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Finance and economics
財經商業
Free exchange
自由兌換
Money from nothing
無中生錢
Chronic deflation may keep Bitcoin from displacing its fiat rivals
慢性通縮的比特幣可能無法取代其法定對手
BITCOIN, to its most ardent fans, is more than a useful way to pay for drugs.
比特幣對其鐵粉來說可不僅僅只能用來買違禁藥品，
It is also a technological marvel that could disrupt much of the consumer-finance industry.
它是一個可以攪擾大多數消費金融業務的技術奇跡。
But is it money?
但是，它就是貨幣嗎？
The Bitcoin economy keeps growing, despite the periodic disappearance of large quantities of currency in hacker heists.
盡管大量比特幣在黑客搶劫案中周期性消失，其經濟卻仍保持增長。
The total value of Bitcoins in circulation has risen to $7.9 billion, from just $490m a year ago,
比起一年前的4.9億美元，比特幣如今的流通總價值已上升至79億美元，
while daily transaction volume is up by almost 60%.
日交易量更是增長了近60％。
If Bitcoin aspires to match dollars and euros for money-ness,
但如果比特幣想成為與美元和歐元一般的貨幣，
it will need to be more than just a Mastercard for nerds.
它可不能僅僅滿足于只是充當網絡玩家手中的萬事達卡。
Economists reckon money is anything that serves three main functions.
經濟學家認為，貨幣有三個主要功能。
It must be a medium of exchange, which can reliably be swapped for goods and services.
首先，它必須是一種值得信賴的、可用于交換商品和服務的交換媒介；
It should be a stable store of value,
其次，應當是穩定的儲值手段，
enabling users to tuck some away and come back later to find its purchasing power more or less intact.
使用者們將部分貨幣儲存起來，其購買力在之后一段時間內大體保持不變；
And it should function as a unit of account:
最后，它應該能充當計價單位，
a statistical yardstick against which value in an economy is measured.
用一個基準統計尺度衡量經濟體的價值。
The American dollar meets all three conditions.
美元符合上述這三個條件，
Bitcoin has some way to go.
比特幣則任重而道遠。
Bitcoin does best as a medium of exchange, thanks to its clever technical design.
比特幣的最擅長的交換媒介功能要歸功于其巧妙的技術設計。
Users can quickly move holdings around anywhere in the world.
使用者可以在世界各處快速轉移持有的比特幣。
Rather than relying on central clearing-houses,
相較于傳統貨幣依賴于中央清算機構，
verification of transactions is done by miners, who are compensated for their work with newly created Bitcoin.
比特幣的交易驗證是由用新鑄造的比特幣作為其工作補償的礦工來完成的。
The new money they create adds imperceptibly to Bitcoin inflation,
礦工鑄造的新錢給比特幣帶來小到可以忽略不計的通貨膨脹，
spreading the cost of their work over all users.
其工作成本已分攤到所有使用者身上。
This elegant system makes Bitcoin cheap to use.
比特幣精妙的系統降低了它的使用成本。
Because banks are not needed to confirm legitimate purchases, transaction fees are low.
因為不需要銀行確認其法定購買力，比特幣交易費用十分低廉。
Bitcoin's near-anonymity has also helped drive acceptance among those who would prefer to keep their transactions secret,
此外，比特幣近乎匿名性的特點對那些希望保護交易隱私的人而言無疑具有吸引力，
whether drug-dealers or money-launderers.
比如毒販子或洗錢者。
The combination of functionality and user interest means that people are finding it easier to swap coins for both goods and services and for other currencies.
比特幣將系統功能性和使用者興趣融合在一起，人們用它換取商品和服務乃至兌換其他貨幣變得更加便捷。
This rising credibility as a medium of exchange supports Bitcoin values.
這些都提高了其作為交換媒介的信譽度，從而支撐起比特幣的價值。
Yet Bitcoin is not exactly a stable store of value.
然而，嚴格來講，比特幣不是一種穩定的儲值手段。
It is technically equipped to do the job:
它在技術上所能進行的工作是:
coins saved in an encrypted wallet on a hard drive can be retrieved for later use in purchases.
能保證存儲在硬盤上的加密錢包在有購買需求時隨取隨附，
But the currency's worth is prone to wild gyrations.
但其幣值容易發生劇烈的波動。
Massive Bitcoin heists, like the recent plunder of roughly 6% of outstanding Bitcoins from the Mt Gox exchange,
Mt GOX交易所最近爆出其賬戶上約6％比特幣失竊，
reduce confidence in the currency.
諸如此類的大量比特幣失竊案大大降低了人們對比特幣的信心。
Bitcoin prices dropped by 30% against the dollar in February due in part to the Mt Gox news.
比特幣對美元的價格在二月份下跌30％，部分原因便是GOX公司的這則消息。
In more bullish moments, interest has attracted speculators, sending values soaring—at least temporarily.
在其牛市氛圍中，巨額利益吸引了投機者，令他們推高比特幣價格,至少暫時如此。
Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, twin brothers known mainly for their early quasi-interest in Facebook,
因早期與臉書的恩怨而出名的卡梅倫和泰勒溫克萊沃斯倆兄弟最近宣布，
recently announced plans to launch a Bitcoin tracking fund,
他們計劃推出一個比特幣追蹤基金，
to make it easier for amateur investors to take a punt on the technology.
