評論
打印
Who supports independence?
誰是蘇獨擁護者？
Yes men
贊成黨
The typical pro-independence Scot is young, male and working-class
支持蘇獨的群體往往年輕，男性居多，中產階級為主
WITH two months to go until Scotland votes on independence, opinion polls are in one sense rather disappointing. With only minor blips, they continue to suggest that three out of five Scots favour sticking with Britain. Nothing that nationalists or unionists say seems to budge opinion. But, as the polls pile up, something else is becoming clear: exactly how the country divides.
距離蘇格蘭公投僅有兩個月之遠，但從某種角度而言，民眾投票結果卻十分不盡如人意。仍顯示五分之三的蘇格蘭民眾不愿從大不列顛國獨立出來。無論民族主義者亦或是聯合主義者，都無法說服改變那些民眾的想法。但隨著調查結果的累積，人們找到了一些新的發現，一些跡象且越發的清晰：即全國意見具體如何分布。
Middle-class voters turn out to be more conservative than working-class ones. In the seven polls taken so far this year by ICM, the “no” camp has led by 19 points among the former but by four among the latter. The well-to-do are also firmer in their views, vacillating much less than working-class voters over the past few months.
調查數據顯示中產階級比工人階級更為保守。截至當前，今年由ICM發起的7場調查活動中，中產階級反獨率高達19%，而工人階級僅4%。同時，調查還發現富裕群體立場比較堅定。近數月來，其立場變化遠沒有工人階級明顯。
Unsurprisingly, given the class profile of “yes” support, the pro-independence camp is strong in Scotland's industrial heartland and weak in the areas farthest from it: the border with England to the south and the mountains and islands to the north. ICM's polls suggest that “no” leads by 13 points on average in the northern Highlands and Islands. In the most pro-independence region, Glasgow, it lags “yes” by a point.
毫不意外地是，即便工人階級展現出贊成黨形象，支持獨立的陣營仍集中在蘇格蘭的工業核心區，而在它的邊遠地區，支持蘇獨的呼聲遠要小得多：英格蘭南部邊境一帶和北部山區及島嶼附近。英國調查機構ICM發起的民意投票結果顯示，在北部高地和島嶼地區，反對蘇獨的人口比例一般為13%。哥拉斯加最為擁護蘇獨一舉，其反對蘇獨的人口比例也就低了一個百分點，為12%。
A Scot's appearance is another clue to his views. Grey hair and wrinkles suggest a “no” supporter. The young are keener on independence, which is one reason nationalists pushed to allow 16- and 17-year-olds to vote in the referendum. Some polls suggest people simply become more unionist as they age; others hint that people in their teens and 20s are slightly more conservative than people in their mid-20s to mid-30s.
蘇格蘭人民的長相也表明其意見想法。棕色頭發和皺紋表現出他們是不支持蘇格蘭獨立的。年輕一代更喜歡獨立，正是如此，民族主義者允許16到17歲的公民參與公投。一些民意調查結果已經表征出，人們只是隨著年齡的增長，漸漸會增強民族統一意識；也有些調查顯示，青少年及20出頭的人會比25-35歲之間的人稍微保守些。
But perhaps the starkest demographic divide between “yes” and "no" supporters is sex.Polls consistently show that women are cooler on independence than men. Peter Kellner of YouGov, another pollster, says this is part of a broader pattern. Past opinion polling suggests that women are less supportive of wide-eyed or gung-ho policies in general, whether the issue is Scottish independence or foreign military adventures.
然而，或許性別差別才是支持和反對黨間最明顯的分水嶺。調查結果始終表明，女性對獨立的熱情度往往不及男性。來自網上市場研究公司YouGov 的彼得?科爾Peter Kellner，表示性別差只是更廣義范圍下的一部分。過去的民意調查活動也顯示，女性群體一般不大支持，無論是蘇獨還是外國軍事冒險。
The fact that Scots are divided in so many ways means that “yes” and “no” supporters do not exist in separate bubbles. Rather, they rub up against each other-in the same towns, sometimes even in the same households. Perhaps that explains why one in four say they have rowed over independence with family members and friends.
蘇格蘭劃分方式如此多元化，這證明蘇獨支持黨和反對黨并非獨立存在。相反，他們是關系密切，相互影響著—在同一小鎮，有時甚至在同一屋檐下。也許，那就是為何有1/4的人宣稱，自己在蘇獨一事上和家人朋友分道揚鑣。
