評論
打印
The euro-zone economy
歐元區經濟
Cyclical stagnation
周期性蕭條
The recovery grinds to a halt
復蘇放緩
THIS week's figures for the euro-zone economy were dispiriting by any measure. An already feeble and faltering recovery has stumbled. Output across the euro area was flat in the second quarter. That followed a poor start to the year when the single-currency club managed to grow by just 0.2%.
無論怎么看，歐元區本周的經濟數據都是令人失望的，疲軟脆弱的復蘇已經搖搖欲墜。第二季度歐元區的GDP增長速度為零，而在此之前的第一季度，這個單一貨幣組織僅僅實現了0.2%的增長。
There were some bright spots in the bulletin of misery. Both the Dutch and Portuguese economies, which had contracted in the first quarter, rebounded, growing by 0.5% and 0.6% respectively. Spanish growth picked up from 0.4% in the first quarter to 0.6% in the second. But these perky performances were overshadowed by the poor figures recorded in the three biggest economies. Italy, the third largest, had already reported a decline of 0.2%, pushing it into a triple-dip recession. France, the second biggest, continued to stagnate. But the real blow came from Germany, the powerhouse of the euro zone, where output slipped by 0.2%.
在整個歐元區的陰霾中仍有幾縷陽光。荷蘭和葡萄牙繼第一季度的經濟萎縮后，在第二季度有所反彈，增長率分別達到0.5%和0.6%。西班牙的經濟增速也從第一季度的0.4%攀升到第二季度的0.6%。然而，這些姣好的成績被歐元區中最大的三個國家的經濟數據沖淡了。意大利，歐元區的第三大經濟體，已經公布了0.2%的衰退，這使得意大利陷入了自2008年經濟危機以來的第三個衰退期。法國，歐元區的第二大經濟體，其經濟增長仍然保持停滯。但是最致命的一擊來自德國，作為歐元區的驅動機，其GDP下滑了0.2%。
The setback may reflect some temporary factors, as workers took extra time off after public holidays. German output was also depressed by a fall in construction, some of which had been brought forward to the first quarter thanks to warm weather. This effect should also be temporary. However, the tensions between Europe and Russia over Ukraine and the resulting sanctions may adversely affect German growth in the coming months.
這次衰退可能反映了一些時事問題，比如工人罷工。德國的蕭條部分是因為建筑業的下滑，由于氣候原因一些工程已經被提前到第一季度實施。這些因素都是暫時的。然而，歐盟和俄羅斯在烏克蘭事件上緊張關系，以及由此產生的制裁可能在未來一段時間內對德國的經濟增長有不利影響。
The new GDP figures are yet more evidence that the euro-zone economy is in a bad way, not least since it has come to rely so heavily upon Germany, which had grown by 0.7% in the first quarter. It is not only that growth is evaporating; inflation is also extraordinarily low. In July it was only 0.4%, far below the target of just below 2% set by the European Central Bank (ECB). Consistently low inflation has prompted fears that Europe will soon slide into deflation. Prices are already falling in Spain and three other euro-zone countries.
新的GDP數據還表明，歐元區經濟增長呈現頹勢，尤其是它對德國強烈的依賴--德國在第一季度的增速為0.7%。經濟惡化不僅是因為這個增長速度已經不復存在了，還因為極低的通脹水平。七月份的通脹水平僅為0.4%，遠遠低于歐洲中央銀行（ECB）設立的略低于2%的目標。持續的低通脹水平讓人擔憂歐洲可能即將進入通貨緊縮期。西班牙以及其他三個歐元區國家的物價早已經開始下降了。
Deflation would be particularly grave for the euro area because both private and public debt is so high in many of the 18 countries that share the single currency. Even if inflation is positive but stays low it hurts debtors, as their incomes rise more slowly than they expected when they borrowed. If deflation were to set in, the effects would be worse still: when prices and wages fall, debts, which do not shrink, become harder to repay.
通貨緊縮對于歐元區是非常嚴重的，因為在使用單一貨幣的18個國家中，私人債務和公共債務大都相當繁重。即使是偏低的正水平通脹也會傷害到債務人，因為他們收入的增長要比借債時候的預期慢。如果通貨緊縮真的到來，其影響將會很糟糕：當物價和工資都降低了，債務卻并不同時縮減，因此償還債務變得更加困難。
The poor GDP figures will intensify pressure on the ECB to do more. Already in June it lowered its main borrowing rate to just 0.15% and became the first big central bank to introduce negative interest rates, in effect charging banks for deposits they leave with it. That has helped bring short-term, wholesale interest rates close to zero and has also weakened the euro. Both these effects will help to bolster the economy and restore growth.
低靡的GDP數據將迫使歐洲央行(ECB)采取更多的措施。早在今年六月，就將基準利率低到了0.15%，成為引進負利率的第一大央行，實際上對銀行存留的資金收取利息。這項舉措使得短期大額利率接近零，同時歐元走弱。這兩種效應都有助于經濟復蘇。
As well as these interest-rate cuts, the ECB announced that it would lend copiously to banks for as long as four years, as long as they pledged to improve their own lending performance to the private sector. The plan, which resembles the Bank of England's “funding for lending” scheme, has some merit but may not boost lending as much as expected due to the feeble state of the banks. It will also take a long time to work its way through the economy.
除了降息之外，ECB申明，四年內，只要商業銀行保證增加對私有部門的信貸，央行將提供充足的資金。類似英格蘭銀行的“融資換貸款計劃”，這個計劃已經小有成效，但是由于銀行本身元氣已傷，其促進貸款的效果可能不如設想中的那么好。并且，這幾個計劃從開始實行到發揮作用需要很長一段時間。
The ECB's critics say that this is not enough and urge the central bank to introduce quantitative easing—creating money to buy financial assets. The ECB is likely to hold off; it seems to consider QE as a weapon of last resort. For his part Mario Draghi, the central bank's president, urges countries like Italy and France to get on with structural reforms that would improve their underlying growth potential. Patience on all sides is wearing thin.
歐洲央行的批評者認為這些措施并不夠，并且他們要求央行推出量化寬松政策--創造貨幣來購買金融資產。ECB的態度是盡可能延緩推出QE，在它看來，QE是最后的武器。央行行長馬里奧·德拉吉就此發表了言論，他鼓勵意大利、法國等國家繼續進行結構化改革以提高其經濟增長的潛力。各方人士對歐元區經濟復蘇都已迫不及待。
