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Asian business
亞洲商業(yè)
A world to conquer
征服世界
Asian business is reforming. Its emerging multinationals will change the way we all live
亞洲商業(yè)正在改革，其新興的跨國公司將改變我們的生活
BUSINESS power follows economic power. In the 1920s British firms owned 40% of the global stock of foreign direct investment. By 1967 America was top dog, with a 50% share. Behind those figures lie cultural revolutions. The British spread the telegraph and trains in Latin America. American firms sold a vision of the good life, honed by Hollywood and advertising. Kellogg's changed what the rich world ate for breakfast, and Kodak how it remembered holidays. The next corporate revolution, as we describe in our special report this week, is happening in Asia. This too will change how the world lives.
商業(yè)能力緊隨經(jīng)濟實力。1920年代，英國公司擁有40%的全球海外直接投資股票。截至1967年，美國以50%的市場份額雄霸世界。這些數(shù)字的背后是文化革命。英國將電報機和鐵路傳至拉丁美洲。美國公司則通過好萊塢和廣告營造了一副美好生活的憧憬。家樂氏公司改變了發(fā)達國家人們桌上的早餐，柯達則定格了人們對于假期的美好回憶。下一場公司革命，就如同我們在本周的特別報道中描述的一樣，將發(fā)生在亞洲。這也同樣會改變我們生活的世界。
Arrested development
發(fā)展受阻
Asian capitalism has brawn. The continent's share of global GDP has risen from a fifth to 28% since 1984. It is the world's factory, a diverse region of rivals bound together by supply chains. But it lacks brains and global savvy. Asia smelts 76% of the world's iron and emits 44% of its pollution, but hosts only a tenth of its most valuable brands and venture-capital activity. Its multinationals punch below their weight, owning 17% of the world's foreign direct investment. Wealthy Japan and South Korea have a cast of superstars, such as Toyota and Samsung. But few other firms command the world stage.
亞洲資本強勁有力。亞洲大陸占全球GDP的份額自1984年以來已經(jīng)增長了五分之一，至28%。 這里是世界工廠，由供應鏈連結(jié)起來的競爭多元化的地區(qū)。但是它“力大無腦”，缺乏對全球市場的領悟能力。亞洲熔煉了76%的世界鋼鐵并排放了44%的污染物，但是只掌握了十分之一最有價值的品牌和風險資本活動。這里，跨國公司的實力與其規(guī)模并不相稱，只擁有世界17%的外國直接投資。富裕的日本和韓國有眾多的明星企業(yè)，例如豐田和三星。但是，其他能夠在世界舞臺上占領一席之地的公司卻是屈指可數(shù)。
That is because Asian capitalism has been too cosy. In the boom between 2002 and 2010 easy profits were made at home—growth was fast and labour and credit cheap. Two-thirds of big Asian firms are state-controlled or “business houses” (often family-run). These incumbents tend to be chummy with the government and get cheap land and loans. Half of all billionaire wealth in Asia has been made in sectors, such as property, that are prone to cronyism, versus 15% in the West. Outside Japan, Taiwan and South Korea, innovation has been neglected. Mahindra & Mahindra and Great Wall, car champions from India and China, have a combined research-and-development (R&D) budget that is 3% of Volkswagen's.
這是因為亞洲的資本主義是“溫室里的花朵”。從2002到2010年，唾手可得的利潤在家里就能輕松賺到——快速的增長以及廉價勞動力和信貸。三分之二的亞洲大公司都是國有的或者家族式經(jīng)營的商號。它們都與政府有著密切的關系，能夠得到廉價的土地和貸款。亞洲近半數(shù)的億萬富豪都是從政府有關部門發(fā)家的，例如極易產(chǎn)生裙帶關系的房地產(chǎn)業(yè)，相比之下在西方只占15%。除了日本、臺灣和南韓之外，創(chuàng)新都遭到了忽視。馬恒達和長城這兩個印度和中國的汽車業(yè)龍頭，其研究開發(fā)經(jīng)費加起來也不過是大眾汽車的3%。
For Western firms, Asia's shortcomings have been a relief. The iPhone shows why: although it is made by the hands of Chinese workers, it is the brains behind it, at Apple and at high-tech component-makers in the rich world, that take nearly all the profits. Now, however, the rules that have governed Asian capitalism for the past two decades are changing. Asian firms are having to become brainier, more nimble and more global.
