評論
打印
Science and technology
科學技術
Athletic performance
運動員的表現
Faster, higher, no longer
更快，更高已成往事
Is it time to update the Olympic credo?
是時候更改奧運會信條了？
ON AUGUST 5th millions of people will watch the 100-metre final at the London Olympics.
數百萬人將在8月5日觀看倫敦奧運會的一百米決賽。
Many will wonder if anyone can repeat Usain Bolt's feat in Berlin in 2009, when the Jamaican clocked 9.58 seconds, lopping 0.11 seconds—aeons in a sprint—off the previous world record, which he set at the 2008 Beijing games.
許多人都想知道誰能重現博爾特奇跡，09年的柏林世界田徑錦標賽上，博爾特以9秒58的成績刷新了自己在08年北京奧運會創下的記錄，這縮短的0.11秒在短跑界已經算是巨大的超越了。
One person who thinks this unlikely is Mark Denny.
有人認為沒人能做到，他就是馬克丹尼。
Another 0.11 seconds would take the time below what Dr Denny, from Stanford University, reckons is the absolute limit of human athletic performance in the 100-metre dash.
在斯坦福大學的丹尼博士看來，再縮短0.11秒就超過了運動員在百米沖刺表現中的極限。
In 2008 Dr Denny published a paper in which he crunched through the highest speeds achieved each year in running events from sprints to the marathon, some dating back to 1900.
2008年丹尼曾經發表了一篇論文，他在其中收集了從短跑到馬拉松等每年的賽跑項目的最佳成績，有的甚至可以追溯到1900年。
A statistical technique called extreme-value analysis discerned trends and the maximum possible deviations from them.
利用一種叫極限價值分析法的統計技術可以看到數據走向，并由此計算出最大可能性。
For the 100 metres, the human speed limit is 10.55 metres per second.
就100米而言，人類的速度極限是每秒10.55米。
This translates to 9.48 seconds.
所以人類一百米最好成績應該是9.48秒。
Predicting the limits of human athletic prowess has been a popular parlour game among number crunchers.
估算運動員的能力極限是數據分析家們最熱衷的室內游戲。
One study from 1992 had female marathon runners drawing level with men by 1998, to complete the 42.195km course in just under two hours and two minutes.
有一項研究在1992年到1998年間以統一標準要求男女馬拉松運動員，即在2小時2分以內跑完42.195。
A more recent analysis from 2004 suggested that male and female 100-metre times will converge in 2156, at 8.08 seconds.
2004年的一項研究分析曾預示，到2156年，男女一百米運動員的成績都將達到8.08秒。
Nowadays sport statisticians view such calculations as flawed because they relied on linear extrapolations.
現在的體育統計員們認為，這些計算還不盡完善，因為它們是以線性推斷為基礎的。
They prefer to fit data to variants of a “logistic” curve.
它們傾向于用數據去迎合“邏輯”曲線上的變量。
This produces an S-shaped plot more in line with the intuition that performance starts off relatively flat.
由此繪制出的S型圖表更符合最初階段相對平庸的表現。
It then goes through a period of rapid improvement as more people take part and more systematic approaches to training and nutrition get more out of them.
隨著參與人數的不斷增多和培養訓練方式的更加系統化，這個圖表會在一段時間內快速上升。
It finally levels off as athletes inch towards the most a body can manage.
但隨著運動員逐漸接近生理極限，圖表會慢慢趨于平緩。
This already seems to be happening.
現在的情況似乎正是如此。
According to Dr Denny female marathon runners have, in effect, reached their peak.
丹尼博士表示馬拉松女運動員實際上已經達到頂峰。
In a 2010 study Geoffroy Berthelot, of France's National Institute of Sport, showed that performance in 23 out of 36 track-and-field events has stagnated since 1993.
法國國家體育協會的杰弗羅伊貝森羅特在2010年的一項調查中指出，在36項田徑賽事中，有23項的運動員表現自1993年以后就一直停滯不前。
The remaining 13 have seen only small increments.
而剩下的13項就算有所提高也是微乎其微。
Pool performance
表現欠佳
In swimming, Dr Berthelot found that all 34 events have seen improvements since 2000, though this may have been aided by the now banned slick, full-body swimsuits which helped competitors in Beijing smash 22 world records.
而在游泳界，貝森羅特博士發現34項比賽自2000年起都有一定進步，雖然這可能要歸功于現在禁止穿光滑的套身泳衣的規定，該規定曾幫助運動員在北京奧運會上打破了22項世界紀錄。
Before 2000, performance in 16 events had been becalmed, though not in the 400-metres individual medley, which may explain why China's 16-year-old Ye Shiwen shaved a second off the world record and in the final leg stoked controversy by being quicker than the men's medley champion.
