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America and South Asia
美國和南亞
Infernal triangle
壞到底的三角關系
A history of America's tangled dealings with India and Pakistan
美國應付印巴關系—亂如麻的歷史
A friendly wave from Mr Sharif
謝里夫揮舞著手臂以示友好
Avoiding Armageddon: America, India and Pakistan to the Brink and Back.By Bruce Riedel.
書名：《逃離浩劫：美印巴三國又退到了懸崖邊上》
THE recent election of a new government in Pakistan led by Nawaz Sharif seems to bode well for an easing of tensions on the subcontinent. When Mr Sharif was last in office, in 1999, he achieved a breakthrough in relations with India. That, however, was soon followed by the most recent of the four wars the two countries have fought. Undaunted, he says again that he wants to make friends with India.
目前由納瓦茲謝里夫領導的巴基斯坦展開了新一輪政府大選，這次大選似乎很好地預示了南亞次大陸緊張局勢有緩解的趨勢。上一次擔任總理一職還是在1999年，謝里夫當時在處理與印度關系上取得突破性進展；雖然成果很快就由印巴四次戰爭所取代。如今謝里夫毫不氣餒的再一次表示要同印度做朋友。
Five years ago, the last time a new Pakistani government took over, it too promised a new era in relations. That came to naught when a terrorist onslaught on the city of Mumbai was carried out by Pakistanis with, the evidence suggests, the help of Pakistan's spy service.
五年前上一屆巴基斯坦新政府剛剛掌權時，政府同樣承諾開啟印巴關系新紀元。隨著孟買遭到恐怖分子的猛烈攻擊，隨著有關證據顯示襲擊是巴基斯坦情報機關提供幫助，巴國人策劃實施，一切都化為泡影。
In his 2009 book, “Deadly Embrace”, Bruce Riedel, a former CIA analyst long at the centre of American decision-making about South Asia, told the unhappy story of America's relations with Pakistan. From the Pakistani side, it was a tale of repeated betrayal by a fickle ally. For the Americans it was one of constant double-dealing from a partner that later could not be trusted with an advance warning of the raid that killed Osama bin Laden in 2011.
布魯斯里德爾之前一直在美國決策中心南亞分部任中央情報局分析員。2009年，里德爾出版《致命的擁抱》，書中講述了關于美巴不盡如人意的關系。從巴國角度看，其實就是一個善變的盟友反復無常上演背叛的故事。從美國的角度看，則是一個伙伴不斷的做一些背信棄義的事情；之后，2011年美國連刺殺本拉登的消息都沒有提前向巴方通告。
“Avoiding Armageddon”, his new book, adds the other two sides of the triangle: the India-Pakistan saga of wars, near- wars and uncertain peaces, and America's scratchy relations with India. Of course, the main obstacle for India has been America's close ties with Pakistan. These present American diplomacy with one of its trickiest balancing acts. Pakistan will remain an important ally as American troops pull out of Afghanistan in large numbers before 2015. Yet, in Mr Riedel's blunt summary: “America and Pakistan are on opposite sides in the Afghan civil war.”
里德爾的新書《逃離浩劫》將三角關系的另兩邊加了進來：印巴長期以來繁冗的戰事、幾次接近戰爭的邊緣和不確定的和平；美印之間棘手的關系。誠然，印度眼里的“沙子”正是美巴之間密切的關系。這些恰恰展示了美國人技術含量頗高的外交平衡手段。2015年美軍從阿富汗撤軍之前，巴基斯坦人仍舊是美國重要的盟友。不過，里德爾毫不掩飾的指出：“美巴雙方之于阿富汗內戰的態度是完全對立的。”
America has also invested heavily in building close ties with India, as a kindred democratic spirit and a counterweight to a rising China. As Mr Riedel points out, Barack Obama is not the first president to try to “have it both ways” in pursuing good relations with both India and Pakistan. Mr Riedel also recalls that American presidential efforts have “consistently failed”.
因為印度與美國有相同的民主理念，可以作為制衡飛速發展中國的棋子，美國同樣花了大力氣建立密切的美印關系。里德爾指出，對于美印和美巴關系，奧巴馬并不是美國歷史上第一位試圖“同時拉攏”的總統。同時他還回憶說美國總統的這些努力總是在“一如既往的失敗”。
So America is in a weak position to influence one of the world's most dangerous potential conflicts. If nuclear war is ever to be fought, India and Pakistan are the most likely battlefields. India showed remarkable restraint after the 2008 Mumbai attack. It would find it hard to do so again. Pakistan would lose a conventional war with India, so it might be tempted to use its nuclear arsenal, which it is expanding fast.
這樣說來，美國即是在以一個弱勢的角色，想去影響世界上最危險的潛在沖突。如果世界爆發核戰爭，印巴絕對是第一戰場。印度在2008年孟買遭襲后顯出了異乎尋常的自制力。但是，如果我們希望印度繼續克己，當真難上加難。巴基斯坦和印度開戰，絕對不會擁有打常規戰爭的機會，所以巴國也會動用自己的核武器儲備，動用本國擴充迅猛的核武儲備。
Mr Riedel, like most analysts, is better at describing why it is so difficult to repair India-Pakistan relations, and why it would be so desirable to do so, than at charting how. But he has presented a cogent argument that America—and other outside powers—should be trying harder.
與大多數分析家一樣，里德爾也更擅長去形容一番為什么印巴關系難以修復，為什么兩國沖突不可避免，而不是仔細觀察，尋找解決之道。好在里德爾展示了一個令人信服的論證，即美國和其他外部勢力應該再加把勁。