對于西方公司來說，亞洲的短板令他們從中得利。iPhone就是和很好的例子：盡管都是出自中國工人的雙手，但從中賺取幾乎全部利潤的“大腦”，是背后的蘋果公司和發(fā)達國家的高科技元件市場。然而，這個曾經(jīng)在過去二十年里管理著亞洲資本的游戲規(guī)則正在改變。亞洲企業(yè)正在變成更為靈活和全球化的“大腦”。
The immediate motivation is underperformance: growth has slowed, and Asian shares have lagged American ones by 40% in the past three years. Three deeper trends are also at work. First, labour costs are rising, not least in China, and East Asia's workforce is ageing. Second, Asia's middle class is becoming more demanding. They are no longer satisfied with fake Louis Vuitton handbags; they want clean air, safe food and more leisure, and are madly in love with the internet. Third, competition has intensified from Western multinationals, which have invested $2 trillion in Asia. They also now use the same cheapish labour, and they generally have much more sophisticated supply chains, brands and R&D.
最直接的動力是表現(xiàn)不佳：增長在減緩，在過去的3年里，亞洲的份額滯后于美國40%。三個更深層次的趨勢正在起作用。首先，勞動力成本在上升，尤其是在中國，東亞的勞動力正在面臨老齡化。其次，亞洲中產(chǎn)階級的需求正在變高。他們不再僅僅滿足于山寨LV手包，他們想要干凈的空氣、安全的食品和更多的休閑娛樂，同時也越來越迷戀網(wǎng)絡世界。第三，來自西方跨國公司的競爭愈發(fā)激烈，他們已經(jīng)在亞洲投資超過2萬億美元。他們現(xiàn)在也有相對廉價的勞動力，除此之外他們大都還擁有成熟的供應鏈、品牌和研發(fā)。
With their home markets no longer quite so safe, Asian firms are adapting—and becoming stronger. In response to rising wages, production (of clothes, for example) is shifting from China to South-East Asia and Africa, led by Japanese firms which are also worried about a war with the Middle Kingdom. Chinese firms such as Haier, which makes fridges, plan to automate factories and get into cleverer products. And as the Chinese push upmarket, the Koreans are redoubling efforts to stay ahead. Samsung's spending on R&D rose by 24% in 2013. If they get their act together, India and Indonesia, Asia's bumbling giants, will attract lots of factory jobs. Their best firms are also getting brainier. Once dismissed as “body shops”, India's IT-outsourcing firms are now leaders in big data.
亞洲企業(yè)的本土市場不再是高枕無憂，所以他們也在適應——同時也在變強。由于上升的工資成本，產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)（例如服裝）正在從中國轉(zhuǎn)到東南亞和非洲，日本公司由于擔心與中國將爆發(fā)戰(zhàn)爭所以首先采取了這種措施。中國公司例如生產(chǎn)冰箱的海爾，計劃加強工廠自動化并生產(chǎn)更智能的產(chǎn)品。隨著中國高端市場的發(fā)展，韓國正竭力保持其領先地位。三星在2013年的研發(fā)經(jīng)費增長了24%。如果印度和印尼能共同進退，這兩個笨手笨腳的亞洲巨人將會吸引大量的工廠就業(yè)。他們中最好的公司也正變成“大腦”。曾經(jīng)被忽略為代工車間的印度IT外包公司現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)成為大數(shù)據(jù)的領軍者。
Rising consumer aspirations are helping internet firms disrupt traditional industries. Alibaba, a Chinese internet giant, is expanding into banking, telecoms and logistics. Analysts think it might be worth $150 billion, more than China's steel industry. China's drive to reform its state-owned firms is meant to make them more responsive to customers. Xi Guohua, the boss of China Mobile, plans to give shares to his staff. Across Asia demand for health care is likely to create a whole new generation of companies—the industry comprises only 4% of the region's stockmarket, compared with 12% in the rich world.
