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Deutsche Bank
德意志銀行
Hollow legs
胃口不小
Europe's biggest bank pours money into investment banking
歐洲最大的銀行向其投行業務注資
WHEN Deutsche Bank tapped shareholders for 3 billion last year, it hailed the end of a “hunger march” for capital. In fact, it had only whetted its appetite. On May 18th it announced a plan to raise a further 8 billion. In addition to placating regulators who are demanding ever-more-solid balance-sheets, Deutsche needs the extra nourishment to keep up with its investment-banking rivals on Wall Street, a competition most of its European counterparts have abandoned.
去年德意志銀行向股東要求注資30億歐元，這標志著資本“饑餓游行”的結束。事實上，這僅僅是開胃菜。在5月18日，德意志銀行宣布計劃募資80億歐元。此次籌資一方面是為了安撫對資產負債表有著更加嚴苛要求的監管機構歐洲央行，另一方面是為了趕上華爾街的那些投行對手而補充額外的營養，盡管一些歐洲同行已經放棄了同他們的競爭。
Deutsche has long lacked the buffers of some of its rivals. The extra cash, part of which will come from Qatar's royal family, will put paid to questions about its resilience—at least for a bit. A finding that it fiddled currency markets, or a further fine for its part in fixing LIBOR, a benchmark interest rate, could cost it 3 billion. A restructuring will eat up a further 2 billion. And changes in how its trading book is valued will rob it of 2 billion when calculating regulatory ratios. Add that up and its core Tier 1 ratio, a measure of the losses it can safely endure, may slip from 11.8% after the capital-raising back towards the current 9.5%. Using the leverage ratio, of equity to assets, it is still lagging its rivals, particularly American ones such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase.
從上圖可知，長期以來德意志銀行都缺乏像部分競爭對手所擁有的緩沖資金。部分額外資金是來自于卡塔爾的皇室家族，這能解決資金彈性的問題——至少能解決一部分。另一則發現是德意志銀行因涉嫌擾亂貨幣市場，或者因涉嫌操控LIBOR而被處以30億歐元的罰款。一項資產重組會再吞掉20億歐元。在計算監管比率的時候，交易賬戶評估方式的改變將會使德意志再次損失20億歐元。將這些因素匯總，德意志銀行的一級資本充足率將從籌資之后的11.8%下降到現在的9.5%。從權益資本杠桿比率的角度來看，德意志銀行仍然落后于他的競爭對手們，尤其是美國的對手比如高盛和摩根大通。
Doubling down on investment banking seems to have been the only strategy available to Deutsche: the division accounts for the lion's share of its profits. Its co-chief executive, Anshu Jain, an habitué of trading floors, was never likely to retreat from the business the way most big European banks have. Two weeks ago, Barclays, which for decades mimicked Deutsche's drive to bulk up in investment banking, announced it would instead start cutting back. UBS and Credit Suisse, two Swiss rivals, have already shrunk their investment-banking arms.
增加對投資銀行業務的投入看起來是德意志銀行唯一可行的出路：因為這是他所有業務中盈利能力最強的部門。德意志銀行的聯合首席執行官Anshu Jain表示，就像一位交易大廳中的常客不會放棄這項事業一樣，德意志銀行也不會像其他歐洲其他大銀行一樣削減投行業務。兩周以前，巴克萊銀行宣布縮減投行業務。而在此之前的幾十年里，巴克萊銀行一直效仿德意志銀行擴展投行業務。兩個瑞士的對手瑞士銀行和瑞士信貸，也已經縮減其投行部門。
The gambit is not a one-way bet. The juiciest bits of investment banking—the trading of bonds, currencies and commodities together known as “FICC”—have been in the decline in recent years. If that is merely a cyclical downturn in response to ultra-low interest rates, as some posit, Deutsche's investment should pay off handsomely when the good times roll again. But others see an irreversible slump prompted by post-crisis regulations.
這一招不是一個單向的賭博。投行業務中最大的一塊內容—債券交易，貨幣和商品，統稱為“固定收益”—在近年來已經呈現下降趨勢。如果正如一些分析所說這只是針對超低利率的周期性衰退，那么當牛市回歸，德意志銀行的投資會得到豐厚的回報。但是其他人卻認為這是金融危機后的監管帶來的不可逆轉的衰退。
There are other risks, too. Though Deutsche may be the last man standing in Europe, plenty of American banks are active in London and Frankfurt. It will soon come under the regulatory purview of the European Central Bank, which is likely to be more exacting than BaFin, the German overseer. If Mr Jain is held responsible for the various market scandals facing Deutsche, his departure could prompt a shift in strategy.
當然還有其他的風險。盡管德意志銀行有可能成為歐洲唯一一個從事投行業務的銀行，大量的美國銀行仍舊在倫敦和法蘭克福表現活躍。并且德意志銀行很快就要面臨來自監管機構歐洲央行的壓力測試，而歐洲央行很有可能比德國金融監管機構BaFin更加嚴格。如果德意志銀行和其他銀行一樣，是由聯合首席執行官Jain先生來承擔德意志銀行所面臨的各種市場丑聞，那么他的離開可能會引起戰略調整。
Unlike credit cards at Barclays and wealth-management at UBS, Deutsche does not have other strongly profitable units that could make up for FICC's retreat. That is one reason why its decision to raise cash took nobody by surprise. It has waited a long time to admit the inevitable: its share price has fallen by a quarter over the past four months. Shareholders' own hunger march, in other words, goes on.
不同于巴克萊銀行的信用卡業務和瑞士銀行的財富管理業務，德意志銀行并沒有其他強勢的盈利項目能夠補充固定收益的下降。這也是為什么大家對德意志銀行決定籌資并不覺得意外的原因之一?；I資措施是經過很長時間的考慮之后才被認為是唯一的方法：在過去的四個月里，德意志銀行的股價已經下跌了四分之一。換句話說，屬于股東們自己的“饑餓游行”還在繼續。
