評論
打印
Immigration policy
移民政策
Ready, steady, do nothing
萬事俱備，但缺行動
Barack Obama defers his promise to help out illegal immigrants
巴拉克·奧巴馬在幫助非法移民走出困境一事上或有違背諾言之嫌
“TODAY, I'm beginning a new effort to fix as much of our immigration system as I can on my own, without Congress,” said Barack Obama in June. Lamenting the refusal of Republicans in the House of Representatives to pass an immigration reform bill, he vowed to use his executive powers to “fix as much of our immigration system as we can”. He vowed to have a plan by the end of' the summer and to implement it “without further delay”. But on September 7th he admitted that he would not in fact do these things until after the mid-term elections in November.
“今天，我開始在沒有國會干擾的情況下盡最大努力最大程度的改革我們的移民制度”奧巴馬六月如是說。為共和黨人在眾議院拒絕通過移民改革法案惋惜之時，奧巴馬發誓要動用他的行政權盡可能地修改他們的移民制度。他承諾在這個夏天制定修改計劃并保證無任何進一步延遲地實施修改方案。然而，9月7日他承認除非九月的中期選舉結束否則他根本無法做這些事。
Some 11.3m immigrants—mostly Spanish-speaking—live illegally in America, according to the Pew Research Centre, a think-tank. That figure is roughly the same as it was when border controls started to tighten dramatically in 2006 or so. The main effect of making it harder to cross the border is that unlawful migrants no longer go back and forth as they used to. A decade ago, a typical migrant had lived in America for nearly eight years. Now the figure is almost 13 years.
根據皮尤調查中心這個智囊團的統計數據，美國大約有1130萬非法移民，這其中大多數是講西班牙語。這一數據與2006年前后高調地開始嚴格進行邊境管制是的數據大致相同。嚴格驚醒邊境管制的主要的效果是那些非法移民將不再像他們過去那樣來回于兩國。十年前，移民在美國居住將近8年，現如今這一數據是將近13年。
Only a fraction of those people will ever be sent home. Mass deportation would knock 1.5% off GDP each year and destroy 3.6m jobs in California alone, estimates Raúl Hinojosa-Ojeda of the University of California, Los Angeles. Mr Obama wants Congress to create a path for law-abiding, tax-paying migrants to become citizens. Since it won't, he has ordered the authorities to focus on deporting migrants who commit serious crimes.In 2012 he gave protection from deportation to around 1m people who had migrated illegally to America as children. A new executive order could extend that to parents.
僅僅只有一小部分的非法移民會被遣送回國。加利福尼亞大學洛杉磯分校的Raúl Hinojosa-Ojeda估計，將非法移民強制驅逐出境，僅就加州而言，將導致GDP每年下降15%，減少360萬工作崗位。奧巴馬希望國會為那些遵守法律、積極納稅的移民成為正式公民開辟一條通道。由于這一提議遭否決，他只能命令當局致力于將重罪犯驅逐出境。。2012年他讓將近100萬在孩童時期就非法移民美國的人免遭驅逐出境的懲罰。新的行政命令將會將該政策擴大覆蓋面至父母親。
Over the summer, however, thousands of Central American children surged across the border, creating an impression of chaos that Republican ads exploited. Vulnerable Democrats begged Mr Obama not to do anything that could be portrayed as soft on border security. He has obliged.
然而，整個暑假成千上萬的中美洲兒童偷渡渡過國界，上演了共和黨人廣告中描述的那種令人印象深刻的轟動效應。倍受攻擊的民主黨人懇求奧巴馬不要再做任何事情以免造成自己在處理邊界安全一事上立場軟弱的處境。他已經答應這一請求。
Supporters of immigration reform chide the president for breaking his promises. Many are also furious that he has deported more than 2m people since taking office. But some think he is being shrewd. If he tries to fix the system just before an election and Democrats lose, they may conclude that immigration reform is toxic and abandon it. Far better, some argue, to wait.
移民改革的支持者們斥責總統失信于民。有些人甚至對其上任后將200多萬人驅逐出境甚為氣憤。但是有些人則認為總統為人甚是精明。倘若他恰好在選舉之前修改移民制度并且民主黨在選舉中失利，他們便可以下結論稱移民制度改革是有害的并就此打住。另一些人則認為最好的方式就是什么也不做，干等。
Delay may not hurt Democrats much. Latinos are angry, but historically they have been less likely to vote in mid-term elections than whites. In 2010 just 31% of them turned out, against 49% of non-Hispanic whites. This year, Democrats are counting on the Hispanic vote to clinch victory in only one Senate race, in Colorado. And so the system remains broken.
拖延或許不會讓民主黨過于難堪。拉丁裔人都憤怒了，就歷史經驗而言，跟拜仁相比，他們不太可能參與中期選舉。2011年他們中僅有30%的人投票，而非西班牙裔白人則達到49%。今年，科羅拉多的參議院競選中，民主黨人都寄希望于西班牙裔的選票以獲得勝利。這樣的話移民制度依然漏洞百出有待修訂。