以使業余投資者更容易賭上一把。
Volatile values could prevent Bitcoin from ever establishing itself as a medium of account.
不穩定的價格可能妨礙比特幣成為記賬單位。
Even the few retailers who accept Bitcoin use other currencies as their principal accounting unit.
即使少數幾個接受比特幣的零售商也是在使用其他貨幣作為基本記賬單位。
Prices are given in a prominent currency and the Bitcoin price fluctuates automatically with changes in the crypto-money's exchange rate.
比特幣的價格由主權貨幣給出，且隨著加密貨幣的匯率變化自動波動。
Similarly, most Bitcoin owners work in jobs with wages paid in traditional currencies.
同樣，大多數比特幣持有者都是在用傳統貨幣支付工資的職位上工作。
So long as Bitcoin buyers and sellers think in euros or dollars it will fall short of money status.
只要比特幣的買賣雙方認同用歐元或美元來買賣比特幣，比特幣的貨幣地位會被削弱。
And until Bitcoin values are less volatile relative to the currencies that now dominate real economies,
除非比特幣的價值趨于穩定，能與當前實體經濟中的主導貨幣相媲美，
users are unlikely to change their monetary frame of reference.
否則使用者們不大可能改變他們的貨幣參考框架。
That may be for the best, given another Bitcoin quirk.
考慮到比特幣的另一則警示，現在的情形可能算是最好的結果。
The currency's money supply will eventually be capped at 21m units.
比特幣的最大貨幣供應量為2100萬個。
To Bitcoin's libertarian disciples, that is a neat way to preclude the inflationary central-bank meddling to which most currencies are prone.
對其自由主義的信徒們而言，這能巧妙地防止比特幣如大多數貨幣般面臨央行插手其中導致通脹。
Yet modern central banks favour low but positive inflation for good reason.
然而，出于某些理由，現代央行青睞于積極的低通脹。
In the real world wages are sticky: firms find it difficult to cut their employees' pay.
現實世界中，企業很難降低其雇員的薪酬，
A modicum of inflation greases the system by,
工人的工資是剛性的，
in effect, cutting the wages of workers whose pay cheques fail to keep pace with inflation.
低通脹實際上削減了那些未能與通脹保持同步的工人們的工資，于整個體系有益。
If the money supply grows too slowly, then prices fall and workers with sticky wages become more costly.
如果貨幣供給增長過慢，價格會隨之下降，工人的黏性工資成本變得更加昂貴，
Unemployment tends to rise as a result.
結果便是失業率趨于上升。
If employed workers hoard cash in expectation of further price reductions, the downturn gathers momentum.
如果雇用的工人預期價格下跌而囤積現金，經濟衰退步伐將加快。
Bitcoin's money supply is still growing;
比特幣的貨幣供應量仍在增長，
its miners are just over halfway to producing the total possible number.
它的礦工們挖出的比特幣剛剛超過其可能總量的一半。
New coins will be minted until around 2030.
新的比特幣的鑄造將到2030年前后達到峰值。
Miners may then introduce transaction fees as compensation for their critical verification work.
此后，礦工可能用交易費用作為其關鍵性認證工作的補償。
More worryingly, deflation is already a reality.
更令人擔憂的是，通貨緊縮已經是個既成事實。
Soaring demand for the currency is partly responsible for boosting its price.
比特幣價格高漲部分源于其需求飆升。
But the knowledge that supply is ultimately finite is also a factor.
但公眾了解比特幣的最終供給量有限也是原因之一。
Digital fetters
數字枷鎖
That other currencies remain the medium of account has so far been the Bitcoin economy's saving grace.
比特幣經濟至今仍然可取在于其他貨幣仍在充當記賬單位。
If Bitcoin matured into a complete currency, with large numbers of workers using it as their medium of account,
如果比特幣進化為完全意義上的貨幣，隨著大批工人將其作為記賬單位，
then its inflexibility could bring economic havoc.
它靈活性的缺乏可能導致經濟災難。
Money-supply shocks, like the disappearance of Mt Gox, could set off a systemic collapse.
就如Mt GOX消失之類的事件，貨幣供應遭到沖擊，直接引發系統性崩潰。
Given a loss of faith in exchanges, users might withdraw their coins in a panic, leading to a dangerous decline in transaction volume.
在信任的交易所中受到損失，使用者可能出于恐慌撤回他們的比特幣，致使交易量降至危險值。
Such hoarding could threaten Bitcoin's status as a medium of exchange, leading to its complete demise as a currency.
這威脅到比特幣作為交換媒介的地位，直接導致作為貨幣的比特幣完全消亡。
Reputable exchanges with large institutional holdings could help stem such panics by advertising a willingness to sell their Bitcoins to meet liquidity demand.
大型機構持有的信譽良好的交易所向公眾表示愿意出售比特幣以滿足流動性需求，有助于遏制這種恐慌。
Yet because Bitcoin reserves are finite, users may not find the promise credible.
然而，由于比特幣的儲量是有限的，使用者可能認為這種承諾不可信。
By contrast, central banks with the inexhaustible resources of the printing press face no such inconvenient constraints.
與此相反，央行的印鈔機可是取之不盡、用之不竭，沒有這般束手束腳。
