評論
打印
Turkey's president
土耳其總統
Erdogan on top
高高在上的埃爾多安
It would be better for Turkey if the presidency remained mainly ceremonial
土耳其的總統職務保持禮儀性豈不是更好
RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN, Turkey's prime minister, certainly knows how to win elections. Since he helped to found the Justice and Development (AK) party 13 years ago, he has scored eight victories in a row. On August 10th he made it nine, winning Turkey's first direct election to the presidency, with a crushing 52% of the vote. Given what have been broadly fair polls, with mostly high turnouts, nobody can seriously challenge Mr Erdogan's democratic credentials.
自從13年前他幫助籌建了正義發展黨（AK）后， 他便連續8次贏得大選。因此，土耳其首相埃爾多安當然知道如何贏得大選。8月10日，他再次獲勝，以52%選票的壓倒性優勢贏得土耳其第一屆總統直接選舉。鑒于選舉一直是廣泛公平的，投票率高，沒人能真正地質疑埃爾多安的民主資質。
His achievements in over 11 years as prime minister are equally impressive. Since AK came to power in November 2002, economic growth has averaged some 5%. Inflation has been tamed. The army has been brought under greater civilian control. Mr Erdogan has made more progress than any previous political leader in giving Turkey's Kurds greater rights. In 2005 he achieved something that had eluded all his predecessors: the start of membership talks with the European Union.
11年來，他作為首相的成績同樣斐然。自2002年AK黨執政以來，經濟年均增長5%左右，通脹得到抑制，軍隊管理十分民主。與土耳其之前的領導相比，在給予土耳其庫爾德人更大的權利方面，他取得了更多的進步。2005年，他成就了一件足以讓其他前任相形見絀的偉績：開啟加入歐盟的談判。
What makes this more troubling are Mr Erdogan's plans to give the presidency, hitherto a ceremonial job, far more power. He wants to turn it into an executive position, as in France. To do this he must change the constitution, which usually needs a two-thirds majority in parliament. AK is unlikely to achieve that on its own, but it could secure enough votes by doing a deal with the Kurdish party. That would put Mr Erdogan in sight of his goal of an enhanced presidency, backed by a pliable prime minister, in which he could stay up to and beyond 2023, the centenary of Ataturk's republic.
然而，當埃爾多安意圖給予總統這一禮儀性的職位更多權力時，這件事情就變動的不那么簡單了。他想將總統職位轉變成行政職務，如法國一樣。為了達到這一目的，他必須修改憲法，而這需要議會2/3的多數同意。AK黨不太可能只身實現這一目標，但是與庫爾德黨派合作則可能獲得足夠的票數。而此舉，則會使埃爾多安對總統職權加強這一意圖昭然若揭。表面上是無所事事的總理，這一職位他可以保持到2023年，恰好是土耳其共和國的百年紀念。
Such an outcome is unappealing to those who believe in political pluralism. Powerful presidencies can work, but they need to be constrained by strong institutions of a sort Turkey still lacks. Mr Erdogan's own autocratic tendencies compound this problem. But why should he pay any heed? There are two answers: a vulnerable economy and his own legacy.
這樣的結果對于那些信奉政治多元化的人來說毫無吸引力。強大的總統職權可以發揮作用，但是他們需要的是強有力的凝聚力的約束，而這正是土耳其所缺少的。埃爾多安的獨裁趨勢使這一問題更加復雜。但是，他為什么要在意這些問題呢?原因有二：經濟脆弱，個人政治遺產。
The biggest reason for Mr Erdogan's poll victories is his delivery of rapidly rising living standards. But the economy is slowing. A gaping current-account deficit makes the country highly dependent on capital inflows; when global interest rates rise, Turkey could suffer. And it is caught in a “middle-income trap”, losing competitiveness in the basic goods it produces, but unable to move up to higher-tech ones. To keep growing, Turkey needs both liberalising reforms and foreign capital. Mr Erdogan has shown scant interest in reform. And although foreign investors stomach autocratic regimes around the world, they don't much care for social instability of the sort that Mr Erdogan's type of polarising politics usually portends.
埃爾多安選舉獲勝的最重要因素是他迅速提高了土耳其人的生活水平。但是，經濟發展依然緩慢。目前財政赤字的漏洞高度依賴流入的資本，一旦國際利率上調，土耳其就得遭殃。而且，土耳其目前正面臨“中等收入困境”，生產的日用品失去競爭力，但又無法像高科技頂端轉移。為了保持增長，土耳其不僅需要自由化改革，還要外資注入。埃爾多安對改革已經極力反對。盡管世界范圍內，外資與獨裁政權水火不容，但外商們也不會在乎埃爾多安的極權政治導致的經常性社會動蕩。
The hope that Turkey will one day join the EU has also kept investors interested. This is where Mr Erdogan ought to think of his legacy. Building giant infrastructure projects is all very well, but if he is to underpin Turkey's modernisation he needs to pull it back onto its European course. EU membership is a remote prospect just now, but moving away from Europe's liberal democratic norms will make it an impossibility.
期待某天土耳其加入歐盟的愿望也讓投資者們興趣大增。這就是埃爾多安應該考慮的他留給土耳其的遺產。大興土木雖然無過，但如果他想為土耳其的現代化奠基，則應該將土耳其拉回歐洲發展的軌道。歐盟成員國的身份目前為時尚早，但偏離歐洲自由民主的規則會使這以目標更加遙不可及。
Gul, not Putin
古爾，不是普京
The first test of Mr Erdogan's intentions will be the choice of prime minister. This week Turkey's outgoing president, Abdullah Gul, threw his hat into the ring (see article). Not only is Mr Gul widely respected, both at home and abroad, but he has also briefly held the job before. Moreover, as a co-founder of the AK party, he has enough political clout of his own to stand up to Mr Erdogan. Mr Erdogan should accept that a strong prime minister would be better for Turkey. If he insists on having a puppet instead, people may start to compare him not to Ataturk but to his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.
埃爾多安的意圖面臨的第一項考驗便是總理的人選。本周，土耳其即將卸任的總統——阿卜杜拉?古爾宣布參與競選。古爾不僅在國內外廣受尊崇，而且之前也出任過一段時間的總統。再者，作為AK黨的共同創立者，他擁有足夠的政治影響力與埃爾多安抗衡。埃爾多安應該接受這一點，即一位強大的總理更適合土耳其。如果他堅持將此視為傀儡，民眾將開始把他比作俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾普京，而非與土耳其國父阿塔圖爾克相提并論。