消費者日益增長的需求意愿正幫助互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)打破行業(yè)傳統(tǒng)。阿里巴巴作為一個中國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)巨頭，已經(jīng)將業(yè)務擴張到銀行業(yè)、電信業(yè)和物流業(yè)。分析師認為其市值可能達到1500億美元，超過了中國鋼鐵行業(yè)總和。中國實施國企改革的決心意味著國企要更多的回應消費者的需求。中國移動董事長奚國華計劃讓自己的員工持有本企業(yè)的股份。縱觀亞洲，對于醫(yī)療保健的需求很有可能會創(chuàng)造一批全新的公司——該行業(yè)的份額只占地區(qū)股票市場的4%，而在發(fā)達國家則占12%。
In order to challenge foreign rivals, Asian firms are globalising, following the example of Samsung and Toyota. Lenovo, a thriving Chinese computer firm, has Western-style governance and many foreign staff. Huawei has overtaken Ericsson in telecoms equipment. India's Sun Pharma is now one of the world's biggest generic-drugs firms. Tencent, China's Facebook, has hired the footballer Lionel Messi to advertise its services abroad. Sprawling business houses are evolving into focused multinationals. Tata Sons is now a superb IT firm and luxury-car maker tied to a ragbag of Indian assets.
為了應對國外競爭對手，亞洲公司（例如三星和豐田）正在全球化。作為一家繁榮興旺的中國計算機企業(yè)，聯(lián)想擁有西式的管理和眾多外籍員工。華為在電信設備方面也超越了愛立信公司。印度的太陽藥業(yè)現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)躋身為全球最大的非注冊商標類藥品公司之一。騰訊是中國版的facebook，聘任足球明星萊昂內(nèi)爾·梅西為其服務進行海外宣傳。粗放式發(fā)展的商業(yè)模式已經(jīng)進化成集中而專業(yè)的跨國企業(yè)。塔塔之子公司這家優(yōu)秀的IT公司和豪華汽車制造商，已經(jīng)成為印度資產(chǎn)大雜燴中的一員。
Cereal killers
麥片殺手
Asian business needs to do much more. Big firms are spending 50% more on R&D than five years ago, but must get better at breakthrough innovations. Conglomerates must focus on a few areas where they can achieve global scale. Governments can do their bit, by freeing state firms from meddling and ensuring that powerful incumbents do not stifle entrepreneurs.
亞洲商業(yè)前路依然漫長。跟5年前相比，大公司的研發(fā)開支增加了50%，但仍需突破性的創(chuàng)新。企業(yè)集團需要集中優(yōu)勢到某一些領域并做大到國際規(guī)模。政府能幫忙的地方就是解放國企、停止插手并確保大權在握的現(xiàn)任領導不會扼殺企業(yè)的發(fā)展。
Western firms should pay attention. In some industries—aircraft manufacturing, for example—the barriers to entry are still immense, but in other sectors brands and technology will no longer be a shield from emerging Asian competition. The threat to low-paid Western jobs may recede. Haier's Chinese workers are paid 25% of what its American workers get, up from 5% in 2000. Instead it may be copywriters, scientists and designers who feel the chill of competition from the East.
西方企業(yè)需要注意。某些行業(yè)（例如航空制造業(yè)）的準入門檻仍然很高，但在其他領域，品牌和科技不再是阻擋新興亞洲競爭對手的避風港。西方國家低收入工作所面臨的威脅可能會減少。海爾中國工人的收入是美國工人的25%，自2000年以來增加了5%。相反的，廣告文案、科學家和設計師這些人更有可能需要面對來自來亞洲的競爭。
History suggests consumers will adapt fast. In 20 years, miracle cures for the old will come from Japan, the best web apps from India and couture from China. And cornflakes, once a cutting-edge food, will be rivalled by congee and dosas, sold in boxes by a global brand. Asian capitalism will change the world—even, maybe, what it has for breakfast.
歷史證明，消費者需要迅速適應新情況。在未來20年，治愈老人的醫(yī)療奇跡將發(fā)生在日本，最好的網(wǎng)絡應用程序來自印度，而高級時裝則來自中國。玉米片這個一度被認為是高科技的食品，將被裝在盒子里、貼著全球品牌的稀飯和印度薄餅所取代。亞洲資本將改變世界——甚至有可能是桌上的早餐。
