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Deleveraging in America
美國“去杠桿化”進程
Debt calm
債務削減
Consumers are borrowing again, but the economy has been slow to respond
雖然消費者們再次把手伸向了“信用卡”，但經濟增長的回應卻很慢
ECONOMISTS trying to explain the feeble pace of America's recovery regularly blame deleveraging: the multi-year process of paying off the debts accumulated before the crisis. Yet for households, at any rate, deleveraging has stopped. Mortgage debt bottomed out in the middle of last year and is now rising again. Student and car loans are rising briskly. Only home-equity and consumer loans continue to shrivel. In absolute terms, household debt is rising again (see chart). Relative to household income, it peaked at 135% in 2007, fell to 109% at the end of 2012, and has roughly stabilised around that level.
那些想要解釋美國經濟復蘇進程放緩的經濟學家們，一如既往地表示該問題的罪魁禍首乃“去杠桿化”一個長年以來的過程，以償還經濟危機發生之前所積累的債務。然而對于普通民眾來說，無論從何種角度來看，“去杠桿化”已成過去。抵押信貸規模在去年中期觸底反彈，而今年則再次呈現出增長的態勢。學生貸款和車輛貸款量迅速上升。而只有房屋抵押貸款和消費信貸仍保持“萎靡不振”。如果按絕對量來計算，美國家庭信貸負擔再次處于上升階段。相對于家庭收入水平而言，2007年上述絕對量的指標為現有的135%，而到了2012年末則跌至現有的109%，并隨即粗略地穩定在該水平。
Banks, after years spent rebuilding capital and appeasing regulators, are ramping up lending. Total bank credit grew at a 7.5% annual rate in the second quarter, the fastest since 2007, with growth in most categories of loans. “There are lots of people out there, lots of banks out there with a lot of liquidity, competing for loans,” the chief financial officer of Wells Fargo, one of the country's biggest lenders, recently told analysts. Competition to lend to car buyers has become so fierce that the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, a regulator, has warned of deteriorating standards, with loans routinely exceeding 100% of the car's value.
多年來，銀行一直都在重新積累資本，都在對市場監管者進行安撫工作，而現在則開始擴大自己的信貸業務規模。在本年第二個季度里，銀行總放貸量錄得7.5%的提升，且大部分資金級別的貸款業務均得到了增長，而這是自2007年以來的單季最高增長速度。富國銀行的CFO近日向分析師透露：“現在不僅有著大量需要貸款的人，同時也有大批具有充足流動性并且能夠提供貸款的銀行存在，后者要通過競爭來搶奪客戶。”目前，汽車貸款市場的競爭已經十分激烈，作為監管者的美國貨幣監理署正警告著信貸機構，要他們留意日益下降的放貸審核標準，因為汽車貸款的規模已經一如既往地突破了車輛銷售總額。
That borrowing is on the rise again should come as no surprise. Two studies, one by two economists, Carmen and Vincent Reinhart, and one by the McKinsey Global Institute, a think-tank within a consultancy, both found that prior episodes of post-crisis deleveraging lasted six to seven years on average—just like the present one.
信貸總量的再次攀升并不應該讓人感到驚訝。一份由兩位經濟學家Carmen和Vincent Reinhart完成的報告，以及另一份由麥肯錫公司內部的智庫麥肯錫全球研究所所完成的報告，兩份資料都發現了在上一次的“后經濟危機時期”當中，“去杠桿化”的債務削減總體來說持續了六到七年，正如此次經濟危機所發生的一樣。
In theory, deleveraging should end when debts are at a sustainable level, but that is difficult to measure. A recent working paper by three economists at the European Central Bank points out that the debt consumers can bear varies with interest rates, house prices, the rate of home-ownership, the share of the population aged 35-54, the deposit first-time house-buyers are required to make and the foreclosure rate. American debt exceeded the “equilibrium” level by some 25% of household income at the start of the recovery. Since then an improvement in many of these variables has raised the equilibrium even as debt has fallen, bringing the two into line.
理論上來說，債務削減應該在負擔的債務本身能夠持續周轉為基準，在該標準下停止進行，但這是很難衡量的一件事。一份由三位歐洲中央銀行的經濟學家所完成的工作報告中指出，消費者們能夠負擔的債務各自不同，而影響該結果的因素包含了利率、房屋價格、住房擁有率、35歲至54歲人口的比例、購房首期款的支付率和房屋贖回率等等。美國人們的債務規模超過了“均衡”收入水平，在經濟復蘇的初期負債總量超過了全國人民總收入的25%。從那時開始，上述影響信貸的因素都在逐漸向好的一面發展，而隨著債務水平的下降，收入與貸款的平衡也開始逐漸恢復。
The end of deleveraging has not stoked the economy as much as many hoped. In the first quarter of the year the economy shrank by 2.1% on an annualised basis. But there may just be a lag: growth is the second quarter was a much perkier 4%. Goldman Sachs projects that debt will rise faster than income over the next few years, keeping growth above 3%.
信貸削減的終結并沒有像許多人所期待的那樣給經濟體打下強心針。在本年的第一季度里，經濟總量下降的幅度約為年化2.1%。但這也許只是發生了滯后的現象：第二季度的經濟增長態勢比前面一個季度要好得多，達到了4%。高盛集團（Goldman Sachs）預計債務總量將會在未來幾年里取得比收入增長更高的增速，將保持在3%以上。
However, Richard Dobbs of McKinsey points out that although consumers are no longer cutting back, the public sector is only just beginning to tighten its belt and businesses never stopped adding to their debts. He reckons overall deleveraging, including firms and government, could go on for another four or five years.
然而，麥肯錫公司的Richard Dobbs表示，雖然消費者們不再省吃儉用地過日子，但社會公共部門的財政緊縮計劃只是剛開始，而企業們也不會停止增加自身的負債。他認為，包括公司和政府在內的機構，都會在未來的四年或者五年內保持“去杠杠化”的狀態。
