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Finance and economics
財經商業
The Hong Kong dollar
港幣
Buy now at 1983 prices
現在入手還是1983年那個價格
After 30 years, Hong Kong's peg to the American dollar is still going strong
三十年后的今天,港幣匯率穩定不變將繼續走強
The skyline has changed but the exchange rate hasn't.
樓高可以變,但是匯率不行。
WHATEVER exchange-rate system a country has, it will wish at some times that it had another one, according to Stanley Fischer, a former central banker.
不論一個國家有什么樣的匯率系統，它一定會時不時希望能變成另一個國家的匯率，前任以色列央行行長Stanley Fischer這么說過。
Many countries find it hard to cope with a floating currency and even harder to stick to a fixed one.
很多國家發現應對一個浮動匯率很難，但是更難的是守住一個固定的浮動匯率。
It is therefore remarkable thatHong Kongthis week celebrated the 30th anniversary of its currency's peg to the dollar.
因此港幣匯率保持不變三十周年令人矚目。
This crude but effective system was adopted on October 17th 1983 to stop a currency crisis.
香港在1983年10月17號采用了這一簡單卻有效的體系成功阻止了匯率危機。
Since then it has survived three American recessions, SARS and Soros, a fabled currency speculator, who attacked the peg during the Asian financial crisis.
自那以后，港幣在三次沖擊—非典，索羅斯基金沖擊，虛構資金投機者，面對亞洲金融危機里美元衰退的情形下屹立不倒。
In recent yearsHong Kong's peg has come under upward,not downward pressure.
最近幾年，港幣的穩定是歸功于向上的沖勁而不是向下的壓力。
In maintaining its fixed rate to the dollar,Hong Konghas imported the Federal Reserve's easy monetary policy despite its healthier economy.
盡管香港經濟更加有活力，它還是一直套用美聯儲的寬松貨幣政策來維持它的固定匯率。
The result has been high inflation and surging home prices.
結果便是高通脹和高漲的房價。
Even as its economy has diverged from America's, it has converged with that of the rest ofChina.
盡管經濟已和美國分道揚鑣，但是香港早就聯合中國大陸。
Yet theHong Kongdollar and the yuan have been growing apart.
現在港幣和人民幣分別都在成長。
The Hong Kong dollar's peg was once also a tight link to the yuan, which was itself pegged toAmerica's currency.
港幣的穩定一度和人民幣有緊密的聯系,而人民幣本身就和美元的匯率掛鉤。
But sinceChinamodified the peg, the yuan has appreciated by over a third.
但是自從中國修改了匯率,人民幣升值了將近三成。
As Mr Fischer suggested, some economists now wish thatHong Konghad another system.
正如同Mr.Fischer暗示的，一些經濟學家現在希望香港換一套系統。
It could, for example, let its exchange rate crawl upwards to curb inflation, asSingaporedoes.
例如，它可以是讓匯率緩慢上升來控制通脹，就像新加坡做的那樣。
Or it could track the rising yuan.
或者它可以追隨人民幣那樣升值。
Eventually it could even adopt the mainland's currency; over 10% of bank deposits inHong Kongare already in yuan.
最后它可能甚至會采用大陸的匯率；將近10%的香港存款現在已經是以人民幣為單位了。
But these alternatives have drawbacks of their own.
但是這些選擇本身也是有自身缺陷的。
Chinamay now dominateHong Kong's trade, but much of that trade is still priced in dollars, points out Li-Gang Liu of ANZ, a bank.
澳新銀行的劉利軍指出，中國可能現在控制著香港的貿易，然而大部分貿易仍然用美元標價。
Besides, the yuan's value is still fixed each morning by China's central bank, and yuan assets are fenced in by capital controls.
除此之外，中國央行仍然保持人民幣的價值不變，那樣通過資產控制來保護人民幣資產。
Pegging to an inconvertible yuan could destroyHong Kong's role as an international financial centre, Mr Liu argues.
劉利軍說道，堅持不變的人民幣匯率可能會摧毀掉香港作為國際金融中心的地位。
Over timeHong Konghas adapted to some of the peg's constraints.
隨著時間的遷移，香港已經適應了一些匯率不變的限制。
Its exchange rate may be rigid, but its other prices and wages are remarkably flexible.
它的匯率可能是僵硬的，但是它的其他價格和工資卻是驚人的靈活變化。
During the financial crisis, even senior civil servants took a pay cut.
在金融危機下，甚至是高級公務員都減薪。
This flexibility allows the economy to adjust quickly to cyclical ups and downs without the help of an independent monetary policy.
這種靈活性就保證了經濟迅速調整到周期性的漲伏里，從而不需要單獨的貨幣政策幫忙。
Prices, particularly for property, do sometimes take on a life of their own.
價格，尤其對于財產，有時確實有他們自己的生命。
But a more flexible exchange rate is not enough by itself to prevent asset-price booms:Singapore's house prices have also soared despite its strengthening currency.
但是更加靈活的匯率政策還不足夠通過自身來避免資產價格爆炸：盡管新加坡有強勢的匯率，它的房價也已經被炒起來了。
And in some cases the currency itself can be the asset that takes off.
并且在一些情況下匯率本身就會讓資產縮水。
The Swiss franc, for example, strengthened dramatically during the euro crisis, prompting its central bank to intervene.
例如，瑞士法郎，在歐債危機里戲劇化的走高，刺激了它的央行去干預。
As nearby countries like India and Indonesia fret about capital outflows and plunging currencies, the stability offered by Hong Kong's peg looks as good on its 30th birthday as it ever has.
就像印度，印尼這些附近的國家就對資本外流和匯率突降感到煩憂，香港的貨幣穩定性永遠看起來像它三十歲生日那樣美。