2000年之前，在16項游泳比賽中，運動員的表現已經出現瓶頸，但是400米混合泳除外，這也許解釋了為什么中國的16歲小將葉詩文落后世界記錄一秒并在最后一圈的速度甚至超過了男子混合泳冠軍的表現會引發爭議。
But Alan Nevill, of Wolverhampton University in Britain, reckons this is within the bounds of possibility for the 400-metres women's freestyle: a proxy, albeit an imperfect one, for the last leg of the medley.
但是英國伍爾夫漢普頓大學的艾倫奈維爾確認為，這在女子四百米自由泳中是可能出現的：雖然不太可能實現，但仍算混合泳最后一圈的一個指標
Drugs and technological tricks aside, ensuring that future Olympics live up to their motto of “faster, higher, stronger” may thus require some other performance-boosting tricks.
拋開興奮劑使用和技術作假不說，要保證以后的奧運會不辜負“更高，更快，更強”的信條，可能要采取一切其他的技巧來促進運動員的表現。
Steve Haake, of Sheffield Hallam University in Britain, points to a notable blip in the figures for the 100-metre dash.
英國謝菲爾德哈勒姆大學的史蒂芬哈基指出了一百米數據中一個明顯的尖峰信號。
In 1968 the average of the best times of the top 25 athletes was much better than trend.
1968年世界排名前25的運動員的最佳成績要比整體趨勢好得多。
This, Dr Haake explains, is because those Olympic games were held in Mexico City.
哈基博士認為這是因為當時的奧運會實在墨西哥城舉辦的。
At an altitude of 2,240 metres the air there is a fifth thinner than at sea level, providing 20% less drag—a boon to sprinters who, unlike their endurance counterparts, run anaerobically, and so need not worry about the diminished supply of oxygen.
在海拔高達2,240的地方，空氣要比海平面稀薄五倍，因此阻力也下降了20%,這是短跑選手的福利，和耐力型長跑運動員不同，他們進行的是無氧跑步，所以也不必擔心供氧不足的問題。
Eight of the 25 best times that year were recorded at the games, and most of the remaining 17 were at higher-than-usual altitudes where athletes prepared for the main event.
當年的25個最佳成績中，有8個打破了世界紀錄，剩下的17個中的大多數都出自海拔較高的地方，那兒的運動員都在為主賽事做準備。
The reduced drag may have helped Bob Beamon's 8.9-metre long jump, in which the American added 55cm to the world record.
也許下降的空氣阻力還幫助鮑勃比蒙取得了跳遠8.9米的好成績，由此美國又為世界紀錄增加了55厘米。
Of that, 31cm was down to a tail wind combined with the altitude.
高海拔加上順風讓鮑勃多跳了31米。
Statistics suggest that feats like those of Messrs Bolt and Beamon are increasingly improbable.
統計數據表明，像博爾特和比蒙這樣的好成績越來越難以出現。
But are they impossible?
但是絕無可能嗎？
Peter Weyand, of Southern Methodist University in Texas, has shown that whereas the peak force which elite sprinters apply to the track is more than four times their body weight, they can squeeze even more out of their muscles.
德克薩斯州南衛理公會教大學的彼得韋安德表示鑒于頂尖的短跑選手所爆發出來的最大力量是其體重的4倍，他們的肌肉還是可以擠出更多力量的。
Dr Weyand found that the forces generated while athletes hopped on one leg as fast as they could on a high-speed treadmill were roughly twice as high as during running at top speed.
韋安德還發現，運動員在一座高速運轉的跑步機上盡可能快的單腳跳躍時所迸發出的力量大約是他們在以最快速度奔跑時所迸發出來的兩倍。
This translated into 30% more ground force.
這就是說運動員在地面奔跑還能爆發出30%的力量。
Since ground force is the main determinant of sprinting speed, Dr Weyand's results imply that human muscles are capable of producing enough oomph to propel sprinters one-third faster than Mr Bolt's 2009 record.
既然地面力量是沖刺速度的主要決定因素，韋安德博士的研究結果表示，人類肌肉還能釋放出足夠的力量，可以幫助運動員跑得比博爾特2009年創下的世界紀錄還要快三分之一。
The reason they have not is that in the normal, two-legged gait the foot is in contact with the ground for only around one-tenth of a second, 0.05 seconds less than when hopping.
之所以沒有出現這樣的情況是因為在正常情況下，雙腿跑動時，腳和地面的接觸時間僅有十分之一秒，比跳躍時少0.05秒。
As a consequence, muscle fibres do not have enough time to contract to their full potential.
所以肌肉組織沒有足夠時間釋放它們的潛力。
Although tapping all this force while sprinting seems biomechanically inconceivable, there may be scope for slight alterations in training and gait, focused on increasing the peak power available to sprinters.
雖然從生物醫學的角度來看，在短跑時發揮出全部力量似乎是難以置信的，但也許在訓練和步伐上還有改進的余地，可以關注如何提高運動員所能調動出的最大力量。
For his part, Dr Denny would be thrilled to see any athlete breach his limits, but he isn't putting any money on it.
如果有人能打破這個極限丹尼博士一定會很激動，但他可不會在這上面押錢。
