃和個體發(fā)展都會被阻斷。LAs發(fā)現(xiàn)那些跨界的提案很難兼并施行，所以躊躇著是要在棕色地帶推到舊宅筑新房還是在那些開發(fā)商鐘愛的市郊綠區(qū)蓋房子。許多城鎮(zhèn)城市綠化帶的存在約束著發(fā)展。當?shù)厝艘苍谛路课萁ㄔO(shè)中看不到些許財政利益，因此，他們根本沒有建造房屋的動力。
Thankfully, public attitudes are shifting. Rising house prices used to be celebrated as a sign of economic strength; now, most see expensive homes as bad for Britain. Politicians are responding: both big parties have promised more building.
慶幸的是，公眾的態(tài)度正在轉(zhuǎn)變。房屋價格看漲在過去被看作是經(jīng)濟實力的一種標志。而如今，大部分人認為房價高對英國是不利的。政治家們?nèi)缡腔卮穑簝纱笳h已承諾會有更多的住房建筑。
This shift is not on display in Benfleet, which is part of a local authority—Castle Point—with the joint highest rate of home ownership in the country. Admiring the view from one resident's garden, it is hard not to sympathise with the local campaign. But every home was a newbuild once, and the costs of the housing shortage are not visible from an Essex garden.
此種轉(zhuǎn)變并未出現(xiàn)在本弗利特， 它是卡斯爾波恩特 (英國國會選區(qū))的一部分，而且在鄉(xiāng)下有著房屋所有權(quán)的高聯(lián)合率。從一居民的花園外眺風景，你會感覺很難不同情當?shù)乜棺h運動。但若是這里的每一處房屋都是一次建成，那么從埃克斯花園向外環(huán)望，很難看出住房短缺的損失。譯者：張娣 校對：朱大素
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